Where is Aaron Judge getting his ‘pot of gold’? Landing spots if he ditches the Yankees
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Aaron Judge made the “all-time best bet” on himself. That’s what Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said before the playoffs, and now he’s tasked with locking Judge into a new contract after the sides failed to come to an agreement before the season began. That bet is about to be cashed in with a deal that could make Judge the highest-paid position player in baseball.
The free-agency options if Judge leaves New York are not enticing for the Yankees. That gives Judge leverage over the franchise that must now pay up to make sure it doesn’t lose him. The Yankees have all the resources to make sure that doesn’t happen.
“The money he’s brought to this organization, to this franchise, to the game of baseball, I’m sure just the money alone in September of him chasing 62 was enough to easily pay (him),” Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo said. “There’s plenty of money in this game to be spread around. For him, whatever he gets is going to be astronomical, and he deserves it.”
Re-signing Judge wouldn’t solve all of the Yankees’ problems, but losing him would deliver a significant blow for a team that’s trying to end its World Series drought. Because of what Judge means to the Yankees, it’s difficult to imagine the front office not reaching an agreement on a new deal, but there’s always the possibility he wants to be somewhere else.
If he doesn’t re-sign with the Yankees, here are six possible destinations for Judge, with input from The Athletic’s MLB staff.
San Francisco Giants
From the time that Farhan Zaidi was hired to take over baseball operations prior to the 2019 season, this upcoming winter was supposed to mark a turning point in which the Giants would be major players in free agency. The farm system would be rebuilt. The young and inexpensive talent pipeline would be pumping away. The Giants would be clear of all those bloated contracts (Jeff Samardzija, Johnny Cueto, Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford) and able to access a sizable war chest.
Instead, other than Logan Webb and Camilo Doval, the pipeline hasn’t delivered. Crawford’s MVP-adjacent 2021 season earned him a two-year extension, and like so many players on their roster, the fall back to earth in 2022 resulted in an enormous thud. The Giants, despite having the mother of all outlier seasons when they won 107 games and the NL West in 2021, were back to playing roster footsie last season and needed a flourishing final two weeks just to end the year at .500.
They are not close to the stage they hoped to be at as an organization — to leverage their development and financial might on equal footing with the archrival Los Angeles Dodgers. No matter. It will be incumbent upon them to have a big-splash winter anyway, just for a different motivating factor. The Giants are shedding season ticket holders, their full-season attendance was their lowest in 23 years at their waterfront ballpark, and their fans have been vocal about paying premium prices while watching a collaborative, starless roster. For the first time last season, the star-studded line from Will Clark to Barry Bonds to Tim Lincecum to Buster Posey was broken. The Giants need a drawing card, no matter that the rest of their hand is nearer to a pair of fives than a flush.
It’s fair to assume Zaidi (or any baseball executive) would have reservations about signing a 30-year-old Judge to a monster contract. But it’s also fair to assume he knows the score. The Giants need to make a compelling addition this winter, and Judge, given his stature within the game and his roots in the nearby Central Valley, is the obvious pursuit. Prepare for thousands and thousands of words to be spilled over his courtship. But these are the only ones that will matter. What does he want? Where does he want to play? If he truly wants to leave New York for San Francisco, then you can bet the Giants will be ready with a competitive contract offer.
— Andrew Baggarly
Texas Rangers
“Happy holidays, Rangers fans,” Levi Weaver wrote in the immediate aftermath of last winter’s $561.2 million spending spree. But a year later, all they have to show for landing the likes of Marcus Semien and Corey Seager is a lousy 68 wins. They were nowhere close to making the expanded playoffs. But it’s hard to imagine they’ve made that investment, only to suddenly reverse course and stop spending. Everything the Rangers have done recently points to setting and meeting higher expectations in 2023. They’ve installed a new baseball operations leader in Chris Young, and they’ve hired a new field manager in Bruce Bochy.
The roster cries out for pitching upgrades, and if things break the right way, the Rangers could lure a premier arm like Jacob deGrom. However, the top of the starting pitching market is relatively thin. And if the Rangers miss out on a top arm, doubling down on offense might make more sense than spending big money on second- or third-tier choices.
There would be less expensive bats if the Rangers were to go this route, though you get what you pay for and none of those alternatives would rival Judge’s potential impact. At the moment, according to Roster Resource, the club’s 2023 payroll level would give the Rangers plenty of leeway to spend while remaining beneath the luxury-tax threshold. And ownership has stated publicly an intent to bump up payroll. The key takeaway is that the Rangers are well positioned to spend should they choose to do so.
— Marc Carig
Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s hard to rule the Dodgers out on anyone. They have the resources, and if Trea Turner departs in free agency, a hole in their lineup certainly could be filled by Judge blasting home runs all over Dodger Stadium. They could have an opening in center field if they elect to non-tender Cody Bellinger, meaning Judge or Mookie Betts could play there every day — and yes, Betts could see more time at second base if the Dodgers decide Gavin Lux is the replacement for Turner. But that in itself is a complicated and imperfect solution.
The Dodgers have other issues to address, and though they have made similar overtures over the years (Betts, Freddie Freeman, their pursuit of Gerrit Cole), they have typically tried to leverage their spending might over shorter-term deals than what Judge likely would be seeking.
— Fabian Ardaya
New York Mets
The Mets are operating with Steve Cohen’s deep pockets, and they could benefit from adding another star to their lineup, preferably one with power, making them, at least in a vacuum, a sensible fit for Judge. They were 15th in home runs (171), and the only playoff teams that hit fewer were the Padres, Rays and Guardians. Their offense, which hummed for most of the season until it got inconsistent late and in the postseason, could stand to be more dynamic.
As a great overall hitter and prolific home run hitter, Judge would certainly help solve that issue. Additionally, the Mets have a vacancy in center field with Brandon Nimmo set to be a free agent. Adding a center fielder would squash any talk of moving Starling Marte from right field. Still, the Mets landing Judge seems like a long shot. This is just speculation, but if Judge doesn’t want to be a Yankee, there’s a pretty good chance he just wants to be somewhere other than New York. Not that it should prevent the Mets from trying for Judge, but they have a payroll set to exceed $300 million and a host of their own free agents and holes to worry about.
— Will Sammon
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox outfield posted the fourth-worst fWAR (2.1) in baseball last season, and the team needs another starting outfielder to play alongside Kiké Hernandez and Alex Verdugo after a midseason release of Jackie Bradley Jr. Meanwhile, the lineup lacked its customary pop, as the club hit just 155 homers, 10th among American League teams. Adding power to next year’s team is a priority. So pursuing Judge would seem like the perfect fit, right? It should be — and it still might be — but adding in the outfield isn’t the only big hole the Red Sox have to fill this winter. The Red Sox need at least one top-tier starting pitcher to anchor the rotation and could use at least one more starter. They’re still trying to re-sign Xander Bogaerts, and they’d like to get an extension done with Rafael Devers.
Boston’s payroll sits roughly $90 million below next season’s luxury-tax threshold ($233 million), and the Red Sox have said they’re willing to surpass the threshold as they did this year. Like most big-market franchises, they can afford three or more nine-figure deals in one offseason, but given chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has doled out just one such deal in his three years on the job (Trevor Story’s six-year, $140 million contract), it doesn’t seem likely more than one or two will get done this winter. Do they prioritize adding Judge over a starting pitcher or contracts for Bogaerts and Devers? My gut says no. My bet is they’ll go in a different direction to fill their outfield and power needs.
— Jen McCaffrey
Chicago Cubs
“Intelligent spending” has become a catchphrase for Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, who worries more about contract years than overall dollars when he analyzes a potential deal. It’s hard to see an opening for that type of creative, NBA-style deal with a higher average annual value since Judge’s historic season already smashed the baseline of New York’s extension offer. It’s also a stretch to think the Cubs’ internal projection systems will light up for a 6-foot-7, 282-pound slugger who has already turned 30.
As enormously talented as Judge is, the Cubs are expected to be heavily involved in the shortstop market and more aggressive in adding pitching talent. Judge is a huge name, but he doesn’t have any equity built up in Chicago, where 1908 is no longer a lure for free agents hoping to make history and end the championship drought on the North Side. If the Cubs simply cared about Wrigley Field attractions, they wouldn’t have unloaded almost every player from the 2016 World Series team and embarked on another full-scale rebuild.
— Patrick Mooney
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