The "swing" races to watch are AZ1, AZ6, CA13, CA22, and CA41.
Posted by
The Gossip King (aka David)
Nov 12 '22, 22:06
|
As things stand, Democrats would need all 5 (and everything else at status quo) to reach 218.
So, each loss there means one less seat. As such, the most extreme gap we're looking at is 222-213. If the Democrats win two of those, it's 220-215. Four and five are the most interesting outcome, as it's 218-217 either way. Republicans feasibly control the house if it's 4-1, while Democrats do if it's 5-0.
Right now, Dems look good in AZ1 (which shouldn't be competitive since the Republican incumbent is a crook). AZ6 is tough. The Republican has the lead by 1,400 votes. It looks like there are 70k votes that should skew 80% Republican but then 236k that are 60/40 Democrat. I can make the math work on either side of this. It's a true coin flip.
I like Democrats' chances in 13 and 22, but I think 41 is going red. Democrats appear to have slid with Hispanic voters in California this cycle, which matters most in 41. It was already a fringe red district.
So, I'm expecting either 218-217 or 219-216 Republican. Good luck with that, House Speaker.
|
Responses:
|
