ST Alpha - "She's an Arizona Senator. If she's run as an Ind, the Dems can either run against her and split the vote (R wins) or cede it to her to run as Ind. -- (edited)" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "thanks for reminding me to think about this. so she's independent now. is the makeup if her district such that she can win as an I? or would she " by judge amanda jones

She's an Arizona Senator. If she's run as an Ind, the Dems can either run against her and split the vote (R wins) or cede it to her to run as Ind. -- (edited)

Posted by ty97 Dec 9 '22, 09:09

In the latter case, AZ is very purple for Senate right now, so I don't know her odds vs an R but call it even or even-ish.

But if she runs as an Ind and a the Dems run a Dem, than Sinema and the Dem both lose.

Sinema knows this. She also knows she'd lose the Dem primary. That's why she switched.

This switch to an Ind is nothing about 'principles' and 100% about survival.

Responses:

she has like 10% approval in the AZ Dem party. and the GOP still has to nominate someone more palatable than Sinema -- nm - hollywood big shot Dec 9, 09:18 8
- also doing it in a presidential turnout year, depending on the GOP nom, probably not ideal for ticket splitting shenanigans -- nm - hollywood big shot Dec 9, 09:21 7
  - Right, that's her gamble, that the Dems will get behind her as an Ind. -- nm - ty97 Dec 9, 09:23 6
    - as this tweeter notes she wants to be a Murkowski but she doesn't live in Alaska -- (link) - hollywood big shot Dec 9, 09:28 5
      - Our best hope is she doesn't run for for re-election. If she does, there are two main choices for the Dems: - ty97 Dec 9, 09:29 4
        
        the AZ GOP still has to not nominate a Blake Masters or Kari Lake opponent - hollywood big shot Dec 9, 09:37 3
        
        As bad as they were, they came with 4-5 points or closer of winning. - Will Hunting Dec 9, 09:52 1
        
        great, nominate Kari Lake and see how that works out for you -- nm - hollywood big shot Dec 9, 09:56
        
        (and the prospect of thinking Sinema splits votes with Dems probably emboldens them to go harder right, esp if Trump is on the ballot) -- nm - hollywood big shot Dec 9, 09:40

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She's an Arizona Senator. If she's run as an Ind, the Dems can either run against her and split the vote (R wins) or cede it to her to run as Ind. -- (edited)

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