NHL awards watch: Connor McDavid, Adam Fox and Matty Beniers lead the way at the halfway point
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Throughout the season I’ll be breaking down the numbers behind the race for each major player award: the Hart, the Norris, the Calder, the Selke, the Vezina, the Art Ross and the Rocket Richard. Numbers of course aren’t everything, but they add much-needed context to the awards race and can help shine a light on players deserving of more recognition while adding caveats to other players that may have some warts. This post will present the top 10 for each category based on a set criteria of guidelines. There is plenty of room for discussion and debate within (and outside) those guidelines.
We’re halfway through the season and that means a brand new awards watch. Some things have changed, but a lot has stayed the same. There’s still one more half of the season remaining for the races to get really wacky, but for now, it seems like players are settling into where they should be. Awards aren’t won in January, but this is where narratives really start to build for each trophy race.
This year’s crop remains a fascinating one as there are a lot of worthy candidates across the board. Sure, some awards have a runaway leader, but that doesn’t mean the race behind them can’t be intriguing.
After 41 games or so, here is how the awards race currently shakes out based on my interpretation of each player’s numbers so far.
Data as of January 9.
Hart Trophy
Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by Game Score Value Added, adjusted by position.
It is Connor McDavid’s world, we just live in it. Last time around McDavid was in seventh with a lot of caveats surrounding that ranking and why it was likely to change. Here we are one month later and McDavid is rightfully on top — as he should have always been.
Right now, McDavid is the only answer for the Hart Trophy. There is a bar for point production where it becomes so stupidly high that nothing else should matter. McDavid is on track to clear that bar with ease.
Is his five-on-five play still lagging his usual standards where he’s only barely outscoring opponents? Yes. Is he 50th in points-per-60 at five-on-five? Yes. Is he earning most of his cookies on the power play? Yes. Who cares. He’s on pace for 152 points, 36 points more than the next-best guy who doesn’t play with him. Nothing else matters.
With half a season left it’s likely that most of those nitpicking areas against McDavid’s value will be fixed by season’s end. He’ll likely cool off on the power play, but make up ground at even strength which should boost his point efficiency to his usual lofty standard. That will help the Oilers outscore teams a bit more at five-on-five with him on the ice. While it’s astonishing the margin is only 31-29 considering his production, that’s hardly his fault, especially considering most of the problem is how the team is finishing their chances with him on the ice. McDavid’s teammates, who get to play with the best playmaker on earth, have scored just 16 goals off 29 expected goals at five-on-five. That’s either horrifically unlucky or unacceptably bad — but neither speaks to McDavid’s performance.
McDavid is the best player in the world and should run away with the Hart Trophy this season. It’s nice to see GSVA catch up to that. With that being said, there’s a reason these models exist and that’s to put everything a player does into one context. It’s not perfect, but it creates apples-to-apples comparisons where it’s easier to judge someone who provides all their value from putting up points compared to someone who drives play well. A pure offensive force compared to a shutdown center.
There’s a reason GSVA doesn’t believe McDavid is running away with MVP honors quite yet and that’s because there are a number of players who do have better results at five-on-five. Of the eight forwards listed, McDavid has the lowest points-per-60 and lowest goals percentage at five-on-five.
Jack Hughes is right at the top of that list and right now should be considered the best contender to “runner-up to McDavid.” Hughes is eighth in scoring, but leads the league in penalty differential at plus-19 and is creating a massive impact at both ends of the ice. He is the primary reason for New Jersey’s success this season posting 64 percent of the expected goals (no other MVP contender is above 60 percent) and 63 percent of the actual goals. He is the only forward in the league that ranks top 10 in both offensive and defensive plus-minus.
Jason Robertson isn’t far behind on that front and his higher rate of production might make him a sexier choice. The same goes for David Pastrnak who is scoring a boatload of goals on the NHL’s best team while being responsible in his own end. Add the most complete defensemen in the league (Adam Fox), the most explosive offensive performance from a defender in ages (Erik Karlsson), two Florida-based superstars (Matthew Tkachuk, Nikita Kucherov) plus a Goliath-sized human highlight reel (Tage Thompson) and the Hart field is stacked with a lot of worthy candidates at the top.
What’s funny is that the most peculiar name on the list is last year’s winner, Auston Matthews. He’s had noticeably less pop in his game this year, is scoring much less — and yet still finds himself on a 5.2-win pace. If that’s an off year, that’s damn good.
What made his case so strong then was not just his goal-scoring, but how complete his game is. That remains intact this year with 58 percent of the expected goals and 67 percent of the actual goals this season. The latter number is second to only Robertson on this list. Toronto is partially where it is in the standings because of the strong, subtle play of Matthews this season.
However, it is still surprising Matthews ranks sixth by GSVA as he is very obviously lacking the oomph he had last year. To his credit, he has been incredibly consistent with almost no nights off, always making some impact with just three negative Game Scores all season (for context McDavid has seven). But he’s had noticeably fewer games where he’s completely taken over single-handedly like McDavid, Hughes and Thompson. Matthews may be having an underrated season, but it’s hard to realistically put him as high in the Hart Trophy race as the model suggests until he starts really dominating games again.
Norris Trophy
Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position.
Criteria: Defensemen that play top pairing minutes ranked by Game Score Value Added.
The Norris Trophy is often one of the most contentious awards races each season and this season is looking like it will be no different. With the Norris Trophy, it always depends on what a person values most with defensemen.
The shiniest name on the list is Erik Karlsson who is posting unprecedented numbers for a defenseman with 54 points in 41 games, a staggering 108-point pace that ranks seventh in the league. He’s not doing that on a high-flying offensive team either. He’s doing it on the Sharks where he essentially is the team’s entire offense. The Sharks’ goal difference per 60 with Karlsson on the ice relative to teammates is 1.0 better and that’s entirely due to his offensive ability. Of the top Norris contenders, no one is generating as many goals at Karlsson’s 3.91 per 60 and he leads the field with the highest relative goal differential per 60 (though he has the second-lowest relative expected goal differential). The issue is that all of his impact is on offense and Karlsson does give back a lot the other way. He’s the only defender here allowing over three goals against per 60 and his defense is the main thing holding back his GSVA. Karlsson still ranks third because he is a huge net positive on offense, but there’s more to a defender’s game than scoring.
If there’s a foil to Karlsson’s dynamic offense, it’s Hampus Lindholm’s shutdown defense. No defender this year provides a larger defensive impact than Lindholm and very few perform as well the other way too. Lindholm has been a massive success story for the high-flying Bruins and has been their best defenseman this season. Lindholm has posted a 61 percent expected goals rate at five-on-five which leads all defensemen and 68 percent of the actual goals which ranks fourth. His point totals obviously aren’t as shimmery as the rest of the field, but they’re strong enough to warrant some real Norris hype.
If offense is your style, it’s Karlsson. If it’s defense, consider Lindholm. For me, the Norris should go to a defenseman that is the most complete package and that’s still Adam Fox. He’s not quite at Karlsson’s offensive level, but he’s still playing at a point-per-game pace. He’s not quite at Lindholm’s five-on-five impact, but he’s earning 58 percent of the expected goals and 64 percent of the actual goals. Relative to teammates, his expected goal impact leads the Norris field here while his relative goal impact is second to Karlsson’s. Fox won the Norris Trophy two seasons ago and he’s playing even better hockey this season. He should be the frontrunner with the most balanced statistical profile and the most complete game.
That’s the current top three, but there are some other strong names on the list. Last year’s winner, Cale Makar, isn’t quite matching last year’s output, but he’s still having an excellent year at both ends of the ice and logging a ton of minutes. Rasmus Dahlin is continuing his breakout season with the Sabres and is a strong choice. The same goes for Josh Morrissey, who has unlocked his offensive game this season. Dougie Hamilton has regained his Carolina form too after a trying first year with New Jersey and he deserves some recognition too.
Selke Trophy
Given to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.
Criteria: Forwards who play over 16 minutes per game, receive 15 percent of their team’s short-handed minutes and face above-average forward competition, ranked by their ability to suppress expected and actual goals.
Perhaps the biggest shock in this edition of awards watch is seeing Patrice Bergeron audaciously unseated from his rightful perch atop the Selke Trophy leaderboard.
As always with the Selke, it comes down to what criteria is used and applying context properly. If we go strictly by each player’s defensive plus-minus, Bergeron comes in a shade behind Mikael Backlund at the moment — a small enough shade that we’re splitting hairs. Bergeron’s expected goals-against rate (1.79) and actual goals-against rate (1.13) is lower than Backlund’s (1.9 expected, 1.62 actual), but relative to teammates the edge belongs to Backlund. Calgary is 0.45 expected goals better and 0.8 actual goals better defensively with Backlund on the ice while Bergeron is at 0.3 and 0.49 respectively. It’s always important to combine every facet of the defensive equation and in doing so, Backlund comes out ahead. Barely.
But that’s not done in a vacuum either. Context matters and there’s a large chasm between how Bergeron is used and how Backlund is used. Bergeron is on a high-powered line, but he faces the absolute toughest assignments relative to teammates in the league. Backlund is much closer to average, seeing lesser comp than both Elias Lindholm and Nazem Kadri. It’s not enough to disqualify Backlund who should be in the running, but if we’re splitting hairs it’s clear Bergeron’s defensive results are more impressive. The tougher zone starts are a factor too. Combine that with the fact that most people vote for the Selke as a “two-way forward” award rather than its actual definition and the Selke once again becomes Bergeron’s to lose.
After those two there is a strong list of candidates with intriguing arguments.
Annual stalwarts Jordan Staal, Mark Stone, Joel Eriksson Ek and Phillip Danault remain in the conversation and they each have good reason for a nomination. Staal in particular hasn’t been nominated in over a decade and it would be nice to see him get some recognition for his yearly defensive excellence. He’s a vital cog in the Carolina defensive machine allowing just 1.82 expected goals against per 60 this year — a career-best.
As for some newcomers to the Selke conversation, Nico Hischier looked stronger during the last awards watch when the Devils were on top of the world, but the team as a whole has since crashed back down to earth. He’s still a Selke contender, but his stock there has fallen. Mitch Marner has received some fanfare this year for his all-around play and should get some well-deserved love for his all-around game. J.T. Compher is a bit of a surprise, stepping up big-time in the wake of Colorado’s injury troubles.
Calder Trophy
Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL.
Criteria: Rookie skaters ranked by Game Score Value Added, adjusted by position.
This award has had Matty Beniers’ name written on it all season and that hasn’t changed over the last month or so. He’s on pace for 65 points while employing an exemplary defensive game for any forward, let alone someone in his first season. Beniers has a 0.5-win lead on the next-best skater and is on pace to be worth 2.8 wins. That’s borderline elite.
Among all skaters, Beniers lands in the 90th percentile for GSVA. Stuart Skinner, who ranks seventh in the league in goals saved above expected, is in the 87th percentile among goalies. Comparing skaters and goalies is tricky, but percentiles help show how much value the two deliver relative to their positions. This is a much closer race than it was the last time around.
The narrative of Skinner stealing the starting job and saving Edmonton’s season from catastrophe will be hard to ignore here, though Beniers leading the Kraken to the postseason after their inaugural season disaster is just as tantalizing a story.
Pyotr Kochetkov is next in line behind those two (in the 78th percentile among goalies), stepping in admirably for the injured Frederik Andersen. He looks like the real deal for Carolina, but it’s important to remember that public models have a tendency to underrate the Hurricanes’ defensive ability. Kochetkov is 11th in goals saved above expected, but it’s difficult to believe he has the 13th toughest shooting environment.
After that trio, the field is mostly comparatively weak — especially up front. There are some intriguing defenders who can make a run given their potential.
Owen Power has the best shot to dethrone someone in the top three as a minute-munching defender for a team on the rise. His production doesn’t exactly leap off the page, but his offensive impact is great and he plays nearly 24 minutes per game. He’s playing at a top pair rate, noticeably more impactful than Jake Sanderson who has slowed down a bit over the last month. Pierre-Olivier Joseph is the other defenseman on the board and while he shows up higher than both Power and Sanderson, that should be taken with a grain of salt given his soft usage.
Vezina Trophy
Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position.
Criteria: Goaltenders that have played half of their team’s games or more ranked by goals saved above expected courtesy of Evolving Hockey.
The Vezina Trophy should be Ilya Sorokin’s to lose with the way he’s carried a relatively weak Islanders team into the playoff race this season, but it feels like it may be difficult for some to ignore Linus Ullmark’s sparkling traditional stats. A 22-1-1 record at the moment is quite the argument for old-school folks as is his .938 save percentage. Ullmark has been impressive, but there’s a world of difference between playing behind a super-team like Boston whose claim to fame is defense, and the Islanders who struggle in that regard. Ullmark has the second-highest expected save percentage in the league while Sorokin has the eighth-lowest.
Sorokin should be the front-runner so far, but it’s not as cut and dry as goals saved above expected makes it out to be either. Public expected goals numbers aren’t gospel and the argument for Sorokin is predicated on being in a significantly tougher environment. While that is likely true given each respective team’s defensive ability, we shouldn’t be 100 percent confident either. It’s close enough that Ullmark has a legitimate argument.
The race itself is much tighter than it was at the start of December when Sorokin was six goals saved above expected better than the next-best goalie and 10 better than fourth. Now, he has company with Connor Hellebuyck, Juuse Saros and Ullmark all right around 20 goals saved.
It’s a tough group to pick from with all four having very strong cases to date and strong cases to continue as some of the best goalies in the world. It’ll be interesting to see if Sorokin can pull away or if someone really challenges him for the goals saved above expected crown in the second half. With goalies being so volatile, it’s also worth watching out for two past Vezina Trophy winners in the top 10: Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin. They have the potential to make this race really interesting.
Art Ross Trophy
Given to the player who leads the NHL in scoring points at the end of the regular season.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season point total.
We don’t need to dedicate too many words here, right? It’s Connor McDavid in a landslide. If he plays the full season he’s winning the Art Ross easily with a projected 25-point lead over teammate Leon Draisaitl and a 36-point lead over the next non-Oiler. Ridiculous. He should hit 125 points by around game 69, which should still be enough to win.
Rocket Richard Trophy
Given to the NHL’s top goal scorer.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season goal total.
Connor McDavid looks like a man on a mission this year, determined to win his first Rocket Richard Trophy. His biggest competition was always going to be a superstar sniper from Arizona and right now it’s the guy from Arizona that’s projected to win: Tage Thompson.
McDavid has more goals at the moment, but Thompson has a higher goals-per-game rate and has seen his projected goal-scoring output rise significantly over the last year as his usage has risen. On a per-minute basis, he’s been more efficient than McDavid over the last two years and is now playing over 20 minutes per night. That’s enough to marginally lead McDavid in projected end-of-season goals. Wouldn’t it be something to see two players duel for 60? Watch out for David Pastrnak in that race too.
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