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In response to
"Can someone post his list? -- nm"
by
Will Hunting
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quick and dirty c/p
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Top 100 MLB prospects 2023: Keith Law’s rankings, with Corbin Carroll at No. 1
Keith Law
Jan 30, 2023
102
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Welcome to this year’s ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball. I’ve been compiling and writing such rankings for 16 years now, and those of you who’ve read them before will find the format here similar to those from the recent past. My farm reports covering at least 20 prospects in each team’s system, and notes on prospects who might appear in the majors this year, or who might be breakout prospects for the 2024 rankings, will appear the week of Feb. 6.
This year’s list is, to be blunt, not great — we had so many graduations in 2022, including seven of my top 10 and more than 30 of my top 100, that the best 50 or 100 or 150 prospects in the minors are now, in bulk, not up to the level of talent that it usually is. That might be pandemic-related, because so many players lost a year or more of development. It might also have to do with MLB’s decision to eliminate all short-season leagues between the complexes and Low A, a move that especially hurts teenaged players who aren’t quite ready for full-season ball after they’ve finished a summer in the Arizona or Florida Complex Leagues. A draft class in 2022 that was generally seen as mediocre, with very little college pitching, didn’t help matters either. That said, there are a lot of potential superstars at the top of the list, and as you move through it, you’ll see a lot of players with the upside to be stars (I’m thinking 5+ WAR, roughly), but who might have a lower probability of reaching those ceilings.
I tend to favor upside in prospects more than certainty, but there is value in both. A player who is all ceiling and no floor isn’t as valuable, in the trade market now or in considering his expected value in the long term, as one who has a somewhat lower ceiling but a much higher floor. I want players who might be stars, and after that I want players who might be above-average big leaguers — but I also try to keep in mind that many of these prospects won’t reach their ceilings, and to consider what other scenarios exist for their futures.
I refer to grades throughout the prospect rankings on the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is major-league average, 80 is the highest possible score, and 20 is the lowest. I’ll also use similar language, referring to tools that are above (a grade of 55) or below average (45 or less), or referring to plus (60) or plus-plus (70) or maybe you should try another line of work (35). I try to discuss players’ tools, their frames, their level of athleticism and other physical attributes, as well as their skills, their aptitude, and other mental or intellectual attributes as well. This is comparable to how major-league teams evaluate players, although they will always have the advantage of access to more and better data than those of us on the outside can get. The least I can do is try to reflect how the industry thinks about players, and give you the most accurate possible picture of the prospects in these rankings through both the lens of my own evaluations and those of the people within the industry whom I most trust.
To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2023, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days on an active major-league roster heading into this season. Days on the roster in September now count against the rookie threshold, whereas days on the active roster in any September prior to 2020 do not count, a change MLB made to the rookie eligibility rules in 2020. Thus new Arizona catcher Gabriel Moreno, who had 61 days on the Blue Jays’ active roster last year, no longer qualifies. I also exclude players who have come here as free agents from Japan’s NPB or Korea’s KBO, because while they are rookies (and I would vote for them if I have a Rookie of the Year ballot), they are not prospects by my definition.
Note: All ages are seasonal ages, which refers to a player’s age at the midpoint of the year, so July 1, 2023.
1. Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age: 23 (as of 7/1/2023) | 5-10 | 165 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 16 in 2019
Last year’s ranking: 16
Carroll came into 2022 with just 18 career games outside of the complex league, and finished the year with 1.2 rWAR in 32 games in the big leagues, capping off a year where he hit 28 homers, stole 33 bases, drew 75 walks, and, most importantly of all, stayed healthy. Carroll was the 16th pick in the 2019 draft out of a private high school in Seattle and had a tremendous pro debut that summer, but missed 2020 due to the pandemic, and then dislocated his shoulder a week into his 2021 campaign, ending his season. He’s an 80 runner by Sprint Speed, and a true center fielder who gets great reads and has the closing speed to go get the ball in the gaps. Despite his stature, he makes solid contact and has shown plus power everywhere he’s played, including his stint in the majors, along with very advanced plate discipline for someone with his limited playing experience. He did struggle with high-end velocity in his month in the majors, so he has at least one clear area for improvement heading into his first full major-league season, but didn’t have the same trouble with velocity in the minors. For a player to miss this much time and perform at the level Carroll did, jumping right to Double A and hitting .303/.422/.495 between that level and Triple A (in two hitter-friendly ballparks), speaks to both his pure athleticism and his incredible feel for the game. The Diamondbacks are building a tremendous core of young players, and Carroll will be one of their centerpieces for a long time.
2. Gunnar Henderson, SS/3B, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 22 | 6-2 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 42 in 2019
Last year’s ranking: 73
Henderson has made incredible strides as a player even just in the past two years, from swing adjustments to physical development to going from a raw athlete on defense to a potentially elite glove at third base who can stay at shortstop too. The Orioles’ second-round pick in 2019, signed to a first-round bonus, Henderson performed better in High A than he did in Low A in 2021, moved up to Double A and hit better there than he had in High A, only slowing down when he reached Triple A last year at 21, hitting a measly .288/.390/.504 in half a season there. He’s simplified his swing since he was drafted, ditching the toe-tap and using his lower half more to generate power, resulting in a more fluid swing and better adjustments to different pitch types. He’s at least an average defender at short, more than good enough to stay at the position, but is at least a 70 defender at third, and could have a Scott Rolen-like upside if he ends up at the hot corner. Henderson has been much better against right-handed pitching, with a .208/.316/.354 line against lefties at all levels last year, although that’s not unusual for a young left-handed-hitting prospect, and there’s no reason to think he won’t improve with experience. Rolen’s a Hall of Famer, so I don’t throw that comparison around lightly, but Henderson looks like a 25+ homer, high OBP guy who spends fifteen years on the left side of an infield.
3. Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 19 | 6-1 | 165 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021
Last year’s ranking: Unranked
Chourio won’t even turn 19 until March, but he was the second-best hitter in the Low-A Carolina League thanks to a .600 slugging percentage there that ranked second only to a 23-year-old college product. The Brewers bumped him up to High A, where he continued to hit and show power, so much so that they gave him a brief cup of coffee in Double A to end the year, which probably means he’ll start there in 2023 as a true 19-year-old. He’s a plus-plus runner who still hasn’t grown into his lanky 6-foot-1 frame yet, which is scary considering the impact he’s already showing with the bat. A former shortstop, he’s taken off on both sides of the ball since the Brewers moved him to center field coming out of the pandemic, adjusting very quickly to the outfield to the point where he projects as a plus defender in center. He’s had on-and-off elbow issues going back to when he signed, and missed a week and a half with a sore elbow this August, although he returned to hit three homers in his first three games and four in his first five. Chourio is very aggressive at the plate, walking only 7.3 percent of the time last year and striking out 26.8 percent of the time, and he really struggled in that brief time in Double A as pitchers could exploit that lack of discipline — but he was also the youngest player to get a single at-bat in Double A in 2022. He’s the same age as many high school seniors who’ll be drafted this June, and he already has a 20-homer pro season under his belt. With his tools and ability to provide value on defense up the middle, he has as much upside as any player on this list.
4. Elly de la Cruz, SS, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 21 | 6-5 | 200 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018
Last year’s ranking: 69
With the possible exception of Chourio, de la Cruz is probably the highest-upside prospect on the top 100 — it’s 80 power, 80 speed, and at least a 70 arm, with crazy bat speed and quick-twitch actions all over the place. De la Cruz hit 28 homers between High A and Double A last year, with a .304/.359/.586 composite line, along with 47 steals (89 percent), but a 30.7 percent strikeout rate that speaks to his overaggressiveness. He has the bat speed and coverage to make good contact with pitches out of the strike zone, but also has issues with pitches in the zone, especially fastballs in the upper half. That’s not unusual for a very young hitter who’s learned from experience that he can mash against almost anything, but it’s also not the ideal formula for major-league success, so he will have to tighten up his pitch selection going forward. He’s got the actions, speed, and arm for shortstop, although at 6-5 he’s at the upper end of the size spectrum for the position, and there’s a good chance he’ll outgrow it and end up at third or in center. Nobody listed at 6-5 or taller has played shortstop regularly in the majors, and only seven guys at least that tall have played it at all, notably Troy Glaus. That’s not a guarantee, but it’s the base rate here, and shows the bar de la Cruz has to clear to stay at the position. However, this kind of bat speed, power, and foot speed also means he could be a star at pretty much any position where he plays, as it’s easy 30-35 home run power and the potential for high BABIPs even if he strikes out a quarter of the time. And if at some point he makes a big move in his pitch selection and recognition, he might end up the best player in baseball.
5. Jordan Walker, OF/3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 21 | 6-5 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 21 in 2020
Last year’s ranking: 30
Walker has shown an advanced approach at the plate from the moment he made his debut to start 2021, moving to Double A last year in his age-20 season and finishing third in the Texas League in slugging and seventh in OBP despite being the league’s youngest everyday player on Opening Day and one of only two 20-year-olds to qualify in that league (along with teammate Masyn Winn). Walker is a big man, 6-5, listed at 220 pounds but stronger than that already, and already makes above-average quality contact, with more power projected as he continues filling out and catches up to the age of his leagues. His swing is very easy and simple, so while he doesn’t have elite bat speed, he gets the bat to the zone quickly enough to hit better velocity. He’s primarily a fastball hitter still, struggling more with soft stuff down and away, relatively speaking, although his zone awareness is ahead of most 20-year-old hitters’, and it’s hard to beat him anywhere on the inner half. He’s a below-average runner who was already challenged at third base, and since the Cardinals have Brooks Robinson over there, they’ve moved Walker to right field. After Aug. 1, he played just two games at third base, and all his AFL time came in right. He’s a good enough athlete that he should be at least a 55 defender out there, if not more. He might be a 30-homer guy, although it’s more likely he’s a 20-25 homer guy who posts high averages and OBPs, maybe the sort of player who gets underrated because he’s not exceptionally fast or toolsy but offers consistently stellar production over a long period.
6. Diego Cartaya, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 21 | 6-3 | 219 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018
Last year’s ranking: 13
Cartaya played just a month in 2021 before an injury ended his season, so while that month was impressive (he hit .298/.409/.614 in Low A at age 19, in just 31 games), there was a “prove-it” sentiment among some scouts and other clubs. Well, Cartaya went back to Low A, hit .260/.405/.550, then moved up to High A and hit .251/.379/.476 there, finishing the year with 22 homers and 63 walks in 95 games, all while continuing to improve behind the plate. Cartaya hammers fastballs and offspeed, posting high exit velocities and often out-muscling pitchers with his pure strength, while already showing a good feel for the strike zone even before he turned 21 in September. He’s already better on defense than he was a year ago, but he can catch the ball too close to his body, limiting him probably to fringe-average receiving at his peak, and has had some trouble throwing out runners despite plus arm strength. None of that will matter if he continues to hit for power and get on base like he has so far, and there’s every reason in tools and performance to date to say that he will.
7. Francisco Álvarez, C, New York Mets
Age: 21 | 5-10 | 233 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018
Last year’s ranking: 8
Álvarez is the highest-ranked player from last year’s list who didn’t lose his eligibility through playing too much in the majors in 2022, although he did make his debut at the very end of the season and hit his first homer. He had a tremendous start to his year in Double A, hitting .277/.368/.553 with 18 homers in just 67 games for Binghamton, but ran into some bad luck in Triple A — he continued to make consistent, hard contact, but his BABIP dropped 30 points and his strikeout rate rose just a bit to 26 percent, resulting in a .234/.382/.443 line for Syracuse. He has a tremendous swing for generating that hard contact, with great balance throughout, excellent hand acceleration, and good use of his lower half to drive the ball. Scouts were more bearish on his defense when he moved to Triple A and had to catch better stuff, although the consensus is still that he can stay there, even just as a bat-first catcher who could stand to clean up some of his blocking and receiving. I think he can handle it, even if he’s only a soft 45 on defense, because the bat will make up for any of those deficiencies. Despite the drop in his average in Triple A, his swing and history of hard contact point to stronger batting averages as well as OBPs with 25-30 homer power at his peak.
8. Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees
Age: 22 | 5-11 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 30 in 2019
Last year’s ranking: 10
Volpe got off to a terrible start in 2022, hitting .203/.312/.373 through the end of May — and that’s with a four-hit game on May 28. He’d been working through some swing changes in those two months, but in late May/early June he decided to go back to his old swing, and it showed, as the 2019 first-rounder hit .279/.369/.528 the rest of the way for Double-A Somerset, earning a September promotion to Triple A to finish the year. Volpe has a beautiful right-handed swing — I don’t know why anyone would try to mess with it — that produces a lot of quality contact and keeps the ball in the air for extra-base power, although I think he’ll settle in as more of a high-doubles guy who might hit 20 homers than a 30-homer guy. He’s a 55-60 runner but it plays up on the bases because he has great instincts both for reading pitchers and reading situations. While at shortstop, he’s got great hands and gets himself into the right position to make plays more than most shortstops I see. I caught a lot of Volpe last year, and he was playing a different game than his teammates. We talk about how the game speeds up for some players as they move up the ladder; Volpe plays like the game is too slow and he’s waiting for it to catch up. I don’t know for a fact that the Yankees have sat out the free-agent shortstop market because they think Volpe’s a star, but I think Volpe’s a star, so I can hardly blame them.
9. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age: 20 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 6 in 2021
Last year’s ranking: 31
Lawlar’s 2021 pro debut ended after two games when he injured his shoulder and had season-ending surgery, making his 2022 season even more remarkable. As a 19-year-old with all of six professional plate appearances before this year, he hit .351/.447/.603 in Low A, then hit .288/.385/.478 in High A before finally struggling in 20 games in Double A, where he was one of only three teenagers in the Texas League all season. Lawlar has a very advanced approach for his age and experience level, and even in Double A he didn’t get overly aggressive or wild, struggling a little with pitchers who changed speeds more effectively against him. He gets into a good position to start his swing and has excellent hand acceleration, with good loft for line-drive power. He’s a true shortstop with the hands and arm to stay there, needing work on his footwork and making routine plays consistently, while his instincts and game clock are above-average and let him succeed even when he isn’t in the right position to start a play. It’s easy to see why there was talk early in 2021 that he might be the first pick, as he projects to hit for a high average and get on base, with maybe 50-55 power, while playing above-average to plus defense at shortstop. Once he gets more reps in Double A and sees more changeups, he should adjust quickly, given how fast he adjusted last year just to better velocity and seeing more sliders. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him debut in 2023.
10. Eury Pérez, RHP, Miami Marlins
Age: 20 | 6-8 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2019
Last year’s ranking: 64
Pérez won’t even turn 20 until April, but the Marlins’ top prospect — and the top pitching prospect in all of baseball — is certainly all grown up, as he’s 6-8, pushing 6-9, and has already conquered Double A. Pérez already sits in the upper 90s, reaching 99 mph in the Futures Game last summer, coming from a low slot that mitigates some of the benefit he might get from his height but that makes it nearly impossible for right-handed batters to see the ball out of his hand. He pairs it with a plus changeup that has hard tumbling action and looks just like the fastball out of his hand, leaving him with no platoon split at all in 2022, while he also has a mid-80s slider that has a short, mostly vertical break, enough to keep right-handers from sitting on the heater. He’s a strike-thrower who walked two or fewer batters in 14 of his first 15 starts last year, although his command is probably a full grade below his control right now. Pitchers this tall do not have a great track record of health, and Pérez himself has missed time in the last two years, getting shut down for about five weeks in August and September last year due to “arm fatigue,” so there is real risk here around his durability. If he just stays healthy, though, he has No. 1 starter upside. There is no one in the minors with this kind of stuff, deception, and ability to throw strikes.
Boston’s Marcelo Mayer practicing at Fenway Park in 2021. (John Tlumacki / The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
11. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Red Sox
Age: 20 | 6-3 | 188 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 4 in 2021
Last year’s ranking: 18
Mayer had a tough full-season debut in 2022, as he missed a month with a sprained wrist in the first half and struggled to drive the ball for four or five weeks after he returned, and then fought through some back tightness in July that may also have hurt his power. (I saw him twice, once when he first tried to come back from the wrist sprain and wasn’t ready, and the other in the game when his back tightened up on him. Perhaps I should never try to see him again.) The good news is despite the injury troubles, he still showed an extremely advanced approach at the plate, even when he wasn’t at full strength, and finished strongly in Low A and after an early August promotion to High A, hitting .287/.435/.492 from July 1 through the end of the season. Mayer has a smooth left-handed swing that should get him to plus power when he fills out, with loft in his finish and evident hand strength already. I haven’t seen great bat speed from him, bearing in mind I am putting a rare Sicilian curse on him any time I’m in the ballpark, and he might be a high-OBP, 25+ homer guy who doesn’t hit for high averages if that’s the case. He’s a no-doubt shortstop with great actions and quick hands — at least, when I haven’t graced him with my presence and caused his vestigial organs to turn necrotic mid-play — and a plus arm. I know I haven’t seen his best, and I take responsibility for my actions. I still think he’s going to be a star.
12. Kyle Harrison, LHP, San Francisco
Age: 21 | 6-2 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 85 in 2020
Last year’s ranking: 82
Harrison ranked second in minor-league baseball in strikeouts in 2022, a year after he finished ninth while throwing just 98 innings on the season, and he does it with huge stuff and deception and pretty good feel. He’s 92-94 mph, touching 97, with a plus slider at 80-82, showing good shape to the pitch, with the depth of a curveball but the sharpness of a power slider. He has a changeup that flashes average with good bottom, but uses his slider in changeup counts even to right-handers. Harrison has a very deceptive delivery, with a low three-quarter slot and an arm action that keeps the ball behind his body for a long time, although he struggles with timing and his arm can be late relative to his front leg, a potential red flag for future injuries. If he stays healthy, which he has so far in pro ball, this is No. 1 starter stuff, and while it’s not Chris Sale’s body or arm swing, there are definitely enough similarities to think that’s Harrison’s ceiling.
13. Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 20| 6-7 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 13 in 2021
Last year’s ranking: Unranked
The Phillies took a high school pitcher with their first-round pick in 2021, the second time in a row they’d done so, and so far both of those prospects look very promising. Painter was the second of those two picks and he’s quickly become their best prospect, dominating at three levels as a 19-year-old last year with two plus pitches and a good chance he’ll end up with a third. He’s huge, 6-7, listed at 215 but probably 10-15 pounds stronger than that already, and could just bully hitters with his fastball in Low A, where he started 2022. He’s already working at 94-97 mph over full starts and can reach 99, coming from a high three-quarter slot that makes his two-plane curveball at 76-81 even more devastating. He also throws both pitches for strikes, even improving his control as he moved up the ladder — he walked just two of 109 hitters he faced in Double A, his lowest walk rate at any of the three levels where he pitched. He does have a changeup that projects to a 55 but he barely uses it, while he has a slider that is behind the curveball in effectiveness and isn’t as hard as it should be given his fastball velocity. Painter won’t even turn 20 until April, so he has a lot of time to continue developing, but also a lot of time to get hurt, unfortunately. His delivery is good and he repeats it well, but we’ve seen way too many guys like him get hurt on their way to the majors to ignore the possibility here. If your crystal ball says he’ll stay healthy, he’s a top-10 prospect in baseball, and might have a case to be in the top 6.
14. Druw Jones, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age: 19 | 6-4 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 2 in 2022
Last year’s ranking: Ineligible
Jones was the No. 1 prospect in the 2022 draft class and went second to the Diamondbacks, one pick behind Jackson Holliday, who went No. 1 to the Orioles. Jones, like his father Andruw, is a superb defensive center fielder with plus power; unfortunately, like the two Arizona prospects ahead of him on this list, he hurt his shoulder on a swing and needed season-ending surgery, in this case before he even got his first professional at-bat. Jones is already taller than his father at 6-4 and has begun to fill out his frame, so while there are similarities, he’s going to be a different player. He’s a plus defender now and could end up a 70 or 80 with experience, while at the plate, he has shown plus-plus raw and game power, although he’s more power than hit right now, and will have to show a different approach in pro ball than he did in high school, where he could more easily wait for a pitch he could destroy. He’s a plus runner now but may slide toward average as he matures physically. He has an enormous ceiling as an elite defensive center fielder who hits 30 homers a year and maybe steals 20 bags with a solid OBP, with a reasonable floor as a regular even if he doesn’t hit for much average. He could easily be the No. 1 prospect in baseball at this time next year.
15. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 23| 6-5 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 11 in 2018
Last year’s ranking: 14
Rodriguez really should have seen the majors last year, but he strained his right latissimus dorsi (“lat”) muscle — an injury that is notorious for how long it takes to heal — in June, after which the Orioles shut him down for three months. He did return to pitch in September but Baltimore chose not to call him up for his debut, which I assume will come this April instead. When he did pitch, he was his usual self, sitting 95-96 mph, touching 99, with a plus changeup, two distinct breaking balls that are both average or slightly above, and even a cutter he threw a few times a game. The changeup is so good that it’s even his best pitch against right-handed batters, making up for the slider, which is his worst offering, with just average spin and break and not much velocity separation from the curveball. He could improve the slider given his incredible arm strength, but he also may not need the fourth pitch. I’ve heard more from scouts who view Rodriguez not as a No. 1 starter, but as a good No. 2 for a long time, especially since he has no history of arm trouble. It’s also possible that the fastball/change combo is so good that he ends up an ace even without a plus breaking pitch to go with them.
16. James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals
Age: 20 | 6-7 | 240 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 62 in 2021
Last year’s ranking: Unranked
Wood has done nothing but hit in pro ball since the Padres took him in the second round in 2021 and paid him a high first-round bonus to draw him away from Mississippi State. He’s since gone to the Nationals in the Juan Soto trade, playing 21 games for Low-A Fredericksburg before an injury ended his season, but his total pro line between the Arizona Complex League and two Low-A teams sits at .326/.430/.536 with a 14 percent walk rate and 24 percent strikeout rate. Wood is an exceptional athlete, a plus-plus runner even at 240-plus pounds who glides to catch balls in center field, and he can show 70 raw power, although that hasn’t manifested as much yet in games. He’s also shown a much better approach in pro ball than he did as an amateur, which of course is part of why he went in the second round despite several 70s on his scouting report. He does have some swing and miss in his game and his swing can get long, which is hardly surprising for a 6-7 hitter — I’ve written in a few places about the high risk of position players that tall. I do think he’s going to struggle more with contact as he moves up the ladder, but he has the power, speed, and defense to succeed even with a strikeout rate over 25 percent, and with the patience he’s already shown he may find a way to keep his contact rate up and become a 30/30 guy with a .350 OBP.
17. Cam Collier, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 18 | 6-2 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 18 in 2022
Last year’s ranking: Ineligible
Collier was the No. 2 player on my draft board this year, as the 17-year-old graduated from high school two years early and played the spring at two-year Chipola College, outhitting most of his older teammates while facing pitchers two to four years older than he was. The Reds got him at the 18th pick, paying him an over-slot $5 million bonus, and naturally I think they got a steal. The son of former Pirates outfielder Lou Collier, Cam projects to hit for average and for power thanks to a beautiful left-handed swing and exceptional bat speed. He’s short to the ball, with loose hands and plenty of wrist and hand strength to drive the ball to all fields. He has plus raw power now but doesn’t always get to it in games because he can drift forward over his front side, which fortunately isn’t that difficult to fix. He’s a former shortstop with a plus arm and should be no worse than an average defender at third, although some scouts voiced concerns in the spring that he’d end up too big for the position. I don’t think that’s likely, and he’s athletic enough to stay on the dirt. The bat is the carrying tool; with some modest adjustments, he should hit for high averages and power, and the fact that he’ll play all of next year at 18 also gives him more time to develop than anyone else on this list.
18. Termarr Johnson, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 19 | 5-7 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 4 in 2022
Last year’s ranking: Ineligible
Johnson was the best pure hitter in the high school ranks in the 2022 draft class, although he had some competition from players like Holliday. Johnson, who went fourth to the Pirates, played against awful competition for his Atlanta high school, often dealing with pitchers who’d pitch around him, but hit when he got the chance while also working like an extra coach, encouraging teammates, giving them tips at the plate while he was on base, and more. It’s one thing to talk about a player having great makeup, but you could see Johnson’s great makeup in tangible ways. He has a small hitch in his swing, but has exceptional hand-eye coordination and great bat speed to overcome it, and in a small sample in pro ball he showed he could hit good velocity and deal with better pitch shapes than he’d ever seen in his life. He has great hands to stay on the dirt, but he’s not a shortstop, and his footwork there makes me think he’ll end up at second base. He’s still growing, and might end up a little bit taller — he’s already a baller — and a lot stronger, with 20 homers within reach given his hit tool. With the way he carries himself on the field, I’m happy to bet on him reaching his ceiling.
19. Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 19 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 1 in 2022
Last year’s ranking: Ineligible
Holliday is the son of longtime outfielder Matt Holliday, and entered the spring of 2022 as someone who might go in the back of the first round. He worked hard that offseason on gaining strength and adjusting his swing to drive the ball more, and after a big showing on his school’s trip to Arizona over spring break — it never hurts to travel where half the GMs in baseball are hanging out — he vaulted up into the top echelon of prospects, eventually going first to the Orioles. Holliday has a pretty left-handed swing that produces hard line-drive contact, and he’s shown advanced feel for the strike zone at a young age. It’s a tiny sample, but he walked more than he struck out in his pro debut — 10 walks to two whiffs in the complex league, then 15 walks and 10 strikeouts in Low A, even though he was still 18 and just three months out of high school. He has more doubles/gap power now, but as he fills out he’s going to put more balls over the fence, probably becoming a 20-25 homer guy at his peak. He’s a plus runner who shows plenty of range at shortstop with enough arm for the left side of the infield, but if he outgrows short or ends up lacking the footwork for it, he could move to center field. I caught Holliday at the end of 2022 when the Orioles promoted him to Low-A Delmarva, and the worst thing I can say about him is that he tried to do too much — I’m sure he’s so used to being the best player on the field that he tried to make plays when he should have deferred to other fielders. That’s barely a flaw, just a testament to how good he is at such a young age. I can see why the O’s wanted him with the first pick, and I won’t be surprised at all if we see him in High-A Aberdeen by the middle of this year.
20. Jackson Merrill, SS, San Diego Padres
Age: 20 | 6-3 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 27 in 2021
Last year’s ranking: Unranked
Merrill was the Padres’ first-rounder in 2021 out of a Maryland high school, then spent the following offseason working on strength and conditioning, returning a completely different hitter. He’s got an advanced approach at the plate, including a real-life two-strike approach — I thought those were extinct! He also stays back on the ball well, producing gap power now that should end up as double-digit home run power when he fills out. He’s a plus runner with above-average range at shortstop, moving better to his right, and has a 55 arm, so while there was talk of him moving off the position when he was an amateur, I think he stays there long-term. Merrill fractured his wrist on a freak play in April, missing almost three months with the injury, but actually hit better after his return, and then held his own despite being one of the youngest players in the Arizona Fall League. Merrill’s ultimate ceiling probably comes down to how good the hit tool is. Right now it looks like he’ll have a future 60, if not better, hit tool, which would give him a chance to be an impact bat even with 8-12 homers a year. If not, though, I see a high floor here, where he’s got a very good chance to at least be a solid regular at short who plays 55 defense and gets on base at an above-average clip.
The Giants’ Marco Luciano played for the Scottsdale Scorpions in the 2021 AFL. (Chris Bernacchi / Diamond Images via Getty Images)
21. Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants
Age: 21 | 6-2 | 178 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018
Last year’s ranking: 15
Luciano’s 2022 season in High A was a disappointment, as a lower back strain cost him about half of the year, and when he came back in mid-August he wasn’t the same hitter. He was off to a good start before the injury, hitting .288/.360/.507 before he hit the injured list, so there’s reason to remain optimistic about his long-term upside, where he projects to a plus hit tool with plus power if it all comes together. He even showed a solid approach and continued to keep his contact rate up, even after the injury. Luciano is a physical kid, listed at 6-2 and a laughable 178 pounds, even though he’s a lot bigger and stronger than that now, and he hits the ball extremely hard when he squares it up, giving him that elite offensive upside where he could hit .300 and still get to 30 homers. He’s still playing shortstop but that’s always been unlikely, and I think it’s becoming even less so as he moves up the ladder; he should move to third base or first, but there’s a decent chance he’s a corner outfielder. The bat will still play there, or anywhere, although the positional question creates a wide range in his expected outcomes. At third, he might be a top 5-10 player in baseball. In the outfield, he might just be a star.
22. Brayan Rocchio, SS, Cleveland Guardians
Age: 22 | 5-10 | 170 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2017
Last year’s ranking: 22
Rocchio got off to a slow start in Double A last year, although he was one of the youngest players in the Eastern League at age 21, but improved as the season went on, hitting .316/.383/.539 in his last 50 games (of 99) before he was promoted to Triple A for the last five weeks of the season. He’s a smaller guy but makes hard contact, hitting 15 homers in 2021 and 18 last year, although he puts the ball on the ground a little too often for this type of hitter. He’s always had a compact, direct swing, and over the past few years he’s learned to stay back on the ball, with great balance through contact. He hits well from both sides but his swing is slightly better right-handed. He’s an above-average defender at shortstop with good hands and 55 speed, although once again, he was bad at the whole basestealing thing, going 14-for-23 (61 percent) to bring his career success rate down to 64 percent. I guess it’s a good thing he can field, hit, and hit for power. He could stand to walk a little more, although some of his impatience may stem from him always being young for his levels, and he needs to continue to put the ball in the air. I still see All-Star upside here, a shortstop who saves a few runs a year with his glove and adds a ton more with .280-.300 averages, adequate walk rates, and 15-20 homers a year.
23. Miguel Vargas, 3B/2B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2017
Last year’s ranking: 62
Vargas was arguably the best hitter in the PCL last year, and certainly the best one under the age of 26, hitting .304/.404/.511 with just a 14.6 percent strikeout rate for Oklahoma City while playing four different positions, putting him in line to be the Dodgers’ second baseman this year if Gavin Lux slides over to short. Vargas has always been able to hit, but his body has improved substantially since he first broke out in 2019, when scouts questioned whether he’d get too heavy or slow-footed for third base; now he’s a plus runner underway and there’s no doubt he could stay at third or handle second. We didn’t see his best bolts in the majors but he’s topped 110 mph off the bat in the minors and hits a ton of line drives, with a swing that might make him more of a 40 doubles/20 homers guy than a 30 homer guy, although either way he’s likely to post OBPs in the upper .300s. I think he’ll be the former, a high-OBP hitter who smashes a ton of doubles, maybe getting to 50 or so in his peak years, with solid-average defense at second or third, but maybe has years where he hits “only” 15-18 homers and is quietly excellent instead.
24. Curtis Mead, 3B/2B, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 22 | 6-2 | 171 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018
Last year’s ranking: 94
Mead was off to a great start in 2022 when his elbow started to bark, limiting him to just four games after July 23, although he did not have surgery on the joint. The Australian infielder, acquired from the Phillies for Cristopher Sánchez, hit .305/.394/.548 as a 21-year-old in his first go-round in Double A, then hit .278/.377/.486 in 20 games in Triple A before the injury shut him down. His best position is in the batter’s box, where he’s a high-contact doubles machine who hammers fastballs but can do damage against offspeed too. He’s extremely strong, driving the ball to all fields, even with a swing that always keeps his hands well out from his body. It’s a simple swing with big hand acceleration and a short but firm stride that gets him some additional power from his legs. He’s playable at third base and has dabbled at second, although he’ll likely just be a 45 defender at any skill position. His bat is his ticket, though; he should hit for average, and might be a 35-40 doubles guy in his first few years, while he could find another half-grade of power and convert some of those to homers in his peak.
25. Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox
Age: 21 | 6-4 | 205 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 22 in 2021
Last year’s ranking: Unranked
Montgomery was a risky pick in the first round in 2021 — he was 19 at the draft and came from a high school in rural Indiana where he didn’t face much good pitching. He’s panned out so far, reaching Double A last year after very strong performances as a 20-year-old in Low A and High A where he showed advanced plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. Before fading in August as he got tired, he was hitting .309/.420/.462 between the two levels, and then struggled after the White Sox promoted him, along all of their key prospects, to Double A to finish the year. He’s 6-4 with long limbs, and his swing can get long when he’s going for pitches on the outer edge or beyond, but he’s disciplined enough that he hasn’t chased much at the lower levels. The consensus among scouts is that he’ll move off shortstop, and he may very well outgrow it, but he gets very good reads and comes in well on balls, with plenty of arm for the left side of the infield. With his strong hit/OBP skills, Montgomery’s ceiling comes down to power; right now it’s below-average, but as he fills out he should get at least to average, which would make him a solid regular at third or an above-average regular at short.
26. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs
Age: 21 | 6-0 | 184 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 19 in 2020
Last year’s ranking: Unranked
Crow-Armstrong underwent shoulder surgery after just six pro games in 2021, his debut season after the Mets took him in the first round in the pandemic-shortened 2020 draft, and then found himself heading to Chicago as the return for Javier Báez at the 2021 deadline. Coming out of high school, he was a premium defensive center fielder with good feel to hit but not much potential for power, but he’s adjusted his swing and transformed his body so that he’s a double-digit homer guy who will put enough balls in the gaps to make him a potential star. He’s still a plus-plus defender in center and shows exceptional bat-to-ball skills, with just an 18 percent strikeout rate in Low A to start last year, and projects as a throwback sort of hitter who doesn’t walk or strike out a ton. He’s a plus runner who has exploited bad minor-league defenses to gain extra bases, helping him hit 10 triples in 101 games, tied for fourth in the minors. Crow-Armstrong will need to tighten up his approach to stay a 10-15 homer guy going forward, as his aggressiveness won’t let him get to pitches he can drive as he moves up the ladder, but he has that sort of power in him. Combined with his ability to hit for average and premium defense at a position up the middle, he has a very high floor that should let him be a regular for a long time, with the chance to make some All-Star teams if he gets to his power upside.
27. George Valera, OF, Cleveland Guardians
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: International signing in 2017
Last year’s ranking: 29
Valera and Rocchio have been on nearly parallel tracks the last two years, moving up from High A to Double A and then Double A to Triple A within two weeks of each other. Rocchio is the safer bet with the higher floor, but Valera offers more upside, especially with the bat, where he could be a high-OBP, 30-homer guy if he can keep his contact rate intact. Valera works the count extremely well, rarely chasing fastballs out of the zone, and is comfortable hitting with two strikes, only expanding slightly in those counts. He has very easy power to pull and the other way, with 30 homers a realistic projection for him, especially as he continues to learn which pitches to take and which to attack. After barely facing southpaws in 2021, he showed only a small platoon split in 2022, hitting better against right-handers but making almost as much contact against lefties. He’s a “flashy” player, but I say that as a compliment, as I think the game needs more guys who play with flair and energy. With average defense in right, he could be a huge impact bat who has OBPs near .400 with the aforementioned power, as long as he can hold or reduce his strikeout rate (25.6 percent last year) as he moves up the ladder.
28. Bobby Miller, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 24 | 6-5 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 29 in 2020
Last year’s ranking: 50
For pure stuff, Miller has few peers, if any, among minor-league starter prospects. He can sit 96-100 mph and has touched 102 in shorter outings, working with a four-pitch mix where everything is above-average. His changeup has unusual power to it — it shouldn’t be that surprising, if Miller were to throw in the towel, he’d do it harder than anyone else — but also is very deceptive out of his hand, generating swings and misses about half the time he throws it. His slider is 85-91 with sharp downward break, and he’s got a power breaking ball — again, he has power stuff, in case you didn’t catch that earlier — that’s pretty close to 12-6, and I’d probably put it a half-grade over the slider if I didn’t know that the slider was slightly more effective at getting whiffs and chases this year. The one flaw in Miller’s game is that he’s worse with runners on base, in results but also in stuff, losing about a half a mile an hour on his pitches and missing fewer bats when he’s working from the stretch. With the bases empty, hitters hit .188/.263/.259 off Miller, but with men on base they hit .278/.335/.451, including eight of the 12 homers Miller allowed on the season. It’s enough that Miller is going to have to make an adjustment at some point to reach his ceiling. It’s No. 1 starter stuff, with close to average command. If he can hold it better when he works from the stretch, he’ll be a top-10 pitcher in baseball.
29. Kevin Alcántara, OF, Chicago Cubs
Age: 20 | 6-6 | 188 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018
Last year’s ranking: Unranked
Alcántara was the main part of the return for Anthony Rizzo when the Cubs traded the fan favorite to the Bronx in 2021, and since then he’s emerged as one of the highest-upside prospects in the minors. Alcántara debuted in the GCL at age 16 back in 2019, when he was gangly and uncoordinated but also oozed projection. After the pandemic, he came back a different guy, adding probably 20 pounds of muscle and gaining coordination, hitting .345/.423/.588 in 34 games in the two complex leagues. In 2022, he moved to full-season ball at 19, hitting .273/.360/.451 for Myrtle Beach, historically a bad place for power hitters, finishing eighth in the Carolina League in slugging and 16th in OBP. (He hit .306/.368/.508 on the road, which would have led the league in slugging and put him 10th in OBP.) Alcántara has loose hands and a great swing with a strong first move toward the ball, after which he lets his legs do some of the work. He already recognizes spin well for his age and drives the ball to the opposite field, while he’s a plus runner who could stay in center even though he’s likely to add another 20-25 pounds of muscle. He carries some risk, as he’s 6-6 and has long levers, striking out 24.8 percent of the time last year. If he can hold that down, though, he could be a top-5 prospect in baseball in a year or two, a potential superstar with plus-plus power and speed in a solid or better center fielder.
30. Henry Davis, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 1 in 2021
Last year’s ranking: 20
Davis had a really rough go in his first full pro season, as he played in just 59 regular-season games around two IL stints due to a wrist injury. He was hit by a pitch 20 times in those 59 games, and then seven more times in 17 Arizona Fall League games, with one of those HBPs causing a non-displaced fracture in his left wrist that he tried to play through, returned after a one-month trip to the injured list, then went back to the IL in early July and missed more than seven more weeks due to soreness in the same wrist. He still hit .264/.380/.472 during the regular season and .260/.435/.440 in the AFL, losing some power after all the wrist trouble and seeing an OBP boost because he thinks he’s Don Baylor at the plate. Davis is a very athletic catcher with a plus-plus arm and plus power, already showing the ability to hit even high-end velocity. He doesn’t have the same results against offspeed stuff — with lower contact quality he’ll need to improve. He’s an extremely hard worker, bringing that reputation from his time at Louisville, and has already made progress as a receiver, but you can still find many scouts who think he can’t catch and/or want to move him to another position, such as third base or right field. I’m in the camp that thinks he’ll stick behind the plate, and that his on-base and power skills will make him an occasional All-Star — but he has to stay healthy and get a lot more reps to get to that point, too.
Brett Baty appeared in 11 games for the Mets last season. (Gregory Fisher / USA Today)
31. Brett Baty, 3B, New York Mets
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 12 in 2019
Last year’s ranking: 41
Baty was nearly out of a job a few weeks ago, so I imagine he was the one person in the Mets organization happy when the Carlos Correa signing fell through. Baty is a strong hitter, topping out at 113 mph in his major-league stint last year and averaging over 91 mph on 30 batted balls (so yes, small sample size caveats apply). He returned to Double A to start 2022 after spending 40 games there to finish the prior year, and demolished the level, hitting .312/.406/.544 and cutting his ground-ball rate from 61 percent there in 2021 to 42.6 percent last year. He did backslide a little in the majors, so there’s some swing maintenance for the Mets to do so he stays rotational enough to get the ball in the air. Baty is big for third baseman but a solid athlete who’s worked hard on his defense, which is more than just playable there, but I don’t know if he’d be as good in an outfield corner, so staying at third is by far his best chance to be an above-average regular. The Mets should just give him 500 at bats this year, as there’s nothing left for him to learn in the minors, and he’s by far their best option there. He has the raw power for 30 homers, but I think he’ll be more 40 doubles/20 homers with OBPs well above .350.
32. Jasson Domínguez, OF, New York Yankees
Age: 19 | 5-10 | 190 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2019
Last year’s ranking: 78
Is there a bigger example of a “post-hype prospect” than Domínguez? Touted as the next Mickey Mantle as the Yankees gave him their entire international bonus pool when he was 16, he didn’t get to play in a minor-league game until he turned 18 because of the pandemic. He hit a very credible .258/.346/.398 in full-season ball, for Low-A Tampa, in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League in 2021, as one of only three 18-year-olds to get at least 200 plate appearances in the league (along with Alex Ramírez, also on this list). He returned to Tampa this year as a 19-year-old, still young for the level, improved to .265/.373/.440, moved up to High-A Hudson Valley, hit .306/.397/.510 there, and finished with a week in Double-A Somerset. I’ll recap: He started 2022 with 57 games of pro experience, total, and that’s all he had had since signing in July of 2019. He ended up hitting well enough in High A that he would have finished in the top 10 in the Sally League in OBP and slugging if he’d qualified. Why do I get the sense people think he’s a disappointment? And it’s not like he lacks tools — he has electric bat speed, 70 raw power, 70 run, probably 70 defend in center. He does have work to do as a hitter, and during that one week in Double A you could see he needs to learn to adjust to pitchers who can change speeds on him and locate their secondary stuff more than anything he’s seen before. The body is maxed out, but there’s also no need for him to get stronger or develop more power. I see a guy with three plus-plus tools who is the age of a college sophomore and has earned his way to Double A. What’s not to like?
33. Daniel Espino, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Age: 22 | 6-2 | 225 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 24 in 2019
Last year’s ranking: 51
Espino looked incredible in spring training and in April, when he made four starts for Akron and punched out 35 of the 68 hitters he faced — not literally, that would be battery — for a strikeout rate of 51.4 percent. Then he suffered patellar tendinitis in his knee, going on the injured list in May … and never returned, as his shoulder came up sore while he was trying to return from the knee injury in late June and early July. When healthy, he shows a four-seamer in the mid- to upper-90s, touching 100, that he works with up in the zone, and then works down with a plus slider with fierce vertical break. He has a curveball that he’s largely dismissed in favor of the slider, and a changeup that’s still a work in progress but was mostly solid-average in late 2021. He also came out throwing strikes in 2022, which was the main area left for him to improve after his incredible season the year before. Now it’s down to health; he’s supposed to be ready for spring training, and if we had a crystal ball that said he was going to hold up all year, he’d be the Guardians’ top pitching prospect — which is really saying something.
34. Endy Rodriguez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 170 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018
Last year’s ranking: Unranked
The Mets traded Rodriguez to Pittsburgh to get Joey Lucchesi as part of the three-team trade that sent Joe Musgrove to San Diego; Lucchesi threw 38 innings for the Mets in 2021 before undergoing Tommy John surgery, while Rodriguez has become one of the best catching prospects in baseball. Rodriguez can really hit, and he’s shown he can play multiple positions, including catcher. Early in the season, he was splitting time with Henry Davis, but after Rodriguez became a full-time catcher on July 2, his bat really took off: he hit .379/.461/.731 the rest of the way, despite two promotions in that span that landed him in Triple A to end the year. It’s not elite bat speed or exit velocity, but the ball carries well off his bat, even more so after he reduced his leg kick and initial hand movement partway through the season. He’s improved substantially behind the plate with experience, blocking better, receiving more smoothly, backpicking runners, and nailing 45 percent of would-be basestealers while he was in Double A. He’s also excellent at first base, showed this year he could play second base in a pinch and has some experience in the outfield, where he’s average in a corner. He might not be a star, but I’m not ruling it out, and he seems very, very likely to be an average regular, whether it’s as someone’s full-time catcher or a sort of unicorn who catches and also plays several other positions.
35. Elijah Green, OF, Washington Nationals
Age: 19 | 6-3 | 225 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 5 in 2022
Last year’s ranking: Ineligible
Green was the fifth pick in the 2022 draft out of IMG Academy, which also produced fellow Nats farmhand James Wood (further up this list). Green and Wood are both very toolsy, athletic outfielders with unusual strength and size for their ages, although Green isn’t as tall as Wood and has more of a football body — unsurprising, since his dad, Eric Green, was a first-round pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers and played 10 years in the NFL. Elijah has plus power already that projects to grade 70, with tremendous hand acceleration and loud contact when he gets his arms extended. As a result, his power comes on pitches middle and away, while he shows lower-impact contact on pitches on the inner third. He does have some swing and miss even in the zone on fastballs in the upper half and he’ll chase breaking stuff down and away. He’s a 70 runner and plus defender in center with a very strong arm, and might have gotten more attention for his range and reads if he hadn’t had the misfortune to be in the same draft class as the son of Andruw Jones. There’s risk here in the bat, but it’s an unusual power/speed combo in a center fielder … so unusual that the Nats have two prospects who fit that description.
36. Tanner Bibee, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 156 in 2021
Last year’s ranking: Unranked
Bibee is yet another command right-hander taken by Cleveland from a California college whose last name starts with B who has entered their system and seen his velocity jump from fringy to plus. The other guy was a fourth rounder, and Bibee was a fifth rounder, so the symmetry isn’t quite perfect, but work with me here. Bibee saw his velocity increase across most of the season, to the point where he hit 99 mph a few times in July and August, and was still sitting 93-97 when I saw him at the start of September. His fastball has some ride to it, but it’s probably his third-best pitch. He has a wipeout changeup at 82-84 with late, biting fade to it, and it’s so effective that hitters whiff on it more than half of the time they swing. (Maybe they should stop swinging?) He also has an above-average slider in the mid-80s, up to 88, with solid tilt, that he uses almost exclusively to right-handers, and a show-me curveball that looks pretty but that he probably shouldn’t use more than a few times a game. Even with the big jump in velo, he’s still a strike-thrower, with a walk rate of just 5.2 percent, thanks to a repeatable delivery that keeps him online to the plate, with added deception from his high three-quarters slot. He looks like a potential No. 2 starter, especially if he goes heavy changeup/slider and doesn’t rely too much on the fastball.
37. Ceddanne Rafaela, CF/SS, Boston Red Sox
Age: 22 | 5-8 | 152 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2017
Last year’s ranking: Unranked
Rafaela is one of the smallest players on this ranking, listed at 5-8, 152 pounds, and that’s not that far off from reality, but he was the big breakout guy in Boston’s system this year after he started driving the ball a lot more often and emerged as a potential 70 or 80 defender in center. Rafaela, who was born in Curaçao, swings first and asks questions later, with a very fast bat and excellent bat control that helps him make contact even on pitches out of the zone, although it also leads to a lot of weaker contact on those same pitches. He doesn’t miss fastballs and actually hangs in there (pun intended) well on curveballs, but given how high he starts his hands, he doesn’t always have time to adjust on other pitches, and he’s going to have to start to pick them up sooner out of pitchers’ hands. His defense is elite and he’s a 70 runner as well, so he doesn’t have to hit that much to be a solid big leaguer, and he could be an above-average regular as a low-OBP, 20+ homer guy. The hope is that he improves the choices he’s making as a hitter and that he recognizes pitch types sooner with experience and reduces some of that chase to give himself a chance to be a high-average hitter and potential star on both sides of the ball.
38. Brandon Pfaadt, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age: 24 | 6-4 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 149 in 2020
Last year’s ranking: 87
Pfaadt was the Diamondbacks’ last pick in the five-round 2020 draft, 12 picks from the end of the round, and signed for well under slot as a junior out of Division II Bellarmine. He has since become their best pitching prospect after two years of striking out everyone in sight, including a minor-league-leading 218 punchouts last year. Pfaadt does a lot of it just with his fastball, touching 97-98 mph and sitting 92-94, filling up the strike zone with a four-pitch mix, using the slider as his primary out pitch against right-handers and both changeup and slider to lefties, with nearly 70 percent of his pitches going for strikes last year. He’s built like a workhorse starter, 6-4 and listed at 220 pounds, with a good delivery he repeats very well. As is, he’s at least a mid-rotation starter, but there could still be some further upside if either of those two main offspeed pitches improves.
39. Gavin Stone, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 159 in 2020
Last year’s ranking: Unranked
Stone was the Dodgers’ fifth-round pick in 2020, a money-saver out of Central Arkansas who had only just become a full-time starter for the Bears that spring. (His bonus of $97,500 was the fourth-lowest in the entire fifth round, and one of the dozen lowest in the whole draft.) He’s since emerged as the Dodgers’ second-best pitching prospect and isn’t that far behind their top guy, Bobby Miller, who was their first-rounder in the same year. Stone is a very athletic right-hander who works at 94-96 mph with a plus-plus changeup that hitters can’t touch — the whiff rate on the pitch was over 50 percent last year and it’s effective against left- and right-handed hitters, a major reason why he had as close to zero platoon split. His slider is solid-average, mid-80s with short, downward break, good enough to get right-handers to swing and miss but not a pitch he’ll use much against lefties. Stone pitched at three levels last year, from High A to Triple A, and his highest ERA at any of those stops was 1.60; he finished the year with 168 strikeouts in 121 2/3 innings (33.8 percent of batters faced) and a hilarious 1.48 ERA. His command and control are the only things keeping him from a major-league rotation right now, as they’re no better than grade 45, but he’s also not that far away, and he repeats his delivery well enough that I expect him to get to average or better soon and end
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