NHL playoff picture: Sizing up the Western Conference at the All-Star break
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By Dom Luszczyszyn
6h ago
The All-Star break is over and the stakes are going to start to ramp up from now until the end of the season. It’s the stretch drive with eight playoff spots available to each conference — some more contentious than others.
The East presents an actual playoff race which is a welcome surprise after last year’s half-season dud. Out in the Wild West, things are more wide open than I’ve ever seen. It’s going to be a fascinating final 30-or-so games.
Every day we have an updated look at each team’s odds and where they stand, but sometimes it’s wise to dig deeper to understand why each team lands where it does, with the All-Star break serving as a perfect time for that. That’s the goal here with a focus on the West (you can find the East here).
I’ve separated the league into seven tiers based on the following probability ranges.
Basically in: Above 95 percent
Safe shots: 85-95 percent
Likely bets: 65-to-85 percent
The bubble: 35-to-65 percent
Unlikely bets: 15-to-35 percent
Long shots: 5-to-15 percent
Basically out: Below 5 percent
Here’s how each team in the West stacks up.
Basically in
Dallas Stars: 99 percent
Seattle Kraken: 97 percent
Raise your hand if, at the start of the season, you figured the top two playoff locks in the West would be Dallas and Seattle. No one?
Dallas hit “playoff lock” status in early December and the Stars were a decent bet to start the year, too. But Seattle is a big surprise with a massive turnaround. This year’s Kraken are much closer to what the nerds expected last season and now they’re already very close to punching their playoff ticket. There’s still room for a collapse, but it would need to be a monumental one with the ground Seattle has on the rest of the West.
Safe shots
Edmonton Oilers: 93 percent
Minnesota Wild: 87 percent
Colorado Avalanche: 85 percent
Edmonton, Minnesota and Colorado haven’t quite punched their ticket yet and the West is looking like it’ll be very competitive this year — but in terms of safety, these three look a little closer to the finish line. It’s hard to imagine the Oilers, Wild and Avalanche outside the dance.
Colorado has the worst record, but it also arguably has the best team … when healthy. The time when the Avalanche are finally fully healthy is coming and they should rack up the wins shortly after. They already have been of late and having the fifth easiest schedule going forward should also help. It’s the same story for the Oilers who also have seven wins in their last 10 and the fourth easiest schedule going forward. These two teams represented the West last season in the conference finals and while they’ve taken a step back this season, the talent is there for another run. When healthy, the model believes these two are the teams to beat in the West.
As for the Wild, reputation is doing a bit of work here as the model sees what they did last year and expects them to round into form. That’s the main thing placing Minnesota in this tier, five percentage points ahead of the Jets who are on pace to finish 3.5 points ahead of the Wild.
Likely bets
Winnipeg Jets: 82 percent
Calgary Flames: 81 percent
Vegas Golden Knights: 68 percent
Los Angeles Kings: 65 percent
Have you ever played musical chairs? Imagine there are eight seating options and you’re playing with eight of your closest friends. The odds of each of you getting a seat are very likely — 89 percent for each of you — but one of you will be extremely disappointed (shoutout to MoneyPuck for the great analogy).
That’s the Western Conference right now: nine teams above 65 percent. One of them is not going to make it, but all of them are more likely than not to make it. That’s why there are four teams in this tier.
The Jets are the likeliest of the four teams and realistically should be in the tier above. They’ve been in a bit of a tailspin of late that has soured their odds, but under Rick Bowness, this has been a much-improved group. I wouldn’t bet against them and the model’s lukewarm take on their odds mostly reflects the team’s weak priors. They’re a different team this year.
It’s a similar story for the team right behind Winnipeg, but for the opposite reason. Calgary was on top of the West last year, but has struggled to make much of an impact this season. Even with all the summer upheaval there should’ve been enough talent coming back in to make the Flames competitive. The strong priors from the remaining cast should’ve provided a nice foundation for a strong team. So far we haven’t seen it yet. Calgary is seventh in expected goals percentage at five-on-five reflecting a strong system, but they’ve struggled to earn results that meet those expectations.
The model is stubborn with its belief in the Flames despite Calgary currently being the team without a chair in the West. It expects the tides to turn, with a soft remaining schedule a strong part of that. Considering the team’s recent performance against the Blackhawks, winning those “easy” games won’t be a given.
As it stands now, the teams most likely to miss are either Vegas or Los Angeles.
It’s a bit of a shock to see Vegas in this position after a torrid 13-2-0 start. That version of the team feels like a distant memory though as the Golden Knights are once again being undercut by injuries. They’re a relatively top-heavy team and missing just one of those top guys has a tendency to throw everything out of sync.
Vegas once looked like a mortal lock, as it once did last year, but losing eight of 10 has put the team’s chances in a serious downward spiral. More alarming is the news that Mark Stone would be out indefinitely after back surgery. The loss of the team’s best player dropped Vegas’ playoff chances from 81 percent to 68 percent. With the toughest — and road-heavy — schedule of any potential playoff team, Vegas will likely have to fight for its playoff life down the stretch.
As for the Kings, their standings position is a bit of a mirage from playing more games than anyone in the West. By points percentage, the Kings are in a wild-card spot and are the least likely playoff team due to the model’s belief that Calgary will overtake them. Having the 10th-best goal differential in the conference doesn’t help.
It’s no guarantee that Calgary will pass Los Angeles, but the Kings will need to figure things out at five-on-five to hold steady. “Talent” has long been the issue for Los Angeles where its skaters can’t finish and its goalies can’t stop pucks. At five-on-five the difference is even starker this year with the Kings being 3.4 percentage points below expectations compared to 2.5 percentage points last season. Combine that with an overall drop in controlling the chance share and a penalty kill that can’t buy a save and it’s not hard to see why there’s some skepticism in Los Angeles for this season.
The bubble
Nashville Predators: 42 percent
There are nine teams in the West with playoff chances north of 65 percent, making it very likely that the eight teams will come from that group. But after a tough start, the Nashville Predators are starting to breathe down that group’s necks to make things interesting. The Predators have won five of their last six and 10 of their last 15 to roar back into the race. The Predators’ playoff chances were just 13 percent 15 games ago — they’ve more than tripled since.
Nashville is still well on the outside and is a middling five-on-five team with a horrible power play. But the Predators have shown a knack in recent years for coming on strong in the second half and they still have the talent on their side to pull it off. Nashville started the season with a 70 percent chance thanks to its stars, and those stars are starting to heat up. Really though, it’s going to come down to how hot Juuse Saros can stay. He has the league’s best goals saved above expected since November, but if Saros stumbles, the rest of the team likely won’t be enough to keep up in the race.
Unlikely bets
No one.
Long shots
No one.
Basically out
St. Louis Blues: <1 percent
Vancouver Canucks: <1 percent
San Jose Sharks: <1 percent
Arizona Coyotes: <1 percent
Anaheim Ducks: <1 percent
Chicago Blackhawks: <1 percent
Sorry to any St. Louis Blues fans that might still be holding out hope, but this version of the Blues is nothing close to the 2019 version. The rest shouldn’t be a surprise, they haven’t had a shot for months.
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