The 2023 Aces Project: MLB insiders rank starting pitchers by tiers, from No. 1s to ‘guys’
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The Athletic MLB Staff
Mar 23, 2023
By Andy McCullough, Will Sammon and Sahadev Sharma
If you talk to people in baseball long enough, you’ll notice a pair of sentiments about the modern game that appear to clash.
1. Pitching has never been better.
2. Starting pitchers aren’t what they used to be.
On the surface, these two concepts feel contradictory. In the eyes of executives, analysts and scouts — the people paid to study this sport for a living — both are true. The current crop of arms throws harder, with nastier off-speed stuff, than the preceding generations. Some of this stems from the ongoing optimization of relievers. But starters have also experienced an uptick. Ask any hitter what it is like standing inside the big-league batter’s box. Pretty much every day at the office is a tough one.
Yet starting pitchers have also never been asked to do less. Consider this: In 2022, only eight pitchers surpassed 200 innings, which was long considered the benchmark for a useful season for a starter. In 2012, 31 pitchers met that standard. In 2002, the number was 42.
Responsibility for this reduction in workload should not fall at the feet of the starters. A basic understanding of the math undergirding the sport has convinced front offices to limit the exposure of starters and amplify the usage of relievers. Why send a tired starter to face a lineup for a third time when a fresh reliever is available? This relatively straightforward concept has reshaped the sport.
It has also made it tougher than ever to answer a different sort of question: Who is an ace? Who meets the criteria as a No. 1 starter? It used to be simple. An ace missed bats and didn’t miss games. An ace showed up in October after guiding his team through September. An ace lasted deep into games. An ace could be depended upon to repeat his performance the next year.
These days, through little fault of the athletes, it has become harder and harder to meet those qualifications. Which makes the debate even more riveting. For the past four years, we’ve engaged in an exercise to determine who are the aces in baseball. Once again we surveyed a collection of 20 executives, analysts and scouts to determine the best of the best. They were granted anonymity in order to speak freely about players on opposing teams. We contacted general managers, assistant general managers and special assistants to the general manager. We contacted scouts with decades of experience and former players who segued into front office roles. We contacted analysts who entered the game through the world of numbers. From this diverse pool, we are trying to find a consensus.
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Each member of the panel filled out a survey featuring 81 pitchers. The list included the top 60 in FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement in 2022, plus a collection of 21 others we thought merited consideration. To tweak the formula from last year, we added several highly-touted pitchers who had missed time with injuries in recent years.
For each player, the panelist provided a scouting grade, from a No. 1 pitcher to a No. 5. This is the present-day grade on these pitchers: Who they are right now. If a respondent wanted to denote that the pitcher could one day become a No. 1, the grade included an asterisk, classifying status as an “applicant.”
The grading system is also straightforward. A No. 1 grade nets five points, a No. 2 grade nets four, No. 3 nets three, No. 4 nets two and No. 5 nets one. An asterisk adds a half point to the score. We culled the list down to a top 50, split into five tiers:
Tier 1 (100) — The Inner Circle: The unanimous No. 1s.
Tier 2 (99.5 to 90) — Aces: The pitchers you can trust all regular season and again in October.
Tier 3 (89.5 to 80) — The Pool of Applicants: The men who might one day call themselves aces.
Tier 4 (79.5 to 60) — No. 2s and No. 3s: Those with lower ceilings, but still elevated floors. It should be noted — these guys are awesome at baseball.
Tier 5 (59.5 and below) — Guys: Everyone else. Or, in the parlance of the scouting world, “just a guy.”
There were no unanimous No. 1s in the last exercise. That changed this year. In part, because a certain star returned from injury.
So, back to that question. Who are the aces in baseball? This is our best attempt at telling you.
Tier 1 (100) — The Inner Circle
(Jasen Vinlove/Miami Marlins/Getty Images)
1. Justin Verlander, RHP, New York Mets
Rating: 100
Ace votes: 20
Age: 40
2022 stats: 18-4, 1.75 ERA, 175 IP, 9.5 K/9, 2.49 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
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You may notice that Verlander was unranked last year. That’s because he wasn’t featured on the survey after missing almost all of 2020 and 2021. It didn’t seem fair to ask evaluators what to make of him.
Well. Now we know.
Verlander returned from Tommy John surgery with one of the best seasons of his storied career. He captured the World Series and the American League Cy Young award. On the wrong side of 40, he expects to do it all again with the Mets this season. He is 56 victories away from 300. Would you bet against him?
“He will always be a No. 1,” one scout said.
“To miss a year and still come back as a No. 1 is crazy,” one executive said.
“At 40, this is what the best pitcher in baseball looks like,” one evaluator said.
Tier 2 (99.5 — 90) — Aces
2 (tie). Corbin Burnes, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Rating: 97
Ace votes: 16
Applicant votes: 2
Age: 28
2022 stats: 12-8, 2.94 ERA, 202 IP, 10.8 K/9, 3.14 FIP
2022 rating: 99.5
Burnes won the National League Cy Young award in 2021. He figures to contend for the crown again in 2023 — unless the Brewers trade him to an American League club. Burnes hit a little blip during the final two months of last season — a fact that irritated him when referenced in his contentious arbitration hearing — but he remains among the best of the best. “Cerebral,” one scout said. “Durable. Damn good. He’s got it all.”
2 (tie). Gerrit Cole, RHP, New York Yankees
Rating: 97
Ace votes: 18
Age: 32
2022 stats: 13-8, 3.50 ERA, 200 2/3 IP, 11.5 K/9, 3.47 FIP
2022 rating: 97.5
Cole has done something quite difficult. He signed the largest free-agent contract (nine years, $324 million) in the history of the sport, to play for the most scrutinized club, in the nation’s largest media market. And he has pretty much lived up to his billing. One executive called him the “archetype No. 1.”
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Cole has made at least 30 starts in every full season dating back to 2017. He led the sport in strikeouts last season. “Somehow seems underrated now,” another executive said.
4. Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami Marlins
Rating: 96
Ace votes: 16
Age: 27
2022 stats: 14-9, 2.28 ERA, 228 2/3 IP, 8.1 K/9, 2.99 FIP
2022 rating: 82.5
The unanimous National League Cy Young award winner did something unique in 2022. He pitched deep into games, deeper than any of his peers. He logged 23 more innings than the next closest man, Phillies starter Aaron Nola. He completed six games. “Throwback bullpen saver, even on days he doesn’t ‘have it,’” one scout said. The Marlins trusted him to finish what he started. “Maybe the only true ace by the traditional definition of the term,” one executive said.
So why wasn’t Alcantara a unanimous No. 1 from our panel? Well, he came close. In an era defined by strikeouts, Alcantara compiles whiffs at a relatively pedestrian rate. “Might be a No. 1, but would like to see him miss more bats before making the leap,” one scout said. There’s always next year.
5. Max Scherzer, RHP, New York Mets
Rating: 95.5
Ace votes: 15
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 38
2022 stats: 11-5, 2.29 ERA, 145 1/3 IP, 10.7 K/9, 2.62 FIP
2022 rating: 96
The Hall of Fame beckons whenever Scherzer calls it a career. Hitters wish that would happen sooner rather than later. If his age has begun to show, it is only related to his health, not his results. Scherzer’s ERA in 2022 was the lowest of his career. And now he can partner up with his old teammate from Detroit. “If Verlander can still do it,” one scout mused, “why can’t Scherzer?”
6. Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
Rating: 93.5
Ace votes: 14
Applicant votes: 3
Age: 28
2022 stats: 15-9, 2.33 ERA, 166 IP, 11.9 K/9, 2.40 FIP
2022 rating: 85.5
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If Ohtani only pitched, he might stand beside Verlander in our inner circle. But if Ohtani only pitched, then he would not be Shohei Ohtani. “It’s Roy Hobbs,” one scout said. Because he is Shohei Ohtani, capable of swatting 34 homers with an .875 OPS last season, he cannot take the baseball every fifth day. One executive classified him as a No. 1 starter with the workload of a No. 3. Which is … still pretty good. And what’s scary for hitters is he might only improve. “May somehow still have another level with the sinker he added,” another executive said.
7. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Texas Rangers
Rating: 91.5
Ace votes: 12
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 34
2022 stats: 5-4, 3.08 ERA, 64 1/3 IP, 14.3 K/9, 2.13 FIP
2022 rating: 98
DeGrom provokes outsized reactions from evaluators. Put it this way: One of our respondents referenced the Sinead O’Connor hit “Nothing Compares 2 U.”
“A unicorn,” one executive said.
“The best pitcher, when he’s on the mound,” one scout said.
“He is still on another level than anyone else when he pitches,” one executive said.
And yet …
“Can’t trust it,” one scout said.
“Third season removed from being an ace,” another scout said. “Availability has to be factored in.”
“He’s a No. 1,” another scout said. “And he scares the daylights out of me.”
What to make of deGrom? He has pitched 156 1/3 innings over the past two seasons. His list of maladies is lengthy and varied. But his results remain excellent. He operates at an overpowering level, even as he approaches his mid-30s. It is just a question of how often he will take the baseball.
(Mike Watters / USA Today)
8. Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Rating: 90.5
Ace votes: 10
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 29
2022 stats: 11-13, 3.25 ERA, 205 IP, 10.3 K/9, 2.58 FIP
2022 rating: 80
After spending time in the pool of applicants, Nola scraped by to make the cut as a No. 1 this year. What changed? Nothing, really. He just kept doing what he has been doing since he arrived in the majors in 2015. After a rocky 2021 season, his actual numbers caught up to his peripherals last year. “He’s the best pitcher no one talks about,” one scout said.
Tier 3 (89.5 to 80) — The Pool of Applicants
9. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Rating: 87.5
Ace votes: 8
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 32
2022 stats: 12-7, 2.82 ERA, 153 IP, 9.6 K/9, 2.89 FIP
2022 rating: 88.5
Wheeler dealt with elbow issues down the stretch last year, but it barely dented his prestige among our panel. Wheeler has emerged as one of the game’s best since signing with Philadelphia. He thrived in October as the Phillies scampered into the World Series. His five-year, $118 million contract has turned out to be “one of the best big-money free-agent deals ever,” one evaluator said.
10. Spencer Strider, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Rating: 86
Ace votes: 5
Applicant votes: 6
Age: 24
2022 stats: 11-5, 2.67 ERA, 131 2/3 IP, 13.8 K/9, 1.83 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
Strider did not exactly come out of nowhere in 2022. He had risen from Class A all the way to the big leagues in 2021, his first professional season. But he still stunned observers with the bluntness of his approach and the excellence of his results. As our Eno Sarris recently outlined, Strider only really throws two pitches: An overpowering, 98-mph fastball and a nasty slider. And, at least last season, he didn’t need much more.
Will he need one in the future? Several of our panelists raised the question. “Need to see over a full starter’s workload that he really doesn’t need a third pitch before he’s a No. 1,” one executive said. If Strider can repeat his results in 2023, he should rise even higher on this list.
11. Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Rating: 85
Ace votes: 4
Applicant votes: 4
Age: 29
2022 stats: 14-7, 2.48 ERA, 185 1/3 IP, 8.3 K/9, 2.70 FIP
2022 rating: 77
Fried continues to level up. For several of our panelists, he resides just on the cusp of being a No. 1. “Almost did it,” one executive said. Another scout said Fried is “as good as a No. 2 gets.”
Fried generates fewer strikeouts than some of the others of his ilk. He compensates with exceptional command; Fried ranked fifth among qualified starters with 1.55 walks per nine innings last year. He tends to avoid hard contact. And he doesn’t beat himself. “Command, real s—-,” one scout said. “Entering his peak.”
12 (tie). Shane McClanahan, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Rating: 84
Ace votes: 5
Applicant votes: 6
Age: 25
2022 stats: 12-8, 2.54 ERA, 166 1/3 IP, 10.5 K/9, 3.00 FIP
2022 rating: 65.5
In a variety of ways, McClanahan shows how the sport has evolved in recent years. He never threw more than 100 pitches last season, a year in which he was good enough to start the All-Star Game. “I don’t know if Tampa would even let him be a No. 1,” at least by the standards that once defined the term, one executive said. Added a scout, “Will anyone ever again get to the workload to be considered a 1?”
Then there is McClanahan’s pitch mix. The majority of stuff he throws classifies as off-speed. “Reaches upper 90s from the left side, and yet two-thirds of his pitches are non-fastballs,” one evaluator said. “This is the new reality in MLB.”
Indeed, it is. McClanahan, a first-round pick in 2018, is a product of his era and his environment. He is also a nightmare for hitters.
12 (tie). Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Rating: 84
Ace votes: 6
Age: 30
2022 stats: 13-4, 3.05 ERA, 153 1/3 IP, 11.2 K/9, 3.08 FIP
2022 rating: 92.5
Woodruff had a brutal beginning to 2022. His ERA on May 15 was 5.35. From there, though, he looked much more like himself. Woodruff finished with a 2.41 ERA in his final 20 starts. The only problem was he also missed almost all of June with an injured ankle.
Woodruff cannot become a free agent until 2025. So scouts will keep an eye on him all summer. If Milwaukee falls out of the race in the National League Central, both Woodruff and Burnes could be dangled before the trade deadline.
14. Luis Castillo, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Rating: 82.5
Ace votes: 3
Applicant votes: 3
Age: 30
2022 stats: 8-6, 2.99 ERA, 150 1/3 IP, 10.0 K/9, 3.07 FIP
2022 rating: 74
When the Mariners acquired him last summer, Castillo entered the heat of a postseason race. It was the sort of privilege he had not experienced often with the Reds. Castillo “seemed to like bright lights,” one executive said. A massive swing by Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez undid him in the American League Division Series, but otherwise Castillo excelled in his two October starts.
One scout projected Castillo as a candidate to win the pitcher’s triple crown of wins, strikeouts and ERA. Seattle should be good enough to help with the wins. And Castillo can take care of the rest — as long as he can keep his pitches inside the strike zone. “He has No. 1 stuff, but it plays down because he doesn’t locate enough,” another scout countered.
15. Carlos Rodón, LHP, New York Yankees
Rating: 82
Ace votes: 4
Applicant votes: 2
Age: 30
2022 stats: 14-8, 2.88 ERA, 178 IP, 12.0 K/9, 2.25 FIP
2022 rating: 70.5
His time as a Yankee is not off to a great start. Rodón was shut down for nearly two weeks because of a forearm strain. He resumed a throwing program last week. But the worry about his health will be there for the duration of his six-year contract, a deal worth $162 million.
Rodón earned that payday by excelling the past two years. He led the National League in strikeout rate and fielding-independent ERA last year. The only worry, in the eyes of our panelists, was whether he could stay on the mound. That was what held him back early in his career with the White Sox.
(Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
16. Julio Urías, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Rating: 80.5
Ace votes: 8
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 26
2022 stats: 17-7, 2.16 ERA, 175 IP, 8.5 K/9, 3.71 FIP
2022 rating: 84
One evaluator asked the question at the top of everyone’s mind when it comes to Urías. “How is he only 26?”
Indeed. Urías has accomplished so much already. He debuted when he was still a teenager. He survived the gauntlet thrown down after shoulder surgery in his early years. He excelled in a hybrid role, shifting between the rotation and the bullpen, when the Dodgers won the 2020 World Series. Across the past two seasons, he has become the club’s No. 1 starter, with Walker Buehler sidelined by Tommy John surgery and back injuries dogging Clayton Kershaw.
All of this has set him up for a massive payday this coming winter. If Urías pitches like he did the past two seasons, he figures to earn a contract worth more than $200 million. Possibly worth much, much more than that.
17. Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rating: 80
Ace votes: 1
Applicant votes: 4
Age: 27
2022 stats: 12-4, 2.54 ERA, 184 IP, 9.4 K/9, 3.05 FIP
2022 rating: 63
Gallen, one scout said, “does it all.” His ERA last season tied for the eighth-best among starters. He struck out more than a batter per inning. After a freak injury sidelined him in 2021, he made 31 starts. His 94-mph fastball plays up because he generates so much spin. There’s a lot to like for a pitcher entering his prime.
Tier 4 (79.5 to 60) — No. 2s and No. 3s
18. Shane Bieber, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Rating: 79.5
Ace votes: 2
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 27
2022 stats: 13-8, 2.88 ERA, 200 IP, 8.9 K/9, 2.87 FIP
2022 rating: 92
When he won the American League Cy Young award in 2020, Bieber wielded a fastball that averaged 94 mph. By 2022, his velocity had descended to 91 mph. It is hard to stay at the top. Bieber strained a muscle near his rotator cuff in 2021. He compensated for his declining fastball last season by cutting his walk rate from 3.1 per nine innings in 2021 to 1.6 in 2022. “Velo dipping — but elite command,” one executive said.
19. Dylan Cease, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Rating: 78.5
Ace votes: 3
Applicant votes: 5
Age: 27
2022 stats: 14-8, 2.20 ERA, 184 IP, 11.1 K/9, 3.10 FIP
2022 rating: 64
Some trades hurt more than others. The trade between the Cubs and the White Sox consummated in the summer of 2017 — that one has left a mark. Cease was part of the package, along with outfielder Eloy Jiménez, heading to the South Side in exchange for pitcher José Quintana. Cease was a fringe top-100 prospect at the time. With the White Sox, he has begun to touch his ceiling.
Only three starters accumulated strikeouts at a better rate than Cease last year. The difference between Cease and that trio — Carlos Rodón, Shohei Ohtani and Gerrit Cole — is Cease’s propensity for walks. One executive tabbed him as a pitcher with the arsenal of a No. 1 but the command of a No. 4. That can still be quite effective. But it is what is holding Cease back from vaulting to the top of this list.
20 (tie). Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Rating: 77.5
Ace votes: 4
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 35
2022 stats: 12-3, 2.28 ERA, 126 1/3 IP, 9.8 K/9, 2.57 FIP
2022 rating: 63.5
Limited by back injuries over the past several seasons, Kershaw has still produced tremendous numbers. Since 2020, he has posted a 2.76 ERA with 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. If that sounds unimpressive, it is only because of the heights Kershaw scaled in his 20s. His case for Cooperstown is immaculate. He may walk away after this season. But it won’t be because of an inability to get hitters out.
A series of adjustments Kershaw made after the 2019 season, re-aligning his delivery after a visit to the Driveline headquarters, has extended his career. Kershaw continues to disarm opposing lineups with his fastball and slider, spinning the occasional curveball that draws gasps from the crowd. “Old dawg still got it, baby,” one scout said. Added another, “Who knows how to quantify it, but I want him in the rotation.”
(Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today)
20 (tie). Alek Manoah, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Rating: 77.5
Ace votes: 2
Applicant votes: 5
Age: 25
2022 stats: 16-7, 2.24 ERA, 196 2/3 IP, 8.2 K/9, 3.35 FIP
2022 rating: 48.5
Manoah was the breakout star of last summer’s All-Star Game. The sport would do well to mic him up whenever possible. And there’s a good chance he’ll be back this coming summer. One executive described him as the “best bet” of any young pitcher to become an ace. Manoah relishes the big stage. “Huge cojones,” one scout said.
22. Yu Darvish, RHP, San Diego Padres
Rating: 77
Ace votes: 1
Age: 36
2022 stats: 16-8, 3.10 ERA, 194 2/3 IP, 9.1 K/9, 3.31 FIP
2022 rating: 74.5
Darvish may be the consummate No. 2 starter. There is little shame in that, even if some evaluators believe Darvish may possess more talent than any pitcher on this list, save for maybe his countryman, Shohei Ohtani. After years of cycling through different strategies, Darvish has found success by relying on his 87-mph cutter. He uses the pitch to climb back into counts when he cannot locate his four-seam fastball. And his slider is still ridiculous. He’s been quite good for quite a while. “Newest member of the ‘Boring Good’ Club,” one scout said.
23. Kevin Gausman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Rating: 76.5
Ace votes: 4
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 32
2022 stats: 12-10, 3.35 ERA, 174 2/3 IP, 10.6 K/9, 2.38 FIP
2022 rating: 72
Gausman could be The Patron Saint of Only Throwing Your Good Pitches. His career has taken off since he turned his splitter into a primary weapon. One executive indicated it was “impressive how much he has evolved” since Gausman’s days as a failing prospect in Baltimore. Another evaluator cautioned that Gausman’s simplistic mix, mostly fastballs and splitters, may lead to trouble down the road. “He’s a two-pitch guy, and that second pitch is really, really good,” the scout said. “But when that pitch goes, it’s going to go fast.”
24. Framber Valdez, LHP, Houston Astros
Rating: 74
Ace votes: 1
Age: 29
2022 stats: 17-6, 2.82 ERA, 201 1/3 IP, 8.7 K/9, 3.06 FIP
2022 rating: 57
The Astros were willing to let Verlander leave, in part, because the team possessed a stockpile of starters behind him. Valdez will supplant Verlander as the group’s leader. He earned that with an excellent season in 2022. He leaned on his combination of two-seam sinkers and sliders to become one of only eight pitchers to surpass the 200-inning threshold. His numbers may take a hit in 2023 with the new restrictions on defensive shifts. Valdez produced more groundballs than any starter in the sport last year.
25. Logan Webb, RHP, San Francisco Giants
Rating: 70.5
Applicant votes: 3
Age: 26
2022 stats: 15-9, 2.90 ERA, 192 1/3 IP, 7.6 K/9, 3.03 FIP
2022 rating: 70.5
Webb, the sinkerball specialist, earned the exact same rating as he did in 2022. Not bad! He overcame his inability to throw strikes in the minors to become a top-end starter. Webb saw his strikeout rate decline last season, but he lowered his ERA while taking on more innings than ever before. “He’s proven a lot already,” one scout said.
26 (tie). Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Rating: 68
Applicant votes: 4
Age: 29
2022 stats: 0-0, 1.35 ERA, 6 2/3 IP, 13.5 K/9, 2.96 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
Glasnow, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, has been around for quite some time. But he has rarely been healthy. “I don’t know what to do here,” one executive said. “He’s never made more than 14 starts in a year.” The executive suggested Glasnow has the ability of a No. 1 or a No. 2 starter, but the durability of someone worse than a No. 5. When he does pitch, though, Glasnow can look electric — even in his two-outing cameo last fall.
26 (tie). Joe Musgrove, RHP, San Diego Padres
Rating: 68
Age: 30
2022 stats: 10-7, 2.93 ERA, 181 IP, 9.1 K/9, 3.59 FIP
2022 rating: 62
Musgrove, a San Diego native, is the anchor of the Padres rotation. He made 30 starts for the club in 2022. He made 31 the year before. He may never be a No. 1, in part because his fastball command can falter. The Padres likely won’t mind. “Might be closer to a No. 3, but he’s nasty when he’s on,” one scout said.
(Matt Marton / USA Today)
28. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Rating: 64.5
Applicant votes: 3
Age: 25
2022 stats: 11-11, 2.96 ERA, 191 1/3 IP, 8.9 K/9, 3.59 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
McKenzie stumbled as a starter in 2021. He improved his control, threw more strikes and emerged as the latest stud from Cleveland’s conveyor belt of quality pitching. “Hard to see someone squeezing more out of him than the Guardians,” one scout said.
29. Logan Gilbert, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Rating: 63
Applicant votes: 6
Age: 25
2022 stats: 13-6, 3.20 ERA, 185 2/3 IP, 8.4 K/9, 3.46 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
The Mariners made the playoffs in 2022. The team looks primed to return again this season, in part because of the next two pitchers on this list. Seattle was cautious with Gilbert at the outset of the spring, wary of overextending him after he made 32 starts last year. His command could use refinement, as one executive noted. But all the pieces are there for a future as an All-Star.
30 (tie). George Kirby, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Rating: 62.5
Applicant votes: 5
Age: 25
2022 stats: 8-5, 3.39 ERA, 130 IP, 9.2 K/9, 2.99 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
Kirby was drafted in the first round a year after Seattle selected Gilbert. He is not far behind his teammate. Like Gilbert, he drew raves from our panel. “He’s got awesome stuff,” one evaluator said. Another scout noted how hitters can’t handle his 95-mph heater. “That’s a big fastball, man,” the scout said. “Not just velo, but the way it plays.”
And like Gilbert, the question for Kirby will be how he handles the rigors of the big-league workload. The upside is clear.
30 (tie). Kyle Wright, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Rating: 62.5
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 27
2022 stats: 21-5, 3.19 ERA, 180 1/3 IP, 8.7 K/9, 3.58 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
Wright emerged from an extended foray into minor-league hell to become baseball’s only 20-game winner in 2022. Some of that success stemmed from his position with the Braves, a 101-win club. But most of it came from the usage of his sinker and curveball, which had once made him a star at Vanderbilt.
32. Cristian Javier, RHP, Houston Astros
Rating: 62
Ace votes: 1
Age: 26
2022 stats: 11-9, 2.54 ERA, 148 2/3 IP, 11.7 K/9, 3.16 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
Last October, Javier may have possessed the most effective pitch of all the players in the postseason. It was not a hellacious curveball or nasty slider. It was not a disorienting changeup. It was not a gimmicky offering like a knuckleball, or a sharpened scythe like Mariano Rivera’s cutter. It was a deceptively devastating, four-seam fastball. In a sport that’s become increasingly breaking-ball heavy, Javier dominates with “a unicorn, 80-grade fastball,” one evaluator said.
The pitch clocks at around 94 mph. Javier throws it about 60 percent of the time. And no one can hit it.
Seriously. He gave up one hit in his two postseason starts, one a destruction of the Yankees and the other a no-hitter in the World Series. Houston secured him for the next five seasons with a $64 million extension. That might look like a bargain, if Javier’s fastball remains that elite.
33. Luis Garcia, RHP, Houston Astros
Rating: 60
Age: 26
2022 stats: 15-8, 3.72 ERA, 157 1/3 IP, 9.0 K/9, 3.93 FIP
2022 rating: 59.5
His delivery, baffling and beautiful though it was, is no more. Alas. With the new rules in place, Garcia will have to be known now as yet another rotation mainstay developed by the Astros. He resided in the bullpen last October. With Justin Verlander gone, Garcia will move up in Dusty Baker’s pitching hierarchy.
Tier 5 (59.5 and below) — Guys
34. Nestor Cortes, LHP, New York Yankees
Rating: 59.5
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 28
2022 stats: 12-4, 2.44 ERA, 158 1/3 IP, 9.3 K/9, 3.12 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
Cortes demonstrated his cameo in 2021 was not a fluke. He made the All-Star team last summer. He pitched in October for a 99-win club. The Yankees are banking on Cortes being able to repeat his output. He impressed evaluators with his moxie, and the deceptive life on his 92-mph fastball.
35 (tie). Pablo López, LHP, Minnesota Twins
Rating: 59
Age: 27
2022 stats: 10-10, 3.75 ERA, 180 IP, 8.7 K/9, 3.71 FIP
2022 rating: 63
The Twins gave up one of their best hitters, Luis Arraez, to acquire López. Minnesota marketed the move as a deal for a frontline starter who can help them push for an American League Central crown. Scouts offered a mixed bag of opinions about just how good López actually is. “Nice pickup,” one said. “A touch overrated,” another countered. A third suggested López “seems to have plateaued.” A fourth insisted “this trade will be remembered as a big robbery for the Twins.”
35 (tie). Drew Rasmussen, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Rating: 59
Age: 27
2022 stats: 11-7, 2.84 ERA, 146 IP, 7.7 K/9, 3.26 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
The Rays didn’t just give away Willy Adames in 2021. Rasmussen was one of the pitchers who came to Tampa Bay in the deal. He had mostly worked in relief for Milwaukee. The Rays have turned him into a force as a starter — in limited doses. Part of the challenge of evaluating Tampa Bay pitchers, some of our panel have mentioned over the years, is how brief their outings can be. Rasmussen has never thrown more than 97 pitches in a big-league game. He made 28 starts in 2022. He ventured beyond the sixth inning in only four of them.
37. Hunter Greene, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Rating: 57.5
Applicant votes: 9
Age: 23
2022 stats: 5-14, 4.44 ERA, 125 2/3 IP, 11.7 K/9, 4.37 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
Here is an interesting case. Greene received a first for this exercise: A present-day grade of No. 4 starter — with the potential to one day be an ace. He was chosen with the No. 2 pick in the 2017 draft. His ceiling is sky-high, which is why nearly half of our pool recognized his potential to one day become an ace. Our respondents offered several avenues for improvement: Better fastball command, another dose of big-league seasoning, a change of scenery. (“Free Hunter Greene!” one scout said.)
“As much upside as anyone,” another evaluator said. “But is he in the right org to get there?”
38. Robbie Ray, LHP, Seattle Mariners
Rating: 57
Age: 31
2022 stats: 12-12, 3.71 ERA, 189 IP, 10.1 K/9, 4.16 FIP
2022 rating: 78.5
Tracking Ray can feel like riding a rollercoaster. “He’s gone up, down, up, down,” one evaluator said. The Diamondbacks effectively gave up on him in 2020. Ray rebounded to win the American League Cy Young award in 2021. Last season, in the first leg of a five-year, $115 million contract with Seattle, Ray resembled something closer to a No. 3 starter or No. 4 starter. His fastball velocity ticked down, which troubled some of our panelists.
(Reinhold Matay / USA Today)
39 (tie). Jesús Luzardo, LHP, Miami Marlins
Rating: 56
Applicant votes: 2
Age: 25
2022 stats: 4-7, 3.32 ERA, 100 1/3 IP, 10.8 K/9, 3.12 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
A top-10 prospect, according to Baseball America, in 2019 and 2020, Luzardo spent a few seasons in the wilderness before rebounding last season. He has ditched his curveball in favor of slight increases to the usage of his changeup and slider. The results were there for the Marlins in 2022.
39 (tie). Lance McCullers Jr., LHP, Houston Astros
Rating: 56
Age: 29
2022 stats: 4-2, 2.27 ERA, 47 2/3 IP, 9.4 K/9, 3.49 FIP
2022 rating: 71.5
McCullers has been effective in proscribed doses in recent years, as he has dealt with a procession of arm injuries. Elbow trouble limited him to eight starts last season. “Turns out throwing 10,000 curveballs isn’t great for long-term health,” one scout mused. “Who knew?” Yes, McCullers is well known for his aversion to his fastball. He threw the pitch fewer than 25 percent of the time in 2022. His reliance on off-speed means his control can be scattershot. “He still doesn’t really command it,” another evaluator said. “But there’s a lot of games where it doesn’t matter, because it’s just nasty, nasty s—-.”
41. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Rating: 55.5
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 28
2022 stats: 11-9, 4.90 ERA, 161 2/3 IP, 9.9 K/9, 4.06 FIP
2022 rating: 76
There were several troubling signs for Giolito in 2022. His fastball velocity dipped. So did the spin rate on his fastball and his breaking ball. He still generated whiffs, but fewer than in the past. He can become a free agent after this season. His platform year will be fascinating to watch.
42 (tie). Chris Bassitt, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Rating: 54
Age: 34
2022 stats: 15-9, 3.42 ERA, 181 2/3 IP, 8.3 K/9, 3.66 FIP
2022 rating: 57
After a bunch of good years in Oakland, Bassitt did not suffer from a foray into the National League East with the Mets in 2022. He propelled himself into a three-year, $63 million deal from the Blue Jays. Some scouts are wary of how he will fare in the American League East. Then again, there were similar murmurings about Bassitt before last season, too.
42 (tie). Jack Flaherty, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Rating: 54
Applicant votes: 2
Age: 27
2022 stats: 2-1, 4.25 ERA, 36 IP, 8.3 K/9, 4.97 FIP
2022 rating: 80
You can chart the descent of Flaherty’s career through his scores in this exercise. After his breakout performance in 2019, only six pitchers ranked ahead of him in our inaugural rankings.
He scored an 88.5 after the pandemic-wrecked 2020 season. Even after an injury-plagued 2021, our panelists still spoke highly of him.
Something flipped in 2022. Flaherty didn’t pitch much, waylaid by shoulder troubles. When he did pitch, he wasn’t the same dominating force as before. One executive suggested Flaherty would need to make at least 20 starts before a proper evaluation could be made. “Looked like a No. 1 three years ago,” another executive said. “But that was a long time ago.”
42 (tie). Patrick Sandoval, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
Rating: 54
Age: 26
2022 stats: 6-9, 2.91 ERA, 148 2/3 IP, 9.1 K/9, 3.09 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
Sandoval built on a solid 2021 campaign with an even better one in 2022. Drafted out of high school by Houston in 2015, acquired by Los Angeles three years later, his development has taken quite some time. But he looks like a quality arm for the Angels, a club that has fumbled plenty of opportunities building a pipeline of pitching talent.
45. Blake Snell, LHP, San Diego Padres
Rating: 53
Age: 30
2022 stats: 8-10, 3.38 ERA, 128 IP, 12.0 K/9, 2.80 FIP
2022 rating: 61
In the second half of 2022, Snell finally resembled the elite starter San Diego thought it had acquired from Tampa Bay after the 2020 season. He struck out 12.1 batters per nine with a 2.19 ERA in 14 outings. “Love me some tall lefties with a release that’s hard to replicate,” one scout said. The problem was that Snell’s renaissance occurred across only 78 innings. He continues to struggle to pitch deep into games. “Big stuff, but short on strikes,” one scout said.
46. Chris Sale, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Rating: 51.5
Applicant votes: 1
Age: 33
2022 stats: 0-1, 3.18 ERA, 5 2/3 IP, 7.9 K/9, 2.41 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
In the 2010s, the best pitcher to never win the Cy Young award was Chris Sale. He came close several times. From 2012, his first year as a starter with the White Sox, until 2018, he finished in the top six in voting every season and made the All-Star team each summer. Then his body began to break down. Sale made 25 starts in 2019. He has made 11 since then. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020. Two years later, he suffered a stress fracture in his rib cage. He appeared just twice last season.
So what to make of a player with an elite pedigree, a zeal to atone for missed time, and a fastball that has registered in the mid-90s this spring?
The simplest answer came from one executive. “Who f—-ing knows?”
47. Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Rating: 51
Age: 28
2022 stats: 16-1, 2.14 ERA, 130 1/3 IP, 8.2 K/9, 3.28 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
“I hate cats,” one scout said. “But he’s good at baseball.”
There you have it.
(Denny Medley / USA Today)
48. Brady Singer, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Rating: 50.5
Age: 26
Applicant votes: 1
2022 stats: 10-5, 3.23 ERA, 153 1/3 IP, 8.8 K/9, 3.58 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
Singer emerged as a legitimate, middle-of-the-rotation starter for Kansas City, which had staked its second rebuild under Dayton Moore on a class of pitchers selected in the 2018 draft. Thus far, Singer is the only one to find his footing in the majors.
49 (tie). Tyler Anderson, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
Rating: 50
Age: 33
2022 stats: 15-5, 2.57 ERA, 178 2/3 IP, 7.0 K/9, 3.31 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
Anderson flourished with the Dodgers last season. He emphasized the usage of his changeup, which he had begun doing with San Francisco in 2020, and benefited from the run-prevention machine behind him. He parlayed that into a three-year, $39 million contract with the Angels. “There’s still a place in this world for funky lefties with really good changeups,” one evaluator said.
49 (tie). Charlie Morton, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Rating: 50
Age: 39
2022 stats: 9-6, 4.34 ERA, 172 IP, 10.7 K/9, 4.26 FIP
2022 rating: 76
Morton looked like a frontline starter up until last season, when his walk rate rose and he became a bit more prone to home runs. The Braves still forked over $20 million to bring him back for 2023. “Tough guy to bet against,” one evaluator said. Another scout suggested Morton’s results might improve if Atlanta limited him to two turns through the batting order. A third referenced his presence inside the Braves clubhouse. “You want this guy on a winning club,” the scout said.
49 (tie). Freddy Peralta, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Rating: 50
Age: 26
2022 stats: 4-4, 3.58 ERA, 78 IP, 9.9 K/9, 3.06 FIP
2022 rating: 63
Peralta missed a big chunk of 2022 after injuring his lat. He has never thrown more than 144 1/3 innings in a season. “It’s No. 2 stuff, but over the course of the year, he’s a No. 4,” one scout said.
Honorable Mention
The Kyle Hendricks Award For Outstanding Performance In Upsetting The Commenters
Reid Detmers, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
Rating: 46.5
Applicant votes: 3
Age: 23
2022 stats: 7-8, 3.77 ERA, 129 IP, 8.5 K/9, 3.79 FIP
2022 rating: Not ranked
Detmers earned raves from some of his partisans in our panel. Others hung No. 5s on him. We will know more after this season.
Marcus Stroman, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Rating: 46
Age: 31
2022 stats: 6-7, 3.50 ERA, 138 2/3 IP, 7.7 K/9, 3.76 FIP
2022 rating: 58.5
Stroman got dinged for missing time in 2022 and for preemptive concern about how, as a groundball specialist, he will adjust to the lack of infield shifts behind him. Even so, he’s been an effective pitcher for a while, with a 3.23 ERA since 2019.
The Harder They Fall Award
José Berríos, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Rating: 48
Age: 28
2022 stats: 12-7, 5.23 ERA, 172 IP, 7.8 K/9, 4.55 FIP
2022 rating: 73.5
Once a budding ace, Berríos has fallen on hard times with Toronto, who inked him to a lucrative extension after acquiring him from Minnesota. “I think we all thought he was a No. 2,” one scout said. “Can’t blame Toronto for what they did.”
The Adam Wainwright Award, Presented Annually To Adam Wainwright
Adam Wainwright, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Rating: 42
Age: 41
2022 stats: 11-12, 3.71 ERA, 191 2/3 IP, 6.7 K/9, 3.66 FIP
2022 rating: 46
As Uncle Charlie saddles up for one last ride, there are plenty of folks who still believe in him. “Like a lesser Verlander: He’s a No. 3 until he isn’t,” one scout said.
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