World Baseball Classic tiers: Sorting the teams guaranteed a spot in 2026
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By Zach Buchanan
Mar 24, 2023
With a Shohei Ohtani slider and a Mike Trout whiff, the 2023 edition of the World Baseball Classic just ended. Japan hoisted the trophy for the first time since 2009, and the tournament seems to be truly catching a foothold in the popular consciousness.
It was excellent. Let’s talk about the next one.
The next WBC will be held in 2026, and 16 teams will earn automatic berths. Here, we attempt to sort them into tiers based on their anticipated strength three years from now. This is hardly an exact science; we don’t know who will play, much less who might be eligible to play for which country. But thanks to several conversations with people around the game about the international landscape, we feel empowered to take a stab at it.
A note: This isn’t an exhaustive accounting of every team that might make noise in 2026. The bottom team in each pool from the 2023 tournament will have to re-qualify and is therefore not listed here, but some of them could do some damage if they make it back in. The talent pool in Taiwan (listed as Chinese Taipei for this tournament) is exciting, and one that major-league clubs are increasingly turning to for players. Colombia and Nicaragua landed tough pool assignments but easily could be back stronger in 2026. China, the other relegated team, well, it has a lot of ground to cover.
We’re focusing only on the teams we know will be there. Here, sorted into tiers, is a look at who should contend for a title the next time around.
Tier 1: Triennial powers
1. Japan
Japan is the reigning champion and has won three of five WBC titles since the tournament’s inception, and it’s home to Nippon Professional Baseball, the second-best professional league in the world. The country regularly produces major-league players — including several stars, like Ohtani and Yu Darvish, both of whom pitched in the title game against the U.S. — and the big leagues would be filled with many, many more Japanese players if MLB clubs didn’t have to wait until players were posted for signing by their NPB teams. What’s more: Japan takes this tournament seriously, and few of its best players sit out. This year’s squad featured Ohtani, pitching phenom Roki Sasaki, new Red Sox signee Masataka Yoshida, NPB home run king Munetaka Murakami as well as a seemingly endless string of pitchers who throw in the high 90s with nasty splitters. The vast majority of Japan’s roster was comprised of players aged 30 or younger, which means this squad should be every bit as strong three years from now. The combination of aptitude, talent, participation and past success makes Japan the team to beat.
The next WBC will be held in 2026, and 16 teams will earn automatic berths. Here, we attempt to sort them into tiers based on their anticipated strength three years from now. This is hardly an exact science; we don’t know who will play, much less who might be eligible to play for which country. But thanks to several conversations with people around the game about the international landscape, we feel empowered to take a stab at it.
A note: This isn’t an exhaustive accounting of every team that might make noise in 2026. The bottom team in each pool from the 2023 tournament will have to re-qualify and is therefore not listed here, but some of them could do some damage if they make it back in. The talent pool in Taiwan (listed as Chinese Taipei for this tournament) is exciting, and one that major-league clubs are increasingly turning to for players. Colombia and Nicaragua landed tough pool assignments but easily could be back stronger in 2026. China, the other relegated team, well, it has a lot of ground to cover.
We’re focusing only on the teams we know will be there. Here, sorted into tiers, is a look at who should contend for a title the next time around.
Tier 1: Triennial powers
1. Japan
Japan is the reigning champion and has won three of five WBC titles since the tournament’s inception, and it’s home to Nippon Professional Baseball, the second-best professional league in the world. The country regularly produces major-league players — including several stars, like Ohtani and Yu Darvish, both of whom pitched in the title game against the U.S. — and the big leagues would be filled with many, many more Japanese players if MLB clubs didn’t have to wait until players were posted for signing by their NPB teams. What’s more: Japan takes this tournament seriously, and few of its best players sit out. This year’s squad featured Ohtani, pitching phenom Roki Sasaki, new Red Sox signee Masataka Yoshida, NPB home run king Munetaka Murakami as well as a seemingly endless string of pitchers who throw in the high 90s with nasty splitters. The vast majority of Japan’s roster was comprised of players aged 30 or younger, which means this squad should be every bit as strong three years from now. The combination of aptitude, talent, participation and past success makes Japan the team to beat.
2. United States
Much was made of the strength of the U.S. lineup this time around — no one was exaggerating; it was great —but one could waste hours mentally constructing potential alternate lineups that would have been just as scary. Aaron Judge didn’t play. Nor did Bryce Harper. That the United States could run that deep isn’t that surprising. The U.S. is home to the top pro league in the world and produces the majority of players in it. An American WBC lineup that doesn’t have at least three future Hall of Famers is probably slacking off. So why is the U.S. not in the top spot? The pitching, of course. Other teams have found a way to stock their rosters with the best pitchers (Ohtani for Japan, Sandy Alcántara for the Dominican Republic, Mexico’s entire rotation) but the U.S. has yet to be able to convince its aces to suit up. If that ever happens, if the U.S. can form a rotation out of the likes of Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes and Walker Buehler and Zac Gallen, watch out. But that hasn’t happened yet.
3. Dominican Republic
The D.R. was a popular pick to win it all this year, until Venezuela and Puerto Rico handed it losses in pool play. But what’s clear is that the Dominicans can be counted on to field a dangerous roster every single time. No country other than the U.S. produces more major leaguers, and the D.R. has a strong track record of getting its best players to participate. (After all, the country won it all in 2013.) The vast majority of the D.R.’s lineup figures to still be young and awesome in 2026. There’s no reason to think the likes of Julio Rodríguez, Rafael Devers, Jeremy Peña, Wander Franco, Eloy Jiménez and Juan Soto won’t be suiting up for their country again in three years. Manny Machado will be an elder statesman, but probably still an All-Star. (The Padres will be paying him like one.) That doesn’t even get to who didn’t participate this year — Vladimir Guerrero Jr., José Ramirez — or the pitching the D.R. could put together. This past WBC may have been the last ride for legends like Johnny Cueto and Nelson Cruz, but the D.R. will never not be absolutely loaded in this tournament.
4. Venezuela
Venezuela produces fantastic players, although some of the stars on this year’s squad are getting up there in age. David Peralta is 35. That’s how old Jose Altuve will be the next time the WBC comes around. Many of the men who powered Venezuela’s undefeated run to the quarterfinals — Salvador Perez, Eduardo Escobar, Eugenio Suarez, Martín Pérez — will be beyond their primes in 2026. So why are they still ranked so highly here? Because the country still produces studs. There were a few prime-aged stars on this year’s team, like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Luis Arraez, who probably will be even better players in three years’ time. Other notable young Venezuelans, like Brusdar Graterol and Willson Contreras, didn’t play this year. Not to mention the host of top prospects who could be established big leaguers by 2026. This may have been Miguel Cabrera’s farewell, but 2026 could mean hello to Jackson Chourio, Diego Cartaya, Ezequiel Tovar and many others. Where they may be weak, at least compared to the teams ahead of them here, is the quality of their available arms.
Tier 2: Could win it any given year
5. Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico has long been one of the stronger squads in the WBC, and finished second in 2013 and 2017. Why is the island not listed among the four titans in the tier above? Because the Puerto Rico roster is getting old, and unlike those heavy hitters, it doesn’t have as much high-end talent coming up. Let’s start with this year’s roster. Javier Báez and Francisco Lindor are stars. They should remain so in 2026, although they will be in their early 30s. So will Carlos Correa, who declined to participate this year. There are lineups with a worse top three, but Puerto Rico drops off in star power significantly after that. Increasingly, it seems like the U.S. territory has the talent it’s got, including pitchers Marcus Stroman and José Berríos, and little behind it. Thirty-one Puerto Rican players have joined MLB clubs via the draft since 2019, but only two of them — Edwin Arroyo and Matthew Lugo — went in the second round or higher. Only Arroyo sits among MLB Pipeline’s top-100 prospects. But baseball remains the sport of choice in Puerto Rico, and it seems unlikely the talent gap will widen so much as to be able to count them out.
6. Mexico
Unlike Puerto Rico, Mexico is trending in the other direction. The country’s surprise run to the semifinals may set off a baseball boom back home, but there’s also already plenty of talent to call upon in the majors and minors now. For the first time in the WBC, Mexico’s lineup was filled with big leaguers, none of them on the verge of aging out of roster consideration in 2026. Many of them — Isaac Paredes, Alex Verdugo, Luis Urías and especially Randy Arozarena — are very young and very good. Not to mention the other young players, like Alek Thomas and Jarren Duran and Jonathan Arranda, who have yet to break out in the majors but could soon. Staff aces Julio Urías and Patrick Sandoval are only 26, and Jose Urquidy is only 27. Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk and Orioles infielder Ramon Urías, who is Luis’ brother, didn’t even get to play. Mexico also mines the deep reserve of American talent with familial connections to Mexico, so who knows who might show up in red and green in 2026? (One name to consider: Red Sox star prospect Marcelo Mayer.)
Tier 3: Solid, but untapped potential
7. Korea
Like Japan, Korea is home to a highly regarded domestic professional league, in their case the Korean Baseball Organization. Like with Japanese players, the best Korean talent doesn’t make its way to MLB until after many years spent in the KBO. Unlike its neighbor and rival across the Sea of Japan, there are fewer examples of players jumping from the KBO to MLB and becoming stars. This year, Korea’s roster featured just two everyday big-leaguers — Tommy Edman, who was born and raised in the U.S., and Padres infielder Ha-Seong Kim. Korea had success in the first iterations of the tournament, finishing third in 2006 and second to Japan in 2009, but failed to make the quarterfinals in each of the last three editions. This year, a shocking loss to Australia — you’ll find the Aussies much further down this ranking — doomed them in pool play. Observers of Korean baseball find it all a bit baffling, pegging the KBO a good deal behind NPB and MLB when it comes to the science of developing players. Still, this is a country that is baseball mad. It’s a team that is capable of so much more.
8. Canada
A total of 15 players born in Canada appeared in a major-league game last year. One of those was Dominican scion Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who probably won’t be donning a Maple Leaf anytime soon. There was homegrown talent on Canada’s roster this year — especially Cal Quantrill and Bo Naylor, both with the Guardians — and several young players like Abraham Toro and Twins prospect Eduoard Julien who should be back and perhaps better the next time around. But there’s a concerning lack of depth for a country that boasts one major-league club and used to have another. (Naylor is the only person born in Canada on MLB Pipeline’s top 100.) Canada needs to be doing what Mexico does so well, and what it did to land Freddie Freeman: make the most of the many big-leaguers born elsewhere with Canadian connections.
Tier 4: Cuba
9. Cuba
In this ranking, Cuba gets a category all its own. Cuban stars abound in the major leagues, and four Cuban players populate MLB Pipeline’s list of top prospects. Yet, because of Cuba’s geopolitical reality, Cuba’s roster for the WBC reflected little of that talent. Only two of the many bona fide Cuban big-league studs, Yoán Moncada and Luis Robert Jr., played this year, and that was up from tournaments past. Cuban players get to the U.S. by defecting, and this was the first WBC in which the country allowed some defectors — not all, with bans persisting for players who defected during international tournaments or who had spoken harshly of the regime — to join the team. Other stellar Cuban players may have had the opportunity to play for Cuba but chose not to. (Arozarena is Cuban, yet opted to play for Mexico, to which he defected before signing with an MLB club.) Cuba still made a surprise run to the semifinals despite the drain of talent from the island, and if it ever opens up the roster to more of its greatest players — and if those players take the country up on its offer — Cuba, which finished second in the inaugural WBC, could be a force once more.
Tier 5: Emerging threats
10. Italy
Italy has made the quarterfinals in two of the last three WBCs, and it’s done so not on the strength of homegrown Italian talent — though there is a pro league in Italy, and the country’s WBC roster did feature several native Italians — but on the strength of (mostly) Americans with Italian roots. David Fletcher and Vinnie Pasquantino are already big leaguers. Outfielder Sal Frelick, pitcher Mitchell Stumpo and Fletcher’s younger brother, Dominic, all should hit the majors soon. Italy benefitted from a five-way tie in its pool to make the quarterfinals this year, so let’s stop short of predicting a deep run next time around. But the country routinely does well in the European Baseball Championship, and if it can attract more big-leaguers with Italian heritage, it could make some noise in 2026.
11. Israel
Like Italy, Israel has enjoyed surprising success in the WBC. Similarly, it relies heavily on American big leaguers and prospects who are Jewish, which makes them eligible for Israeli citizenship. This year’s club featured big leaguers like Joc Pederson, Alex Dickerson and Dean Kremer, as well as prospects like infielders Zack Gelof and Matt Mervis. Israel had the bad luck of landing in a pool with the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and Puerto Rico this year, which prevented it from repeating its stunning run to the quarterfinals at the 2017 tournament. But Jewish players have long been part of the fabric of baseball, and Israel figures to always benefit from a sizable pool of talent.
12. Panama
Panama is the birthplace of Mariano Rivera, a Hall of Famer and one of the greatest pitchers of all time, although the tiny Central American nation hasn’t produced many talents even approaching that caliber. But that doesn’t mean the cupboard is bare. Nine players born in Panama appeared in the majors last year, and Panama’s WBC roster featured several others, like Ruben Tejada and Christian Bethancourt, who have been big leaguers in recent seasons. There are also plenty of young players coming up through the minors, including Mariners prospect Jose Caballero and Dodgers outfielder Jose Ramos. (Ramos, in particular, will be one to watch.) The next tournament potentially could mean the participation of top pitching prospect Daniel Espino. They’ve got some players, only missed the quarterfinals on a tiebreaker technicality this year and possibly could break through the next time.
Tier 6: Have had success, but fading
13. The Netherlands
The power of European baseball, the Netherlands finished fourth in the WBC in 2013 and 2017. This year, it didn’t make it out of pool play. A roster that has relied heavily on MLB players from Curaçao and Aruba is starting to get old. Xander Bogaerts will be 33 next time around, and Jurickson Profar, Didi Gregorius and Jonathan Schoop are into their declining years. The team’s most accomplished pitcher is closer Kenley Jansen, and he’ll be 38 in March 2026. Those players were something of a golden generation for the Netherlands, and while there is still talent coming out of those islands, notably Red Sox jack-of-all-trades Cedanne Rafaela, who is Curaçaoan. Just not as many of them. Still, something to keep an eye on for 2026: Diamondbacks prospect Druw Jones, the American-born son of former Curaçaoan star Andruw Jones, will be 22 and nearing the height of his powers.
14. Australia
Wait, didn’t the Aussies just run to the quarterfinals? Yes, they did, although it took a boneheaded mishap by Korea to vault Australia to that point. What’s more, evaluators are down on the talent coming out of Australia, or at least the flow of it. In total, major-league organizations sign about five or six players out of Australia every year. Panama sends roughly 10 times that many to the minors on a yearly basis. Australia does have its own professional league, although it can’t hold a candle to the KBO or NPB. One can find Australian players throughout the minor leagues, but they are scattered, not stacked. Liam Hendriks is currently the only Aussie in the big leagues; he didn’t play in this WBC and will be 37 by the next one. Rays prospect Curtis Mead is the only Australian on MLB Pipeline’s top 100, and he didn’t play in the WBC, either. Few of Australia’s pitchers threw all that hard this year. The Aussies are competent, but unless they develop some star power, another deep run seems unlikely.
Tier 7: Hope to escape pool play next time
15. Great Britain
The British team was one of this year’s most pleasant surprises, managing to play just about every one of its more-talented opponents tough during pool play, as well as beating Colombia to avoid relegation. Like the Netherlands, Great Britain relied heavily upon talent from outside England — namely, players born in the Bahamas, the island chain nation that is beginning to produce more and more baseball talent. Much of that talent has yet to fully mature and is still in the minors or even has yet to enter it, but it’s coming. Great Britain was fast and scrappy, while American-born players like Harry Ford and Trayce Thompson gave the lineup some punch. The problem for Great Britain is there is no wellspring of English talent to mine for future tournaments. In Great Britain itself, the baseball community is small. The participation of Bahamian star Jazz Chisholm Jr. could boost their stock in 2026. Then again, if the Bahamas form their own team, as its players would like to do, Great Britain will have a rough go of it.
16. Czech Republic
Look, respect to the Czechs for winning a game with a roster full of part-time athletes — men who are electricians and plumbers and ply other trades by day and then play baseball by night — and not bending citizenship requirements to field a roster of guys who couldn’t find Prague on a map. Only four players on the Czech Republic roster were born in the United States, and the last Czech-born player to appear in a major-league game did so in 1914. That makes the Czechs a fun underdog, but an underdog nonetheless. They beat China, which went 0-4 in pool play, to avoid having to re-qualify in 2026, but it would be quite the stunner if the Czechs advanced to the knockout stage three years from now.
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