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In response to
"The shift ban is fine and will lead to more hits and more offense. Some of the other rule changes seem like they might need to be rethought in the "
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Krusty
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They asked Rickey about it. "Rickey Henderson on MLB’s new rules: ‘You gotta let these kids run’"
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By Brittany Ghiroli
6h ago
One of the more interesting rule changes taking effect in Major League Baseball in 2023 is that the bases are bigger — 18 inches square as opposed to 15 — a tweak that the sport hopes will encourage more stolen bases and give enough space to reduce injuries on the basepaths. With the distance from first base to second base and second to third now 4 1/2 inches shorter, The Athletic spoke to more than a dozen people this spring about whether the sport will return to annually having players with 70 or 80 steals. (To get the former, you have to go back to Jacoby Ellsbury in 2009.)
Opinions varied. But the question kept coming up, in interviews and casual conversations.
How many would Rickey steal?
“Oh, I’d say 1,600 or 1,700,” Henderson told The Athletic in a phone interview on Friday. “I do have 1,406 (all-time).”
As if anyone can forget. Henderson’s stolen base record is so preposterous he’s 468 steals ahead of second-place, Hall of Famer Lou Brock. To put that in perspective, the active leader in steals – Dee Strange-Gordon – is more than 1,000 behind Henderson at 336 and is still a free agent. Henderson stole 100 or more bases three times, including 130 in 1982, which still stands as the single-season record. Only three other players ever hit the 100-steals mark in a season and only one other — Vince Coleman — also did it three times.
Henderson was already aggressive with 1,741 career attempts at stealing a base. But what if the new rules, which also limit the pitcher to two “disengagements” from the mound (i.e. pickoff attempts or step-offs) per plate appearance with a runner on, were enacted when he was playing?
“I’d take an even bigger lead,” Henderson said. “And go more.”
“They’d never get him,” said Astros manager Dusty Baker, who played eight seasons with Henderson in the league. “He’d always be safe.”
Baker said it would depend on how Henderson’s legs held up, but told of Henderson’s assessment, he didn’t think 1,600-1,700 would have been out of the question under baseball’s new rules. Henderson said not having to deal with so many throw-overs from the mound would have kept him fresher. As for the expected rise in catchers making pickoff throws — which has been a topic this spring — it wouldn’t matter if you’ve got Henderson’s kind of speed.
Much of what made guys like Henderson and Coleman successful was their base-running acumen, the pride they took in studying habits and pitchers’ tendencies. All pitchers fall into a rhythm and Henderson was prolific at disrupting it.
Asked what a 4 1/2-inch shorter distance between the bases would mean for him, Henderson said, “It’s an extra step for sure. And I don’t care if they’re throwing, I’m gone.”
Imagining a world where Rickey Henderson got an extra step every time or didn’t have the pitcher to keep him honest, where the game’s most prolific base stealer was even better at stealing bases? It’s tough to wrap your brain around. Henderson stole three or more bases in a game 71 times in his career, including four steals 19 times, and five steals once, on July 29, 1989. He led the American League in steals nine times in the 1980s and led the majors five times.
Henderson stole more bases in 1982 than any big-league team did last year. (Texas again topped the chart with 128.)
Now imagine Henderson watching all these guys double their stolen base totals because pitchers’ pickoffs are limited and the bases are bigger. The gregarious 64-year-old isn’t content watching other guys creep closer to him under an easier set of rules.
“I wish the game would be just left alone,” said Henderson, who was inducted into Cooperstown in 2009, “but if they’re going to (make these changes) they got to add 50 or 60 on mine. That’s the new rule.”
Add 50 or 60 additional stolen bases each of Henderson’s 25 seasons? During his prime? To his career total? Henderson doesn’t specify so we let others weigh in.
“50 or 60,” Baker said, nodding his head as if that sounds about right. “A season?”
“Maybe not 50,” said Harold Reynolds, who led the AL with 60 steals in 1987, the only year that decade Henderson — who was limited to 95 games — didn’t earn the top spot. “But Rickey, he’s different. It would clearly add 10 to 15 to most everybody’s (total) and I’m not just talking about just the Rickey and Vince of the leagues.”
Henderson, who famously called Reynolds in 1987 to deliver the line, “Sixty stolen bases? You ought to be ashamed. Rickey would have 60 at the break,” wants to keep his legacy intact. He does hope that a byproduct of the new rules puts speed back in vogue for the next generation.
“I don’t like the bigger bases because I think I’m getting short-changed,” Henderson said, laughing. “But if it’s going to make the game more exciting, I’m in. They got to prioritize speed more. The game’s gotten away from that. I want to see the game be more exciting, hit and runs, squeezes instead of this one-dimension (offense) that’s been going on. Baseball has become boring.”
It’s a common refrain. More stolen bases was the number one thing fans wanted to see. It’s a dying statistic that isn’t as simple to resuscitate as tweaking a few things on the field. Henderson, like many others in the game, believes it could take years to see a tangible change and that much of the needed adaptation has to occur away from the big-league field in front offices.
“The problem is organizations don’t let them run because of the launch angle stuff. They thought getting thrown out at second base would take away from a guy who may hit a home run that’s up at the plate,” he said. “But you gotta let these kids run. Let the kids run, that’s what I think.”
MLB isn’t looking to turn back the game 40 years, but to sort of reset steals to where they were in the mid-2000s. Through March 23, stolen bases were at 2.3 per exhibition game versus 1.6 a year ago.
“Run like Rickey,” actor Bryan Cranston says in one of the league’s commercials for the new rules over a clip of Henderson charging toward second. It’s impossible to do.
Consider this: A 19-year-old phenom who just got called up to the big leagues would have to average 50 stolen bases a year and play 29 seasons to catch Rickey. Let’s say he’s super fast and averages 65 steals. That player would still have to extend his career 22 years to surpass Henderson. Beyond having elite speed, great health and a long career, getting on base enough would be an issue in the era of high strikeouts and home runs. Henderson’s 81 homers to lead off a game are a major-league record (second place is a distant 53) and he walked an astounding 796 times to lead off an inning. He owns a career .401 on-base percentage over his 25-year career.
“(Hall of Fame pitcher) Jim Palmer once told me (Henderson) was the best player in baseball,” Baker said. “Because if you walked him it was a triple and if you fell behind him it was a home run.”
Maybe someday the sport will see another player with that kind of elite speed. Even under the new rules, getting a player chasing the triple-digit mark in just one season would be thrilling for baseball.
“It’s going to take a special athlete,” said Coleman, who always had a goal of at least 50 steals by the All-Star Break. “I’m never going to say never, but I’d love to see someone come close.”
Even if they did, most people believe no one has a chance at catching Henderson’s all-time record, which is viewed as one of baseball’s unbreakable marks.
“I don’t know,” Baker said, “That’s what they said about Lou Gehrig’s record (for consecutive games played.)”
If anyone even gets in the stratosphere, perhaps they deserve an asterisk. You can bet Henderson will have something to say about it.
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