MLB Hope-O-Meter results: Ranking fans’ optimism in 2023 for all 30 teams
|
Stephen J. Nesbitt
Mar 27, 2023
Baseball is back and … rosier than ever?
I thought the positivity booming through the baseball universe lately was all due to the World Baseball Classic giving us brilliant baseball in mid-March. But it’s more than just that. Coming out of the lockout last year, 66 percent of fans who participated in our MLB Hope-O-Meter said they were optimistic about their favorite team for 2022. A year later, that number is up to 75 percent.
Good vibes, baby!
The Hope-O-Meter has become my favorite exercise each spring, and this year’s edition did not disappoint. We had Guardians fans surge from top-10 pessimism in 2022 to top-10 optimism in 2023. We had Tigers fans do the opposite. We had the Padres and Phillies ride deep postseason runs and offseason spending sprees to podium finishes. We had World Series contenders fade into the midfield. And we had our first perfect Hope-O-Meter score.
Thank you to all who participated. Reading through each of the 6,000-plus responses was wonderful entertainment. There were takes of all shapes and sizes, from smart to silly to seriously spicy. Because the Hope-O-Meter survey requires a Yes/No answer to a complicated question (Are you optimistic about your favorite team in 2023?) I’ve included a few responses for each team. Some have been edited lightly for length, spelling and clarity. Enjoy ’em.
30. Colorado Rockies: 1.8 percent optimism
Last season: 17.2 percent ↓↓
Pessimist Tim: Watching the Rockies interact with the rest of the league reminds me of a scene in “The Simpsons” where Bart and Nelson are racing an apple and an orange down the aisle of the bus, and Ralph leans out and tries to roll a banana down the aisle. The problem isn’t that they’re not trying to compete, the problem is they’re rolling a banana down the aisle while everyone else is rolling fruits that are actually round.
Pessimist Drew: I’m optimistic we will be competitive at home and make-your-eyes-bleed bad on the road.
Optimist Cody: I’m optimistic that the Rockies can put out a competitive and entertaining team every night. The young kids have a chance at regular playing time. Kris Bryant could hit 30+ homers. CJ Cron might finally hit one to the moon. Pitching may show flashes. Ezequiel Tovar could compete for Rookie of the Year honors. Zac Veen could get called up around the All-Star break and show flashes of his potential like he has in spring training. Or, Bryant could spend more time on the IL than in the lineup. Young kids all struggle. Team ERA in the 5s. Team wins 60 games. Fans show up with bags on their heads.
29. Oakland Athletics: 3.9 percent
Last season: 1.9 percent
Pessimist D Bo: Ownership has completely turned its back on Oakland fans. There are some fun prospects in the pipeline, but I am much more likely to watch Shohei Ohtani pitch than any Oakland game this season. I shouldn’t be more excited to watch a rival than I am the team I’ve been rooting for since I was a kid.
Pessimist Ted: A’s fans can’t even fall back on “There’s always next year.” That’s how low the optimism is.
Pessimist Roman: It’s like the sequel to “Major League” without the season-ending success from the first movie.
28. Cincinnati Reds: 4.4 percent
Last season: 5.9 percent ↓
Pessimist Austin: The future is bright, but they’re going to be bad. Hopefully this is a year for Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India to stay healthy and get back on track and the youngsters to learn. Most importantly, I hope the greatest Red of all time, Joseph Daniel Votto, can finish his contract on a high note.
Pessimist Jesse: Hope? Please define what that word means, I’ve heard it before but it has been many years ago.
Pessimist Joseph: The owners literally do not care about winning. They aren’t anti-winning, but they certainly aren’t engaged in an honest endeavor to compete. The small-market mindset they sell to fans, that many fans also accept, is an insult. Then they open their mouths and insult us a little more at festive events, like opening day and team supporter luncheons. But, where are we gonna go? Not the ballpark, I can tell you that.
27. Washington Nationals: 12 percent
Last season: 5.6 percent ↑
Pessimist Ben: I’m not just pessimistic about this season, but the next several seasons. I’d put the over/under on seasons over .500 in the next 10 years at 0.5.
Pessimist Buck: It’s a rebuild that looks like it’s going slower than a six-year-old rebuilding a 1,000-piece Lego kit.
Pessimist Richard: Having new prospects in the system that aren’t close to the majors, no significant major-league-ready acquisitions, a GM and field manager on expiring contracts and an uncertain ownership situation do not bode well for a successful season.
26. Detroit Tigers: 16.2 percent
Last season: 92 percent ↓↓↓↓↓
Pessimist Peter: The Tigers are running back one of the worst offenses in the league, our best pitchers are hurt, and our farm system is barren. After six years of tanking, we are still at rock bottom.
Optimist Steve: Thanks to the new team president, the new coaching staff and their clear and united vision of the ideal position player’s profile (strike zone mastery, some speed, defensive flexibility), I am extremely optimistic about the Tigers’ future. Gone is the old approach to swing from the heels, merely hoping that someone “runs into one,” and therefore waiting for the three-run homer.
Pessimist Furkan: We’re doing the smart thing by rebuilding once again. It’s kind of like the Homer Simpson meme where he comes out of the bushes only to disappear again, which is what last season felt like. So I understand why fans are frustrated, but I also think doing it again and properly this time is the smarter thing to do to hopefully build a lasting contender soon.
25. Miami Marlins: 25 percent
Last season: 62.5 percent ↓↓↓↓
Pessimist Ely: Half the Marlins hitters are being used out of position and the other half are being depended on to rebound from 2022 offensive struggles. Roster is the epitome of mediocre unless the rotation realizes its full potential.
Optimist Andres: More offense was added, pitching has been great, and great additions were made during the offseason. Are they contenders? Maybe not, but the Marlins definitely will beat early expectations this year.
Pessimist Dan: How many times are we going to do this? Every year there’s a handful of guys that get you a little excited, and the over-the-top optimists who swear if you squint just right and everything breaks this way and everyone has career years, we could really challenge for being over .500 for the first non-shortened season since 2009. But let’s be honest, we’re just another year down the road of waiting for Bruce Sherman to sell the team just like we were with Jeffrey Loria and just like we were with Wayne Huizenga.
24. Pittsburgh Pirates: 31.9 percent
Last season: 4.1 percent ↑↑↑
Optimist Smitty: I see us improving and building a foundation toward a brighter future this season. If that foundation isn’t set within two years, it’s back to the drawing board and more of the same, as we’ve sadly been used to in Pittsburgh.
Pessimist Joe: As soon as I clicked that I was a Pirates fan, the box for “No” should have been automatically filled in.
Optimist Zach: Oneil Cruz is an alien and a lot of top prospects should arrive this year. Here come the Bucs.
Pessimist Chris: Lack of optimism: Bob Nutting. Reason to smile at least: Cutch is back.
23. Boston Red Sox: 38.5 percent
Last season: 88 percent ↓↓↓↓
Optimist Bryce: I’m confident this team will be better than 2022, both in personalities and production on the field. Last year felt like a yearlong funeral for the Sox of the 2010s. New blood, young prospects, and fun personalities give me hope for a third-place wild card.
Optimist Brett: I have lived the Sox for 55 years. I vowed if they ever won once I would never complain again. I’m a man of my word. I have season tickets to back it up. It might take another year or so, however they are pointing the right direction. Will surprise this year.
Pessimist Tony: There are 206 bones in the human body, and Chris Sale has broken only 113 of them thus far since signing with the Red Sox. So much opportunity to run the skeletal table.
22. Kansas City Royals: 44.2 percent
Last season: 73.5 percent ↓↓↓
Optimist Cody: The Italian Nightmare; a new 40 steal W(h)it(t); a catcher who decided last year to go on a homer binge rather than meet recovery expectations; a surprisingly good bullpen with much better depth; Franmil Reyes being the first non-Jorge Soler/Salvador Perez player to decide Kauffman is now hitter-friendly as far as he’s concerned; Brady Singer getting Cy votes; and of course the best management/coaching they’ve had at the big league level in a very, very long time.
Pessimist Dylan: If 2014 and 2015 taught me anything; for a team like the Royals to be successful in MLB, everything has to hit at the same time. I’m excited for the future of this team but I don’t think everything is going to hit at the same time this season or the next.
Optimist Tony: Sure, they’ll still be bad but they will be better. That’s optimism, isn’t it?
21. Chicago Cubs: 52.3 percent
Last season: 17.6 percent ↑↑↑
Optimist Matt: I’m generally optimistic as a personality trait, and I’m defining “chances” as a wild-card spot. All I’m really hoping for here is to be relevant enough at the trade deadline to be buying rather than selling (read: in the market for Ohtani should he be available). Told you I was an optimist.
Pessimist Mark: If Seiya Suzuki stays healthy, if Cody Bellinger time travels back to 2019, if Ian Happ has a strong walk year, if Matt Mervis breaks out as a Rookie of the Year candidate, if Nico Hoerner stays healthy and continues to improve offensively, if Dansby Swanson plays up to his contract, if they find a solution for the black hole at third base, if Trey Mancini matches his career-best season, if the starters stay healthy, if the young guys step up and are helped by a more defense-first approach at catcher, and if the Cubs rebuild another bullpen on the fly then they MIGHT be in contention for a wild card spot.
Optimist Jon: Combine savvy free agency spending with good development of the farm system and this team has a big time up-and-coming feel to it. Wild card is probably the ceiling, but should be a heck of a lot better than last year and no longer need to sweat out a teardown and trading away the World Series core.
20. Chicago White Sox: 56.5 percent
Last season: 88.6 percent ↓↓↓
Optimist Mike: Laws of probability.
Optimist Kyle: This team is either going to win 75 games or 95 games.
Pessimist Jason: The White Sox went 81-81 last season, didn’t bring back their only reliable position player (José Abreu) and expect us to believe they can compete for a championship with essentially the same roster that fell flat on its face last year. A new coaching staff can’t fix all the warts. There are major problems with roster construction and ownership that is not committed. I’m not going to be disappointed this time. My expectations are low, and I’m mostly apathetic as the season approaches. The Sox will have to win me back.
Pessimist CP1: Pedro Grifol should make a huge difference on the bench, but injuries are always a concern with this team. It’s hard to be optimistic after last season. “Great on paper” does not equate to winning — again.
19. San Francisco Giants: 59.4 percent
Last season: 84.7 percent ↓↓
Optimist Will: The way the fan base sees it, we had a 2022 verging on the apocalyptic: eye-bleeding defense, monotonous and ineffectual platooning, injury crises, old guys being old, farm system setbacks, and our rivals down south loading up and laying waste to the rest of the division. Despite all that, we finished .500. I’m just here for a regression upwards — and to see Kyle Harrison storm the majors.
Pessimist Mark: Lack of quality depth at infield positions has me most concerned. Farm system is meh at best. Farhan Zaidi trying to manifest injury-free seasons from players who have an injury history seems like the baseball equivalent of WeWork.
Optimist Caleb: I believe in Farhan. I think there was real, legitimate effort in trying to obtain a superstar. When that fell through Plan C, D, E, and F were signed. After the 107-win season, it’s super tough to doubt him and the guys around the front office. I bet we easily get to .500 again and have a chance to surprise for more wins (a lot?) above that.
18. New York Yankees: 71.1 percent
Last season: 48 percent ↑↑
Pessimist Bobby: Everyone gets hurt all the time. It feels like I am re-watching M.A.S.H. without the humor or social commentary.
Optimist Dave: CTRL+C, CTRL+V each year with this team. It’s not the most exciting roster on paper, but you know they’ll be between 90 and 105 wins, beat an AL Central team in the playoffs and have a shot in October. It’s funny how the villain team from “Moneyball” has become synonymous with the theory espoused by Billy Beane that the job of the GM is to get the team to the playoffs and whatever happens once you’re there is just luck. That’s been a tough sell to many Yankee fans considering how much luck this franchise has had once they’ve gotten to the playoffs in past generations.
Pessimist Josh: For the Yankees to reach the World Series, they are relying upon:
5 middle infielders (for two spots),
4 injury-prone starters (CF, RF, 1B and DH)
3 pitchers with arm trouble,
2 bounce back vets (LF and 3B),
and a bullpen built from castoffs.
This can be sung to the 12 Days of Christmas tune if you exclude the parenthetical or simply call this Yankees roster by the numbers.
17. Milwaukee Brewers: 73.3 percent
Last season: 92.2 percent ↓↓
Optimist Charles: Stud starting pitching at the top of the rotation will always give you hope. Just need to make the playoffs and any lineup can get hot.
Optimist Tyler: Last year’s team was the most boring Brewers team of my lifetime, and they weren’t even that bad. They didn’t get eliminated until a game or two left in the season. Hopefully the pitching will stay healthy this year and we might get to see some two-hour Corbin Burnes games.
Pessimist William: The Brewers likely have their best pitching rotation in franchise history, but are otherwise hoping the moves they’ve made at the margins will miraculously change their fate. Last year they traded away an elite bullpen arm and this year they lack bullpen depth. Corner infield has been a problem for years. Oh, and that rotation? They pissed off the ace in arbitration this year to save a half million. They’re 100 percent more likely to trade him out by this time next year than to bring in anyone of consequence. Ownership and a segment of fans like to hide behind a “bites at the apple” analogy, but seem to forget that apples are perishable.
16. Los Angeles Dodgers: 75.6 percent
Last season: 98.1 percent ↓↓
Optimist Scott: It might not be the Dodger team of last year, but the organization has built up enough capital with me that I trust. They find a way.
Pessimist Michael: It’s hard to be optimistic when your team has been soooo good for soooo long and they appeared to have cheaped out during the winter period. They still have some of the greatest ballers in the league, so I wouldn’t bet against them winning the West again though.
Optimist Eddie: While we’ve seen several key players move on in free agency and lost a key young talent in Gavin Lux to injury, I feel confident that our MVP cornerstones in Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts can carry the offense. I also think that our depth in the rotation will be a strength for us this year. The only question I have is the back end of our bullpen. It will be interesting to see who emerges as the go-to option for closing down games. If there’s an early move in the season, I’m betting it’ll be for a closer.
15. Los Angeles Angels: 81.1 percent
Last season: 71.4 percent ↑
Optimist David: Have the two best players on the planet and have finally figured out how to build a bench.
Optimist Mitch: I feel like that Curb Your Enthusiasm meme with the Angels at the end of each year. Send them off with an “eff you” but see you next season with a hole in my heart no matter how foolish. Spring hope is truly eternal.
Optimist Matt: Shohei Ohtani on a contract year. Mike Trout wanting to regain his MVP status. Anthony Rendon trying to regain his career. They finally have a good pitching staff. They finally have depth. Ben Joyce throwing 105. They’ve got everything to play for and a lot to lose.
Pessimist Nick: As the great poet George W. Bush once said: “Fool me once, shame on … shame on you. Fool me twice — can’t get fooled again.” In the case of the Angels, we’re eight times now (and counting).
14. Baltimore Orioles: 85.3 percent
Last season: 6.8 percent ↑↑↑↑↑
Pessimist Mike: When Mike Elias proclaimed “It’s liftoff from here,” I thought he meant a rocket, not the Wright Brothers’ airplane. Very uninspired offseason. If the O’s don’t extend guys like Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, and Gunnar Henderson, those still remaining in the fanbase will begin to rapidly disappear.
Optimist Matt: Even if they don’t make the playoffs, the talent, the personalities, the fun of watching a bunch of youngsters and some cagey veterans try to improve on last year’s magic has me eager to watch as many games as possible this season.
Pessimist Chris: Great young core (as should be expected after a tank job that brutal) but no commitment from front office to fill obvious holes with legit MLB talent. Clearly want to be the Rays, which is unacceptable for any team, and especially one with the history, fan base and stadium Baltimore has. Have also bizarrely refused to extend their young talent like Atlanta, and even the dreaded Tampa, has done.
13. Texas Rangers: 87.7 percent
Last season: 59.5 percent ↑↑↑
Optimist Jeffrey: Before my wedding, one of my groomsmen told my wife, “Look, if your husband has been a loyal, unwavering Texas Rangers fan for the last 30 years, you know he’s going to stay true to you.”
Pessimist Tory: The “What if-isms” have my stomach turning knots. So many pitchers with so much injury baggage. It just makes for a boom or bust season. Don’t get me wrong, I like that they attacked the biggest need we had in starting pitching. I just don’t think it’s enough to make the playoffs.
Optimist Mertzy: Some wildly wild wild-card wildness is in the cards for the Rangers.
Optimist G-Money: A successful season and unsuccessful season have one common Degrominator.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks: 87.8 percent
Last season: 7.5 percent ↑↑↑↑↑
Optimist Nathan: *Joe Pesci voice* the yutes.
Optimist Logan: If Ken Kendrick is willing to give Corbin Carroll nine figures after 32 games, he must be legit.
Optimist Andrew: The Diamondbacks were must-see TV for a lot of the second half last year. Zac Gallen’s franchise-record scoreless inning streak. Corbin Carroll flying around the bases. Alek Thomas robbing home runs. Christian Walker hitting tanks. Their athleticism and effort were a joy to watch, even in a below .500 season. Coming off a 110-loss season, the 2022 Diamondbacks were a breath of fresh air, and there is no reason to think they won’t keep getting better.
11. St. Louis Cardinals: 90.8 percent
Last season: 76.5 percent ↑↑
Optimist Kevin: The trio of Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and (perhaps sooner than later) Jordan Walker will be the best trio we’ve had since Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, and Scott Rolen in 2004-2006.
Pessimist Bryan: They’ll do their normal thing since 2013. Win 90 games, probably win the division, get stuffed into a locker by a better team in the postseason after all the hitting dries up.
Optimist Tyler: I don’t think we currently have the tools to win the World Series, but we have so much depth that I think we will make an impact trade before the deadline that positions us to make a real run. If Jack Flaherty returns to a true ace then we look a lot more like a current contender.
10. Minnesota Twins: 91.3 percent
Last season: 70.1 percent ↑↑
Pessimist Ben: We have signed Carlos Correa long term and have a clear sense that he likes playing with us. We traded for a strong young pitcher and a number of quality prospects. There is every reason to believe that our best minor-league talents will be strong members of a contending core. Which means, in Minnesota, we are doomed to have a plague of injuries, show great resolve to make the playoffs, and then lose every game.
Optimist Luke: The mathematical reality is that I will be hurt again. But, like the Minnesota sports fan that I am, my heart is wide open to the suffering.
Optimist John: Bad karma in 2022 neutralized by good karma in 2023. Buxton plays 140 games and MVP runner-up. I also believe in Santa.
9. Tampa Bay Rays: 91.4 percent
Last season: 91.8 percent ↔
Optimist Steven: The pitching staff is elite. The offense can only go up. We have the greatest of all time (Randy Arozarena) and the best manager in the game.
Optimist Sebastian: I think if we can maintain health, we’re gonna have one of the very best rotations in baseball. I’m banking on another year of experience for last year’s rookie class and some bounce back years from players like Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco. Bullpen is almost always one of the best in ball.
Optimist Roy: An actual starting rotation, with some depth for when one of the five has Tommy John surgery.
8. New York Mets: 95.6 percent
Last season: 94.6 percent ↑
Optimist Anonymous: On the one hand, being optimistic about the Mets is like Charlie Brown being optimistic about the football. On the other hand, all evidence points to this being a very good team, if not necessarily as good as it needs to be to win the World Series. So I guess I will land at 75 percent optimistic and 25 percent waiting for the Mets to Met.
Pessimist Adam: There’s a reason nobody has ever put together a starting rotation as old as this. Health will be our downfall.
Optimist Ben: Optimism on this season — cautiously high
Optimism on signing Soto — waning
Optimism on signing Ohtani — 🤑
7. Seattle Mariners: 96 percent
Last season: 88.5 percent ↑
Optimist Taylor: Two words: Big Dumper. Our expectations are large, our pants tight and our cabooses — voluptuous.
Optimist Robert: We have a golden generation right now. After years of toiling in the wilderness all of our top talent is coming up at the same time. It’s magnificent to see. Dark Jarred Kelenic is going to surprise everyone.
Optimist Quinn: Good young core with veteran leadership and one hell of a rotation. I don’t think enough people across the nation realize how nasty the starting pitching for the Mariners is going to be if healthy all year. And, come on, Julio Rodríguez. It’s like watching The Kid 2.0 for us.
6. Cleveland Guardians: 97.1 percent
Last season: 14 percent ↑↑↑↑↑
Optimist Mike: They won the division and over 90 games last year with the youngest roster in MLB. José Ramírez is here to stay and just about everyone is back. My opinion is they need at least one more elite starting pitcher to be a serious World Series contender, but I absolutely think this is a playoff team again.
Optimist Colton: After the advanced progression of the prospects called up in 2022 and the plethora of top prospects lingering in the top ranks of minor league baseball, Cleveland opened their contention window early with ammunition to swing a major trade if the opportunity arises.
Pessimist Alan: Too many things went right last year. This is Cleveland. The gods always demand payback.
5. Toronto Blue Jays: 97.3 percent
Last season: 99.1 percent ↓
Optimist Grey: Aaron Judge will hurt his back carrying his $300 million, ruining the Yankees season and propelling the Jays to first place.
Optimist Andrew: The team is much better balanced than last year and the bullpen looks better as well. Seems realistic to hope for better years from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. If the rotation stays relatively healthy, and José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi are able to contribute anything, we should be very dangerous.
Optimist Jon: Maybe this is like Star Wars, where the second movie was better than the first (obviously the original trilogy, not episodes 1-3, any one of those would be like being a Boston fan).
4. Atlanta Braves: 98.3 percent
Last season: 99.7 percent ↓
Optimist Joseph: An incredibly deep lineup with All-Stars at nearly every position — two of whom are MVP candidates (Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley), strong rotation with two Cy Young candidates, a bullpen with a legit closer, setup man and great depth, a veteran coaching staff that has already won a World Series, and a general manager who is willing to do anything to win.
Pessimist Michael: The Braves have just lost too much, have a black hole in left field, and are going from borderline Gold Glove play at short to barely a positive WAR if we are lucky. If optimistic means World Series or bust, this year feels like it could be a bust.
Optimist Mark: I think the Braves are positioned for both short- and long-term success, with star players locked up for several seasons to come. Pitching is as good as it’s been since the glory days of the ’90s.
3. Philadelphia Phillies: 98.7 percent
Last season: 84.9 percent ↑↑
Optimist Mike: I’ve been a Phillies fan for nearly 50 years. So much heartbreak. But after last season’s World Series run and the Trea Turner signing, it’s hard to remember when I’ve been more optimistic. It’s a little scary.
Optimist Michael: Coming off of a World Series appearance helps. Just keep Yordan Alvarez as far away as possible.
Optimist Pedro: Everything Dave Dombrowski touches turns to gold (just don’t ask about five years from now).
2. San Diego Padres: 98.8 percent
Last season: 61.8 percent ↑↑↑↑
Optimist Katie: I am going to buy a Peter Seidler jersey.
Optimist Gayle: Money talks, walks, hits, and runs.
Optimist John: After giving the collective bags to Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish and Manny Machado, we’re rumored to be in talks to extend Juan Soto and in aggressive pursuit of Ohtani next offseason. Padres fans just five years ago were trying to get excited about guys like Cory Spangenberg, Carlos Asuaje, Ryan Schimpf and Jabari Blash. It’s a completely revamped roster with investment in the product that is just categorically unfathomable. Given the historical context of the Padres, I don’t think it’s possible to be more hopeful or more excited about any other franchise in any other sport compared to what is happening in San Diego.
1. Houston Astros: 100 percent
Last season: 97.4 percent ↑
Optimist John: RUN. IT. BACK. This is the golden era of Astros baseball, and it would be fitting for the Astros to be the first since 2000 to repeat as World Series champions. Of course, there are some players who have moved on (Justin Verlander, Yuli Gurriel) and questions about health (Lance McCullers Jr., Yordan Alvarez), but the rotation, bullpen, and lineup are as deep as any team in baseball and we have tons of experience to guide us.
Optimist Mark: Everyone hating us doesn’t make us less talented.
Optimist Will: Last year I was quoted in this article saying “The AL runs through Houston, just like it has every year since 2017.” What’s changed?
|
Responses:
|
Replies are disabled on threads older than 7 days.
|
|
