NFL 2023 offseason winners and losers: Aaron Rodgers is happy, but AFC test will be tough
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By Mike Jones
6h ago
With spring conditioning, voluntary practice and mandatory minicamp over, the NFL now has reached the closest thing to a break in what is truly a year-round operation.
The business never completely ceases. A few teams continue to negotiate contract extensions with players. Some organizations are still searching for a few more supporting pieces to the puzzle.
But enough has taken place to give us a pretty good indication of what teams will look like this fall. Things aren’t always as they seem — the games will serve as the truth-tellers. But for now, here’s a look at some of the biggest winners and losers of the 2023 NFL offseason.
Winner: New York Jets
Robert Saleh and company went from a gravely concerning quarterback situation to landing a future Hall of Famer at the position who now makes them must-see TV. The Jets are all-in on their quest for a Super Bowl after their trade with the Green Bay Packers for Aaron Rodgers and the NFL has scheduled them for five prime-time contests plus the inaugural Black Friday game this fall.
Loser: Aaron Rodgers
Yes, he got what he wanted in his exit from Green Bay and reunion with new Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, his former Packers OC. He also gains a more potent cast of wide receivers. But in leaving the NFC for the AFC, he now has a significantly tougher road to the Super Bowl. If beating Jared Goff and the Lions was too tall a task in 2022, what makes Rodgers think he can win a shootout with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson and Tua Tagovailoa? After generally rolling through the NFC North annually, Rodgers will learn that winning a first-round AFC playoff game will be much more challenging — and that’s if Rodgers and the Jets even get out of the AFC East, where the Bills, Patriots and Dolphins all boast tough defenses.
Winner: NFC North teams
It’s a wide-open race to the playoffs for the Vikings, Lions and Bears as the Packers likely take some lumps while Jordan Love acclimates to life as an NFL starter. Minnesota last season won the division for the first time in five years, and Detroit flirted with a playoff berth. Each worked to address key weaknesses this offseason. And don’t sleep on Chicago, which took an aggressive and impressive approach to upgrading on both sides of the ball while continuing the mission of building around Justin Fields. Now is the time to strike with Green Bay forced into reset mode.
Loser: Arizona Cardinals
Firing Kliff Kingsbury was the right move, but hiring Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon to replace him at head coach was a head-scratcher. Even worse: Cardinals star quarterback Kyler Murray spent the offseason rehabbing from knee surgery and his top wide receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, forced the team to release him. That means even less firepower for an already inconsistent offense.
Winner: NFL owners and Amazon
Determined to satisfy Amazon (which pays the league $1 billion a year for broadcast rights), NFL owners this offseason approved flex scheduling for “Thursday Night Football” games, and they also added a Black Friday contest to the slate. The move is designed to ensure those late-season Thursday night Amazon games aren’t duds, as has often been the case. It also means some teams could wind up playing on Thursday night twice this season, up from no more than once in past years.
Loser: NFL players
Players already hated the original Thursday night setup, and questioned how the NFL could declare health and safety a priority when minimal recovery time puts them at greater risk for serious injuries. Now some will have the dreaded short turnaround twice. But as we know, it’s all about the Benjamins for the owners, who will do what’s best for them without thinking twice about it — until one of their franchise players sustains a debilitating, season-threatening injury.
Winner: Quarterbacks
First Jalen Hurts cashed in on his MVP-caliber, Super Bowl runner-up season by inking a five-year, $255 million contract extension. Then Lamar Jackson signed a five-year, $260 million deal to remain in Baltimore. Neither secured a fully guaranteed contract like Watson did in Cleveland last offseason, but Hurts got $179.3 million guaranteed and Jackson $185 million. They earn $52 million (Jackson) and $51 million (Hurts) per year, making them the highest-paid players in the league. Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow say, “Thank you.”
Loser: Running backs
The players at one of the most physically demanding positions continue to get little to no respect. This offseason, running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook were released, saving Dallas and Minnesota roughly $10 million and $9 million, respectively. Meanwhile, the Cowboys opted against giving Tony Pollard a multiyear extension and instead slapped the franchise tag on him. The Raiders did the same with Josh Jacobs, as did the Giants with Saquon Barkley. Pollard signed his franchise tag, which ensures him $10.091 million for 2023. But Barkley and Jacobs have yet to sign their tenders as each remains opposed to the idea of playing with no financial security beyond this season. They have until July 17 to work out contract extensions with their teams.
Winner: Hotshot coordinators
The trend of hiring young coordinators as head coaches continued. Gannon and Texans coach DeMeco Ryans (formerly of the 49ers) have just two seasons of experience as coordinators. Colts coach Shane Steichen has three, with the Eagles and Chargers. But young energy remains highly coveted over experience in a league that now has 13 head coaches younger than 45.
Loser: Coaches of color
The NFL again received poor grades on the diversity head coaching front. Ryans replaced Lovie Smith, so the NFL remains stuck at three Black head coaches despite continued efforts to encourage better representation in a league whose player membership is roughly 70 percent Black. Mike McDaniel (biracial), Ron Rivera (Latino) and Robert Saleh (Lebanese) are the only other coaches of color. Meanwhile, highly qualified coordinators like Eric Bieniemy, Leslie Frazier, Raheem Morris and Byron Leftwich, among others, again failed to receive head coaching opportunities.
Winner: Houston Texans
The Texans haven’t wholeheartedly committed to a head coach for years now (firing Bill O’Brien in-season in 2020, using Romeo Crennel as a placeholder, then firing David Culley and Lovie Smith after just one season each in 2021 and 2022). But now they have Ryans, a former Pro Bowl linebacker for the Texans who is regarded as one of the brightest defensive minds in the game, and two big rookie building blocks in quarterback C.J. Stroud and pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. That’s on top of a smart free agency.
Loser: San Francisco 49ers
They just had a remarkable season despite rampant quarterback injury drama. But the NFC runners-up now have a lot of questions at the most important position. Will Brock Purdy recover from offseason elbow surgery and recapture the magic that saw him go from Mr. Irrelevant to winner of eight straight games (including two in the playoffs)? Is Trey Lance or Sam Darnold the starter if Purdy isn’t ready by Week 1? The Niners also lost Ryans, their talented defensive coordinator, who lured a few standout players with him to Houston.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks
The 49ers have questions at quarterback, but the Seahawks solved theirs and could contend for the NFC West crown. Not only did they retain Geno Smith on a reasonable deal that suits both team and quarterback, they also brought back defensive tone-setter Bobby Wagner and added more young talent to a steadily improving defense. The 2023 draft class also includes impactful offensive players like wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and RB Zach Charbonnet.
Loser: L.A. Rams
They knew lean years were coming: An aggressive pursuit of impactful veterans paved the way for a Super Bowl victory two seasons ago, but it also left the Rams devoid of premium draft picks. They continued to pay this offseason. Creative maneuvering helped Les Snead and Sean McVay draft some promising role players in the mid to late rounds. But not being able to get much for top cornerback Jalen Ramsey in a trade to the Dolphins hurt, as did the frugal approach the team had to take in free agency.
Winner: Russell Wilson
Last season was nothing short of a disaster for the Broncos and the player formerly known as Mr. Unlimited. But the hiring of Sean Payton could benefit Wilson more than almost any other quarterback playing for a new head coach this season. If there’s anyone who knows how to assess the warts in Wilson’s 2022 game and figure out how to get him back to top form, it’s Payton.
Loser: Las Vegas Raiders
They may eventually regret parting with Derek Carr, who brought stability to their quarterback position for nearly a decade. Jimmy Garoppolo knows Josh McDaniels’ system. But can he stay on the field? Trading away Darren Waller also could come back to haunt the Raiders, and if they don’t do right by Jacobs, this offense could again struggle with consistency. But maybe it’s not about this year. Maybe the Raiders, who passed on drafting a quarterback, are all-in on Caleb Williams with the top pick of the 2024 draft.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens
After a lengthy standoff, the Ravens finally came to terms with Lamar Jackson, which ensures they will remain among the top teams in the NFL. Baltimore also added wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted pass catcher Zay Flowers to give Jackson an upgraded supporting cast.
Loser: Buffalo Bills
They still have Josh Allen, and the Bills did make a number of value free-agent signings. But it’s hard to say Buffalo is markedly better than last season. Losing linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and guard Rodger Saffold will hurt, and Stefon Diggs is unhappy. There’s still time to smooth things over with the wide receiver, but with the Bengals still ascending, and the Chiefs still the Chiefs, you can’t help but wonder if Buffalo will ever get over the hump.
Winner: Joe Burrow
Jackson’s payday is good news for Burrow, but so too is that the AFC runners-up continue to invest in their offensive line. Orlando Brown Jr.’s addition gives Burrow, one of the most frequently sacked quarterbacks in the league, a high-quality left tackle. Cincinnati also added talent at key positions on both sides of the ball in the draft as Burrow and company gear up again to try and leapfrog Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Loser: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady’s retirement very well could send the Bucs back into a long wilderness period. Prior to the GOAT’s arrival, the Bucs endured a 12-year playoff drought and largely had a revolving door at quarterback. This is a great opportunity for Baker Mayfield to try to revive his career and show that he’s more of the guy who played well with the Rams late last season than the dude who struggled and got benched and released by the Panthers. Todd Bowles, meanwhile, has even more pressure on his shoulders after last year’s struggles and early playoff exit.
Winner: NFC South teams
No Brady means the division is wide open. The Saints scored with the Derek Carr acquisition, and they are hopeful that Michael Thomas will regain health and Pro Bowl form this year. The Panthers have a really good chance to compete in the division as well after the hiring of Frank Reich, a strong free agency and the drafting of Bryce Young. The Falcons remain in rebuilding mode, but depending on how things go in Tampa, they might not be relegated to the basement.
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