ST Alpha - "Don't expect a Putin replacement to be "better" than Putin. They might pull out of Ukraine, but only to try to keep Russia stable " (Reading a Post)

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Don't expect a Putin replacement to be "better" than Putin. They might pull out of Ukraine, but only to try to keep Russia stable

Posted by TWuG Jun 23 '23, 15:56

And that'll likely lead to pogroms and other atrocities within Russian borders. A nuke capable nation under that stress is not going to be any better than what we have now.

Containing that mess to Russia is going to be hard. And some neighbors will attempt to exploit the unrest. China might decide it wants bordering areas. Other countries that have relied on security from Russia may end up in conflict with neighbors.

Responses:

It's reallllly premature to expect Putin to be replaced, to put it lightly. -- nm - Reagen Jun 23, 16:14 2
- Oh, for sure. But a coup doesn't make things better. Maybe not a lot worse, but not better. -- nm - TWuG Jun 23, 16:17
- He could still die of cancer any day, according to some reports. -- nm - Beryllium Jun 23, 16:17
Where do you see those conflicts? Going through the countries that rely on Russia for security… - Roger More Jun 23, 16:10 3
- Those three midafrican ones you mentioned might want to cozy up to china instead of europe -- nm - Beryllium Jun 23, 16:13 2
  - China probably won’t put boots on the ground, while both Russia and Europe would be prepared to. -- nm - Roger More Jun 23, 16:32 1
    - (But what do I know, when you really get down to it?) -- nm - Roger More Jun 23, 16:34
Wouldn’t keeping Russia stable be a good thing? -- nm - mara Jun 23, 16:07 3
- Yes, but a coup won't achieve that. At least not if the Wagner aligned pols end up in charge. - TWuG Jun 23, 16:21
- I mean there are millions of people there who might be better off? I’d like them to be okay, overall. -- nm - mara Jun 23, 16:10 1
  - i think you want it just stable enough, but not so much that Putin remains in power -- nm - hollywood big shot Jun 23, 16:13
unclear that there would even be a replacement as such of Putin were deposed -- nm - hollywood big shot Jun 23, 16:03
Oh what are they called? Not vassals. In Civ they are called something else. -- nm - Jovian Jun 23, 15:59 1
- Suzerain? -- nm - Ender Jun 23, 16:17
Russia took itself off the board. China's what matters now. -- nm - David Jun 23, 15:58

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Don't expect a Putin replacement to be "better" than Putin. They might pull out of Ukraine, but only to try to keep Russia stable

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