NHL trade grades: Avalanche acquire Ryan Johansen from the Predators, filling need for a 2C
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By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman and Eric Duhatschek
The trade
Avalanche get: Ryan Johansen (50 percent of $8 million average annual value retained by Nashville).
Predators get: Alex Galchenyuk
Gentille: At some point, the Avalanche were going to have to replace Nazem Kadri. Ideally, it would’ve happened last season. That didn’t happen, and the problem was exacerbated by this summer’s weak unrestricted-free-agent class. Ironically, J.T. Compher, their erstwhile Kadri replacement, might be the best open-market option for teams in search of center options. He wasn’t bad for the Avs — he’d still look great as the team’s 3C behind Nathan MacKinnon and Johansen — but even with a career year, he wasn’t good enough to be 2C on a top contender. General manager Chris MacFarland’s predicament was clear.
So, too, is the solid work he did with this move. Johansen, despite turning 31 this summer and coming off a failed attempt at following up his bounceback 2021-22 season, is still better on paper than any UFA 2C option. The salary retention, which drops his cost for the Avs down to $4 million in each of the next two seasons, makes it an even bigger no-brainer.
Now, is Johansen a perfect fit? Not quite. Those 26 goals in 2021-22 may well be a blip mixed in with five years of decline, and the idea of signing on for him at an $8 million AAV would’ve been — or should’ve been — a no-go. Still, he has size, some play-driving ability and enough goal-scoring to make the appeal obvious. When decent players like Johansen are overpaid as drastically as he was in Nashville, it nukes their value. In Denver, he won’t be overpaid. The Avalanche have money to spend and a pressing need for goals to fill, especially with Gabriel Landeskog’s pending season-long absence. It’s simple enough.
On the Preds’ end, if this move was the only alternative to buying Johansen out, it was a win for them, too. Based on the return — the negotiation rights to Galchenyuk — that’s a fair assumption. Now they get out from under his deal in two years (and $8 million paid) rather than four years and about $10 million. Trades where one team has to eat money and gets nearly nothing in return are rarely palatable for a fan base, but Preds supporters should be satisfied that GM Barry Trotz seems set to move the franchise into its next phase. Given the number of players that’d love to play in Nashville, any cap space is valuable.
Avalanche grade: A
Predators grade: B+
Duhatschek: There are a few basic truths about the Johansen-for-Galchenyuk deal that got the draft-week NHL trading game started Saturday morning, beginning with the fact that Johansen was completely untradeable at $8 million per season. The fact that the Predators had to absorb half the contract for two remaining seasons is proof of how low Johansen’s value had slipped around the NHL. At $4 million per season, on the other hand, Johansen is a defensible risk for the Avalanche for the next two years.
But it is still that: a risk.
Until training camp starts, the season gets underway and Johansen has a chance to settle in, the Avalanche won’t know which version of him they’re getting. Because there have been many variants, beginning with his time at the start of his career in Columbus, after he was the fourth pick of the 2010 draft. He evolved into, if not a true No. 1 center, then a legitimate high-end No. 2. The Predators thought enough of him in the midst of the 2015-16 season that they traded a young and up-and-coming blueliner Seth Jones to get him.
Johansen’s results in Nashville were decidedly mixed. His 50-assist season in 2019 was the zenith. There was another disappointing two-year dip the next two, followed by a brief 63-point resurgence in 2021-22. He then fell off again in 2022-23, with 28 points in 55 games, another season where he couldn’t stay healthy.
At age 30, he’s become a complementary piece rather than a player who can drive play on his own. Colorado clearly believes he can be more than that again. One of the Avalanche’s biggest failings this past season was center-ice production behind MacKinnon, never quite getting anyone to fill the void created by the departure of Kadri to Calgary.
Can Johansen do that?
He’s a better playmaker than a finisher, and if the Avalanche persist in playing MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen apart, Johansen could theoretically get a chance to play with one of the most productive scorers in the NHL — a 55-goal scorer last season.
But he has to be a better, healthier, more committed version of the player that Nashville saw fit to trade for 50 cents on the dollar.
And even though this was framed as a trade for Galchenyuk, that’s a smokescreen. Galchenyuk, 29, is on an expiring contract at a league minimum of $750,000. He’s UFA on July 1. It’s hard to imagine how much interest there will be after the year he had: zero points in 11 NHL games and 42 points in 42 AHL games. Maybe Anaheim, where his minor-league coach, Greg Cronin, is now the head coach, would take the chance.
If this also means the end of Compher with the Avalanche, you could convincingly argue that Johansen is a downgrade, not an upgrade.
Compher had 52 points in 82 games for the Avs last season and averaged 20:32 in ice time. To put Compher’s usage in context, he ranked 14th in time on ice among forwards, ahead of — among others — Auston Matthews, Matthew Tkachuk and Kyle Connor, as well as Avalanche teammates Artturi Lehkonen and Val Nichushkin. In short, he was a quiet but important contributor for the Avs and will be hard to replace if he’s priced himself out of the market.
Compher is a pending UFA in a thin crop of UFA centers. In Nashville, meanwhile, Johansen averaged 15:46 — not the sort of ice time you’d associate with a top-six forward.
Still, sometimes, the weight of a contract affects a player’s confidence. Johansen was never going to justify an $8 million annual paycheck at this stage of his career. At $4 million, he’s more fairly priced.
Maybe that allows him to play more freely, and if so, get his game back on track. For a long time, he’s looked like a player who needed a fresh start. He’s only 30. There’s time.
Avalanche grade: C
Predators grade: C
Goldman: Colorado has needed help down the middle since Kadri departed as a free agent last summer. It seemed like the plan last year was to see how the high-end top-six wingers could balance out a more inexpensive option down the middle of that line. A season-long injury to Landeskog, which is going to hold him out of next season too, put a damper on that experiment.
So it’s something the Avalanche had to address this offseason, especially with Compher’s contract expiring in a few days. Colorado still has Alex Newhook (who is also in for a raise this summer, but as a restricted free agent), but they still needed another middle-six pivot. That’s where Johansen comes in.
There’s no question that Johansen has been trending in the wrong direction for some time, and his 2021-22 bounceback seemed like more of an outlier than an encouraging sign moving forward. His lackluster 2022-23 season can’t be entirely attributed to roster issues around him or coaching; it’s on him as well. A team with as much star power as Colorado, and some really smart coaching in Jared Bednar, may be able to maximize what’s left of his game a bit better. Betting on that at $4 million dollars also isn’t a major risk — a cost that could be manageable on the third line if he can’t shake it as the 2C. Considering the free agent class this year and other trade options likely costing more than the rights to Galchenyuk, which is literally nothing, this is a fine move.
On the flip side, the Predators bought themselves some cap space and flexibility. This does take away a retention slot for another two years, bringing Nashville down to one, but that should be OK for Trotz, considering who is left on the roster and likely to be flipped. Did Nashville have to make this deal? If the plan is to have a long-haul rebuild, it really wasn’t necessary because the Predators could have dealt with Johansen being on the roster. But if they want a shot of being competitive while their core three — Roman Josi, Juuse Saros and Filip Forsberg — are in their better years, this has to be a quicker process. So cap space is key, and figuring out who is a part of the future sooner than later will obviously help in the roster construction process.
Avalanche grade: B+
Predators grade: B
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