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Pure speculation about the Russia situation on my part, but... -- (edited)

Posted by znufrii Jun 25 '23, 08:40

Would Prigozhin's "exile" to Belarus actually be a cover for him raising a strike force from there to attack Ukraine (perhaps drawing Belarus into the conflict officially, under some new pretext) and make another bid to capture Kyiv from the north, while Ukraine is focused on its counteroffensive to the east and south?

Responses:

Any amassing of forces in Belarus would be immediately detected so there’d be no element of surprise. -- nm - Mop Jun 25, 09:00 1
- Not sure surprise would be necessary, all they would need to do is draw focus away, to allow Russia to consolidate its position -- (edited) - znufrii Jun 25, 09:10
Why would he bother with pretext, if he could do it? - Reagen Jun 25, 08:58 3
- I'd imagine the Belarusian people would be none to pleased to go to war in Ukraine without a good (albeit blatantly manufactured) reason. -- nm* - znufrii Jun 25, 09:08 1
  - Yes, they have a lot of say in this. -- nm - Reagen Jun 25, 10:00
- "The tl;dr is we’re going to have to keep watching the front lines in Ukraine and upper-story windows in Moscow and Minsk for clues" -- (link) - mud Jun 25, 09:01
is Lukashenko in on this plot? -- nm - mud Jun 25, 08:56 2
- He'd have to be. -- nm - znufrii Jun 25, 08:56 1
  - I'd say all three of them right now are just frightened little motards who don't know what they're doing one day to the next. -- nm - mud Jun 25, 09:16
Don’t think Putin is capable of clear strategic thinking right now. I think it may be more likely than not, that this heralds the end of the war. - Loyola Jun 25, 08:54 3
- Wouldn't need to be Putin's idea, necessarily. -- nm - znufrii Jun 25, 09:12
- A real leader would have brilliant strategic minds on hand to help with that. - Beryllium Jun 25, 09:05 1
  - You’re right, dictators have an image of infallibility to maintain. - Loyola Jun 25, 09:15
China expresses support for Russia and its stability. Foreign Ministry calls Wagner chief uprising “Russia’s internal affair.” -- (link) - budice Jun 25, 08:44

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Pure speculation about the Russia situation on my part, but... -- (edited)

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