NHL offseason goalie market: Ranking top trade targets, team needs and best free agents
-- (edited)
|
By Harman Dayal and Jesse Granger
8h ago
This summer’s NHL goalie market is one of the most intriguing that we’ve seen in a long time.
There are big names that will be available on the trade market and some high-leverage decisions that could make or break contenders’ playoff chances next season. Surrounding those big storylines is the question of whether teams’ game theory for addressing goaltending needs could evolve with the way Vegas won its Cup, which has shined a spotlight on how much a team’s defensive play can influence a goalie’s success or failure.
Unless you have a rare top-five goalie in the league, do you need two talented puck-stoppers in a balanced 1A/1B tandem rather than the traditional workhorse starter and sparsely used backup setup? Will teams be gun-shy to pay big prices for starters in terms of acquisition cost on the trade market and contracts-wise in free agency?
It feels like goaltending has never been more unpredictable in recent memory. That variability means some teams will find unbelievable steals (like Vegas acquiring Adin Hill for a fourth-round pick, or Minnesota trading Cam Talbot for Filip Gustavsson, with the latter posting Vezina-like numbers) while other clubs will step on landmines (like Edmonton with Jack Campbell last summer).
Here’s a look into the state of the NHL’s goaltending market, with a look at each team’s depth chart, top needs, trade candidates and free agents.
Laying out each team’s current positioning feels like a good place to start. Here’s a look at the potential NHL-caliber goaltenders every team has under contract or control as an RFA for next season. Cells shaded in red represent positions where the team might be looking for an upgrade, and cells shaded in blue represent RFAs who need new contracts.
Let’s categorize some of the teams with clear netminding needs.
Shopping for a starter/1A goaltender
Pittsburgh Penguins: The Penguins have a critical decision to make on Tristan Jarry. The 28-year-old pending UFA has the talent to be an upper-echelon starter in the NHL but he doesn’t have a proven playoff track record — he was awful against the Islanders in 2021 and was hurt for nearly the entire first-round series against the Rangers — and he isn’t reliable health wise as this season proved.
Pittsburgh has the cap space to re-sign Jarry if it wants, but has he shown enough consistency to convince the club he’s worth a long-term deal? Kyle Dubas could try to find a more economical target and use that money to address other needs on the backend and bottom six.
Dubas’ goaltending decision could make or break the Penguins’ chance of making one last run next season.
Los Angeles Kings: L.A.’s goaltending fell apart last season when Cal Petersen and Jonathan Quick both struggled mightily.
Pheonix Copley, a minor league and NHL tweener, unexpectedly swooped in and saved the Kings’ season, with a 24-6-3 record. Joonas Korpisalo was acquired at the deadline and played excellent down the stretch but he was inconsistent in the club’s first-round loss to Edmonton. Copley is the team’s only veteran goalie signed for next season so there’s a clear need for a starter.
Limited cap space could prevent them from being realistic destinations for some of the top available names. Last week, we estimated the Kings to have around $400,000 in room to play with after they re-sign their RFAs. Trading Sean Durzi and his $1.7 million cap hit helps, and they can shed wingers like Alex Iafallo or Viktor Arvidsson, but the point is that the financial picture is tight and could require creativity. L.A.’s budget to hunt for a goalie could be squeezed further if the club ends up acquiring Pierre-Luc Dubois.
Buffalo Sabres: Buffalo looks like it’s one top-four defender and a quality goaltender away from doing some damage in the Eastern Conference. The Sabres are flush with tons of assets and cap space to upgrade both positions, but will they splurge more on a defender or a goalie?
Devon Levi, a 21-year-old elite netminding prospect from the NCAA, showed well during NHL games down the stretch. He looks like the goalie of the future and should be an important part of next year’s tandem, but he’s young and unproven, which means you don’t want to pencil him in as the 1A option next season.
New Jersey Devils: Vitek Vanecek was sturdy as New Jersey’s starter in the regular season, but he stumbled in the playoffs, which was the main concern for a goalie that still only has 10 games of playoff experience with some ugly numbers. 23-year-old Akira Schmid emerged as a promising talent in 2022-23, notching a .923 save percentage in 18 games, and taking the reins from Vanecek in the postseason.
Neither Vanecek nor Schmid inspires confidence (yet) as the type of goalie that can take a team on a long playoff run. New Jersey’s shown interest in Connor Hellebuyck, but the price of his next contract could be prohibitive.
Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina is basically a mirror of the platoon goaltending setup Vegas won with this spring. The Canes have an elite defensive structure that helps their goalies, meaning they don’t need to invest a lot of money between the pipes in order to keep pucks out of their net. Carolina did a clever job of locking up Pyotr Kochetkov, a talented 24-year-old goalie, to a four-year, $2 million AAV extension. Kochetkov will be part of Carolina’s platoon, but he’s waiver exempt for one more season, and colleague Pierre LeBrun has reported that the Canes are trying to re-sign Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta.
Winnipeg Jets: Hellebuyck’s days in Winnipeg are numbered and the club doesn’t have any other goaltending talent readily available, as backup David Rittich is a pending UFA.
Despite the anticipated firesale in Winnipeg, management is still expected to try and push for the playoffs next season. It sounds like a far-fetched strategy, but if competitiveness next season is a priority, they’ll need to basically build an above-average tandem from scratch. They’ll have plenty of assets and cap space to make a splash once they deal some of their core players, and they could also target a young netminder like Schmid or Luukkonen if one of New Jersey or Buffalo respectively ends up being the final destination for Hellebuyck.
Shopping for a tandem 1B netminder
Ottawa Senators: Trading Gustavsson for Talbot last July didn’t work out in the slightest for Pierre Dorion. The hope was Talbot’s steady veteran presence would help a developing young team take the next step to the playoffs, but he posted a sub-.900 save percentage and the Senators fell six points shy of the final playoff spot. Meanwhile, Gustavsson put up elite numbers in Minnesota.
With Talbot entering free agency the Senators are left with only Anton Forsberg in the crease. He expects a regular summer training schedule and to be ready for camp after suffering scary injuries to both MCLs in February. Still, if Dorion wanted Talbot as insurance heading into last year he almost certainly will want another experienced goalie to pair with Forsberg after that scare.
Detroit Red Wings: Goaltending has been an issue for some time in Detroit. Of the Red Wings’ three goalies last season — Ville Husso, Alex Nedeljkovic and Magnus Hellberg — none recorded a save percentage above .900 or a positive goals saved above expected. With both Nedeljkovic and Hellberg’s contracts expiring it leaves GM Steve Yzerman with a decision of who to pair with Husso for the upcoming season.
Husso still has two years left on his deal with a $4.75 million cap hit per year. Bringing Hellberg back is an option, but it seems more likely Detroit will explore the market for an upgrade. That could be in the form of a big swing like a trade for Hellebuyck, or something smaller like looking at names such as Andersen, Varlamov or Laurent Brossoit in free agency.
San Jose Sharks: The Sharks may have had the worst team save percentage in the NHL last season (.881) but there’s plenty of reason for optimism for their goaltending future. Veteran James Reimer will be leaving as a UFA, and while Kaapo Kähkönen had inconsistencies last season he improved as the year went on. Not only was Kähkönen playing behind one of the worst defenses in hockey, but he was also being asked to make major changes to his game by goaltending coach Thomas Speer. As the season went on he adjusted to those changes and was strong after the All-Star break.
Behind Kähkönen San Jose has several young promising netminders, headlined by Denver University product Magnus Chrona. The 6-foot-5 Chrona had a stellar collegiate career, winning a National Championship. It’s unlikely he’ll be NHL-ready right out of the gate, but it might not take him long to get there. The Sharks also have 24-year-old Eetu Makiniemi, who got a taste of NHL action last season, and Strauss Mann, who backstopped the U.S. Olympic team in the 2022 Beijing Olympics.
New York Islanders: Last season the Islanders had one of the strongest tandems in the league. Varlamov is set to hit unrestricted free agency, and could be one of the best goalies available. If the Islanders can bring him back they’ll once again be rock solid in net. If not, add them to the list of teams potentially looking for a 1B.
Shopping for a backup
Tampa Bay Lightning: Brian Elliott has been Tampa Bay’s backup for the last two seasons. The 38-year-old’s numbers have slipped, however, and he’s a pending UFA. In a perfect world, the Lightning would find a No. 2 who could ease Andrei Vasilevskiy’s workload considering the sheer volume of starts he’s had since the 2020 bubble between the regular season and playoffs, but Tampa Bay is pressed up against the cap so that’s probably not realistic.
New York Rangers: Jaroslav Halak was solid as the Rangers’ backup last season. Will the 38-year-0ld pending UFA re-sign for another year in New York? The Rangers have Louis Domingue locked up on a one-way contract so he could be a backup contender too, but he’s spent most of the last two seasons in the minors.
Seattle Kraken: Chris Driedger missed a large chunk of the season because of an ACL injury and was subpar the season before. He has one year left at a $3.5 million cap hit, which means the Kraken would ideally find a way to move on from his contract, whether it’s via trade or buyout. Joey Daccord, a 26-year-old pending UFA who was sensational during the Seattle farm team’s Calder Cup Finals run, would be a sensible option to consider re-signing as a backup.
Which goalies should be available on the trade and UFA market?
This year’s class of goalie free agents may not be the strongest, but there are plenty of good options potentially available on the trade market. Hellebuyck obviously headlines this group, as he’s proven to be consistently elite throughout his career right up to this past season where he carried a Jets team with plenty of deficiencies to the postseason.
Hellebuyck stopped 30.8 goals above expected according to MoneyPuck this year, fourth-most in the NHL. He has ranked inside the top-10 in that stat each of the past four years, and led the league in back-to-back seasons in 2019-20 and 2020-21. He has only one year left on his current deal, and should be in line for one of the biggest goalie contracts in the league. That could scare some teams off, but there’s no doubt that anyone acquiring Hellebuyck is adding an elite goalie.
There are two more goalies with stellar track records who could be available via trade this summer — Linus Ullmark and John Gibson — but each comes with a different cause for concern.
The trade whispers surrounding Ullmark certainly haven’t been as loud as the ones swirling around Hellebuyck, but the 2023 Vezina Trophy winner expressed some concern of a move from Boston this week in Nashville. He’s coming off the best season of his life, and one of the best by a goalie in recent history. He led the NHL by nearly every statistical measure, but did it playing behind a sensational team. The concern is: Jeremy Swayman’s numbers were also fantastic behind that same team. Watching the games it’s clear Ullmark was individually great this year, and made his defense look good as often as they propped him up. Still, there must be some question of how elite he can be behind a different defense and system.
The reasons for concern with Gibson are nearly the opposite. He has a long resume of high-level goaltending, but it’s been a while since we’ve seen it. The soon-to-be 30-year-old hasn’t posted a save percentage north of .904 in four years. His stats have plummeted largely because he’s playing behind an abysmal Ducks team. Gibson’s techniques have slipped lately. He’s challenged too aggressively at times, opening himself up for lateral passes. There’s an argument he’s picked up those bad habits out of necessity, needing to stand on his head on a nightly basis to give his team a chance to win. There are still plenty who believe he can return to a high level, but with four years left on his contract is a GM willing to take that risk in a trade?
The Flyers could be heading for a full rebuild, and if that means trading Carter Hart it adds another intriguing name to this list. Hart is only 24 years old, and had a nice bounce-back season in 2022-23. A lot of things went wrong for Philadelphia last year, but Hart wasn’t one of them. Most young goalies go through spells of inconsistency. The difference is those usually happen in the minors, out of the spotlight. Hart has gone through his growing pains on the biggest stage, but still has the potential to be a franchise goalie.
The Flames could look to move Dan Vladař to clear the way for highly-touted goalie prospect Dustin Wolf to get NHL action. Vladař is coming off a down year (.894 save percentage) but at only 25 with two years left on his contract at a reasonable $2.2 million cap hit, he’d be an attractive piece for teams looking to add a 1B to their goalie rotation.
With the emergence of 22-year-old Schmid behind Vaněček, the Devils could be looking to deal pending restricted free agent Mackenzie Blackwood. How much value he’ll have is the question. Since his fantastic rookie season in 2019-20, Blackwood has struggled. He was the clear third-best goalie in New Jersey this season.
Would Kyle Dubas dare bring Matt Murray back to Pittsburgh after how things unfolded in Toronto last season? If he did, the Penguins would likely get a sweetener for helping Toronto unload Murray’s $4.69 million cap hit. A deal with a former GM seems odd, but adding future assets would help jumpstart a potential rebuild in Pittsburgh and open cap space for the Leafs.
Coming off a Stanley Cup win and a third-place finish in Conn Smythe voting, Hill would headline this class of free-agent goalies if he makes it to July 1. However, that seems unlikely as the 27-year-old is reportedly closing in on an extension with Vegas.
From there, we have a group of goalies coming off strong seasons that could be viewed as starters, or at least part of a starting rotation, which seems to be the direction most teams are heading. Korpisalo played well behind a strong L.A. defense after the trade deadline, and if the Kings don’t keep him would be an attractive option for teams looking for a 1B, as would Varlamov (who’s shown the ability to thrive in that role for years), Jarry and Andersen.
It will be interesting to see how many of the goalies potentially on the trade block end up getting moved, as that could have a major impact on the value of the goalies in this group. The teams looking to add a starter that miss out on the biggest trade targets could immediately shift their focus to one of these goalies.
If they’re looking for a steadying presence without a ton of upside but a high floor, Varlamov is the guy. He’s an ideal 1B for a team looking to run a rotation or lighten the load on their primary starter.
After that, most of the UFA options in net are likely backup-level goalies, with a few that have the potential to outplay that. Alex Lyon could be a steal if he lands in the right situation. He stumbled for the Panthers in the playoffs, but was excellent down the stretch of the regular season and has played well at every level the last couple of seasons. He’s never going to be a workhorse 1A, but Lyon’s strong reads, sound positioning and quick feet make him a good option for teams looking for a bargain.
Overall there are plenty of options for goalie-needy teams entering the offseason. Whether they are looking to break the bank for a Vezina candidate, find a solid rotational option or a backup with upside, there’s a bit of everything available. This free-agent class combined with the sizzling big-name trade targets could make this summer’s goalie carousel one to remember.
|
Responses:
|
Replies are disabled on threads older than 7 days.
|
|
