NYT: Hurricane Lee Is a Category 3 Storm, and Its Eventual Path Is Still Unclear -- (edited)
Posted by
mud
Sep 10 '23, 17:15
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The Atlantic hurricane is expected to remain a powerful storm through the week.
By Judson Jones
Judson Jones is a meteorologist and reporter for The Times.
Sept. 10, 2023, 7:11 p.m. ET
Hurricane Lee formed almost a week ago, rapidly intensifying as it moved westward across the open waters of the Atlantic.
It is easy to look at a map showing a major hurricane with a forecast path pointed directly at the United States and think the East Coast is in for it. But as of Sunday night, such an outcome was not the most probable.
Lee’s arrival isn’t expected until later this week or the beginning of the next, which is beyond the official forecast from the experts at the National Hurricane Center. They have warned against speculating on the potential outcome because too many factors are still at play.
Here’s what we know about the hurricane:
What is Lee’s current location and path?
As of 5 p.m. on Sunday, Hurricane Lee was about 285 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, which are in the northeastern Caribbean, and the storm was moving west-northwest at 8 miles per hour, the Hurricane Center said.
Lee had maximum sustained winds of 120 m.p.h., making it a Category 3 storm. Some strengthening is expected Sunday night into Monday, the Hurricane Center said.
Lee currently does not threaten any land, and there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. However, dangerous surf conditions generated by the storm are expected to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas and Bermuda through much of this week, the Hurricane Center said.
As Lee grows in size, these dangerous surf and rip currents are also expected along most of the U.S. East Coast, starting first in the Southeast and spreading northward over the next couple of days.
Meteorologists are fairly confident that Lee will stay north of the Caribbean. Several forecast models suggested the storm would veer north, but the possibility and timing remained unclear, as was any threat posed to the United States.
Why is Lee’s path so complicated?
Storms like to move along the path of least resistance. That path is typically toward low pressure. A high-pressure system is expected to build to the northwest of the storm and slow Lee’s western movement to almost a common walking pace.
Such unknowns complicate the forecast: How long does the storm keep moving west, and how slow does it get? Lee will be pushing against a wall of high pressure, waiting for the weather pattern to shift.
The expected slow movement of the storm is the main reason forecasters have repeatedly said that “it remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada or Bermuda late next week.”
The most likely outcome is that the pattern will begin to break down and the storm will be allowed to turn north.
How big is this storm going to get?
Lee intensified rapidly on Sept. 7, with its wind speeds doubling to 160 m.p.h. The storm has seen fluctuations in intensity over the weekend, dropping to a Category 2 storm earlier on Sunday.
Lee is forecast to regain Category 4 status on Sunday night or early on Monday and also to grow in size. The storm should plateau in strength through midweek before weakening again.
What are the chances it will hit the U.S. East Coast?
There is still some chance, but it is currently not the most likely outcome. Lee might also hit Canada or stay farther east and move across Bermuda. As of now, the models indicate that a landfall in Canada is quite possible, even though it is still too early to tell for certain or to make any plans.
What is the timing of the hurricane?
The most likely development is that the storm will remain in the Atlantic, likely somewhere between the East Coast and Bermuda by Friday.
Any landfall in the United States or Canada could happen over the weekend.
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