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In response to
"Anyone with an ESPN+ account, can you c&p this? -- (link)"
by
Will Hunting
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here
Posted by
Remlik (aka Remlik)
Sep 13 '23, 08:42
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Last year I started what will probably be a yearly tradition of ranking MLB teams by their core of talent. The idea is to include only players under contractual control through at least 2025. Age isn't a factor, but I'll round up on projecting young players (and vice versa on older players) as I'm projecting/ranking teams for this two-plus-year time frame.
To make it easier to see which team has more talent when comparing them, I split players into three tiers: elite (5+ WAR talent, or MVP candidates), above average (3-5 WAR types) and solid (1.5-3 WAR, or lower-end starters and valuable role players). I opted to include players who have easy-to-hit vesting options or club/player options that are likely to be picked up, but I left out players with likely-to-be-exercised opt-outs. There's some subjectivity in this area; I call out any star players who don't qualify below. The top nine prospects in the sport qualified as the only "above average" tier players with no major league service time (see that whole updated list here).
Players are listed in order of my preference within each tier, so you can easily argue for a player who's on the top/bottom of a tier to move up or down. And the overall ranking isn't coming from an algorithm judging the teams or their numbers of players in each tier -- I'm still comparing each list one by one.
1. Atlanta Braves
Last year's core rank: 1
Elite: Ronald Acuna Jr./RF, Spencer Strider/RHS, Matt Olson/1B, Austin Riley/3B, Sean Murphy/C
Above average: Ozzie Albies/2B, Michael Harris II/CF, Raisel Iglesias/RHR
Solid: Orlando Arcia/SS, Travis d'Arnaud/C, Bryce Elder/RHS, Kyle Wright/RHS, A.J. Smith-Shawver/RHS, Hurston Waldrep/RHS, Nicky Lopez/2B, Vaughn Grissom/SS, Ian Anderson/RHS, Nick Anderson/RHR, Huascar Ynoa/RHS
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I intentionally kept a hard line for what defined an "elite" player throughout this process, and it ended up that there were 26 total. That means the Braves, who have five, have 19% of the sport's such players under multiple years of control. The thing that helps the Braves (and most of the top five teams in this ranking) stand out is how quickly and effectively they identify players who fit their model -- and move to acquire them and get them acclimated and in the big leagues so quickly. Strider and Harris were fourth- and third-round picks respectively, but were among the first to the big leagues of their draft cohort -- and they've stuck there. Letting Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson leave via free agency was a tough decision for GM Alex Anthopoulos, but look at their replacements: Olson is younger and will get MVP votes this year, while Arcia, essentially left on the scrap heap, is about to turn in a 3-win season for $7.3 million -- and that's the cost through 2025. Keep an eye on Waldrep, the Braves' first-round pick in July, to potentially get a look this fall as a dangerous weapon out of the bullpen with his mesmerizing knuckle splitter.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Last year's core rank: 3
Elite: Mookie Betts/RF, Freddie Freeman/1B
Above average: Will Smith/C, Tony Gonsolin/RHS, Walker Buehler/RHS
Solid: Gavin Lux/2B, Chris Taylor/LF, Blake Treinen/RHR, Dustin May/RHS, Brusdar Graterol/RHR, Evan Phillips/RHR, Miguel Vargas/3B, Diego Cartaya/C, Bobby Miller/RHS, Gavin Stone/RHS, Michael Busch/1B, Andy Pages/RF, Ryan Pepiot/RHS
The Dodgers have long been the en vogue reference of a model franchise, and they continue to earn that label. For a long time, GM Andrew Friedman avoided nine-figure deals, then he handed two out in two years to players now in their 30s ... but Betts and Freeman are now literally first and second in baseball in WAR, so it seems like Friedman picked well. Miller and Outman emerged as rookies to quickly become core players, Lux should return next season, and youngsters like Rushing, Sheehan, Frasso, Busch, and Hurt all still could be new key pieces to this puzzle. And of course, Friedman might hand out one more nine-figure free agent contract next season: Shohei Ohtani.
3. Seattle Mariners
Last year's core rank: 10
Elite: Julio Rodriguez/CF
Above average: George Kirby/RHS, Logan Gilbert/RHS, Cal Raleigh/C, Luis Castillo/RHS, J.P. Crawford/SS
Solid: Bryan Woo/RHS, Eugenio Suarez/3B, Bryce Miller/RHS, Andres Munoz/RHR, Cole Young/SS, Jarred Kelenic/LF, Harry Ford/C, Ty France/1B, Matt Brash/RHR, Emerson Hancock/RHS, Justin Topa/RHR, Robbie Ray/LHS, Jose Caballero/2B, Josh Rojas/3B, Dylan Moore/2B, Jonatan Clase/CF, Gabe Speier/LHR
The Mariners kick off three straight AL West clubs in these rankings -- all potential playoff teams this season, too. Seattle has shown real organizational competency by replenishing its farm system quickly after some go-for-it trades thinned things out a bit. Losing Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo and Cole Phillips in the Luis Castillo trade hurt, but picking up Cole Young and Colt Emerson in the past two drafts has already filled in the "top prospects playing shortstop" hole internally. The other organizational competency is turning good prospects in the upper minors into good big leaguers early in their career, similar to Atlanta. Rodriguez had chase rate and center-field defensive questions that were both solved quickly; Kirby and Gilbert both took solid average stuff and good command and became trusted playoff starters. Even J.P. Crawford has turned into a 4-win player by leaning into a power-and-patience skill set that he hadn't embraced before.
4. Texas Rangers
Last year's core rank: 14
Elite: Corey Seager/SS, Marcus Semien/2B
Above average: Jacob deGrom/RHS, Adolis Garcia/RF, Josh Jung/3B, Wyatt Langford/LF, Jonah Heim/C, Nathaniel Lowe/1B
Solid: Evan Carter/CF, Jon Gray/RHS, Leodys Taveras/CF, Ezequiel Duran/3B, Dane Dunning/RHS, Jonathan Ornelas/SS, Jack Leiter/RHS, Kumar Rocker/RHS, Justin Foscue/2B, Josh Smith/2B, Josh Sborz/RHR
The Rangers have pulled off a near miraculous organizational turnaround under GM Chris Young. They have a top-10 farm system and a solidly above-.500 team with a good shot at a playoff berth after losing 102 games in 2021 and 94 games in 2022. The top three players on this list were acquired in free agency, but most of the players on the rest of the list (aside from Gray) were either traded for on the cheap or signed/drafted as amateurs by Texas. As Houston's core ages, Texas -- and Seattle! -- has been positioned to be a real thorn in the Astros' side.
5. Houston Astros
Last year's core rank: 3
Elite: Kyle Tucker/RF, Yordan Alvarez/DH
Above average: Framber Valdez/LHS, Jeremy Pena/SS, Chas McCormick/CF, Cristian Javier/RHS, Hunter Brown/RHS
Solid: Lance McCullers/RHS, Ryan Pressly/RHR, Luis Garcia/RHS, Bryan Abreu/RHR, Yainer Diaz/C, Jose Abreu/1B, Mauricio Dubon/2B, Jake Meyers/CF, Jacob Melton/CF, Rafael Montero/RHR, J.P. France/RHS, Zach Dezenzo/3B
Houston slips a bit this year: Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve are set to be free agents after 2024, so they no longer qualify for this list. It's still a strong, top-heavy group, though, and McCormick and Brown joined the "above average" tier to pick up the slack. But Houston now has the worst farm system in baseball after making the Justin Verlander trade, so new GM Dana Brown (who ran the Braves drafts for years, through 2022) will need to work to replenish things as this core continues to age.
6. Baltimore Orioles
AP Photo/Scott Audette
Last year's core rank: 13
Elite: Adley Rutschman/C
Above average: Gunnar Henderson/3B, Cedric Mullins/CF, Jackson Holliday/SS, Felix Bautista/RHR
Solid: Kyle Bradish/RHS, Grayson Rodriguez/RHS, Austin Hays/RF, Jordan Westburg/2B, Yennier Cano/RHR, Ryan Mountcastle/1B, Coby Mayo/3B, Colton Cowser/CF, Heston Kjerstad/RF, Joey Ortiz/SS, Jorge Mateo/SS, Cade Povich/LHS, Jud Fabian/CF, Dylan Beavers/RF, Ramon Urias/3B, Dean Kremer/RHS, Cole Irvin/LHS, Enrique Bradfield Jr./CF, D.L. Hall/LHR, Kyle Stowers/RF
The Orioles were my "most intriguing" team in last year's rankings, with the most players listed of any club, fueled by the top-rated farm system. Fast-forward to this year and the Orioles are a playoff team, they still have the top-rated farm system, they still have the top prospect in baseball (no longer Gunnar Henderson -- it's now Jackson Holliday), and they have once again tied for the most players on this list with 25. Only Oakland has a lower payroll, and there are still some holes to be filled, so I'd expect this team to be comfortably in the top five in next year's version of the core rankings.
7. Tampa Bay Rays
Last year's core rank: 11
Elite: None
Above average: Zach Eflin/RHS, Randy Arozarena/LF, Yandy Diaz/1B, Junior Caminero/3B, Isaac Paredes/3B, Josh Lowe/RF, Jeffrey Springs/LHS, Shane McClanahan/LHS
Solid: Jose Siri/CF, Aaron Civale/RHS, Carson Williams/SS, Drew Rasmussen/RHS, Pete Fairbanks/RHR, Taj Bradley/RHS, Brandon Lowe/2B, Luke Raley/RF, Curtis Mead/3B, Shane Baz/RHS, Taylor Walls/SS, Jonathan Aranda/1B, Colin Poche/LHR, Kevin Kelly/RHR
The Rays just keep doing it, continuing to churn out solid prospects to step into the big league roster, which gives them enough depth to weather pitcher injuries or variance in hitter performances. Eflin was in the Phillies system for eight years and is now having a career season in his first year with the Rays -- at age 29. It isn't a wildly different story than Tyler Glasnow or Springs, or even Arozarena, for that matter. Caminero could be a force of nature in the big leagues next season -- a few players in the "above average" tier could be argued for "elite," but I think Caminero is the best candidate to actually make the leap.
8. St. Louis Cardinals
Last year's core rank: 4
Elite: None
Above average: Nolan Arenado/3B, Nolan Gorman/2B, Tommy Edman/SS, Willson Contreras/C, Ryan Helsley/RHR, Lars Nootbaar/RF, Miles Mikolas/RHS, Brendan Donovan/2B
Solid: Jordan Walker/RF, Dylan Carlson/CF, Masyn Winn/SS, Steven Matz/LHS, Tink Hence/RHS, Thomas Saggese/2B, Alec Burleson/RF, Victor Scott/CF, JoJo Romero/LHR, Matthew Liberatore/LHS, Zack Thompson/LHS, Ivan Herrera/C, Giovanny Gallegos/RHR
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Both Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O'Neill lost eligibility here, as they'll both be free agents after 2024. Arenado's seemingly lucky results last year have normalized, so he moved down a tier. Gorman has broken through, but this franchise's fortunes the next few years will be dictated by how well the group of young players on this list develops, since the rotation doesn't have a frontline-type pitcher.
9. Cleveland Guardians
Last year's core rank: 9
Elite: Jose Ramirez/3B
Above average: Emmanuel Clase/RHR, Tanner Bibee/RHS, Andres Gimenez/2B, Steven Kwan/LF, Triston McKenzie/RHS
Solid: Gavin Williams/RHS, Logan Allen/LHS, Josh Naylor/RF, Brayan Rocchio/SS, Chase DeLauter/RF, Bo Naylor/C, Kyle Manzardo/1B, Juan Brito/SS, Daniel Espino/RHS, Tyler Freeman/2B, Myles Straw/CF, Cal Quantrill/RHS, Trevor Stephan/RHR, Eli Morgan/RHR, James Karinchak/RHR, Ramon Laureano/RF, Will Brennan/RF
It's fitting that the Guardians were ninth on last year's list, too. They keep plugging along and doing what they've been doing for years: letting stars leave when they reach free agency, trying to extend them before they get there, and producing a steady flow of young players to fill holes. Shane Bieber fell off the list and they traded Aaron Civale, but there are still six big league-caliber starting options on this list with two-plus years of control. DeLauter, Manzardo, Brito and Espino all look like they'll debut at some point next year after a strong class of rookies this year that included Bibee, Williams, Allen, Rocchio and the younger Naylor.
10. New York Mets
Last year's core rank: 7
Elite: Francisco Lindor/SS
Above average: Brandon Nimmo/CF, Edwin Diaz/RHR, Kodai Senga/RHS, Francisco Alvarez/C
Solid: Jeff McNeil/2B, Brett Baty/3B, Jett Williams/SS, Drew Gilbert/CF, Ronny Mauricio/SS, Starling Marte/CF, Luisangel Acuna/SS, Kevin Parada/C, D.J. Stewart/RF, Mark Vientos/3B, Christian Scott/RHS
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Pete Alonso, who was on last year's list, fell off it due to contract status -- as did Scherzer, who along with some others was traded anyway. Alvarez took a nice step forward this year, while the "solid" tier now includes eight recently graduated or current prospects. There was well over $100 million in payroll space created between Opening Day 2023 and the beginning of this offseason -- via trades, one-time payments within those trades and expiring deals -- so there's plenty of room to supplement the roster for 2024.
11. San Diego Padres
Last year's core rank: 6
Elite: Fernando Tatis Jr./SS
Above average: Manny Machado/3B, Xander Bogaerts/SS, Joe Musgrove/RHS, Yu Darvish/RHS, Ethan Salas/C
Solid: Jackson Merrill/SS, Trent Grisham/CF, Jake Cronenworth/2B, Luis Campusano/C, Dylan Lesko/RHS, Robby Snelling/LHS, Jairo Iriarte/RHS, Robert Suarez/RHR
Juan Soto and Ha-Seong Kim, who lead this year's team in WAR, lost eligibility since they're both free agents after 2024, though Kim seems like a good bet to re-sign. Machado and Bogaerts both had huge 2022 campaigns with seemingly lucky outcomes, and this year both of them are performing right on those same underlying metrics, placing them at the top end of that "above average" tier. On the positive end, Tatis is back to his old self and Salas is one of the most exciting prospects in recent memory. Merrill looks like he may be in the big leagues next year, while Lesko, Snelling and Iriarte could all be rotation options in 2024 or 2025.
On the negative side, the four big leaguers in the "above average" tier are all at least 30 years old and collectively make nearly $80 million annually. That seems reasonable among retail-rate contracts for veterans until you realize Machado's CBT salary balloons to $39 million starting in 2027 through 2033 and Bogaerts is making $25 million annually through 2033. It isn't panic time on the team-building front, but it's getting a little harder to hold this core together with each successive season if there aren't a bunch of home playoff games to subsidize the payroll.
12. New York Yankees
AP/Kevin M. Cox
Last year's core rank: 12
Elite: Aaron Judge/RF, Gerrit Cole/RHS
Above average: Anthony Volpe/SS
Solid: Jasson Dominguez/CF, Carlos Rodon/LHS, Giancarlo Stanton/DH, Oswald Peraza/SS, Everson Pereira/RF, Austin Wells/C, Spencer Jones/RF, Clarke Schmidt/RHS, Chase Hampton/RHS, Trey Sweeney/SS, Drew Thorpe/RHS, Jose Trevino/C, Nestor Cortes/LHS, Agustin Ramirez/C, D.J. LeMahieu/2B, Michael King/RHR, Ian Hamilton/RHR, Scott Effross/RHR
The Yankees' quiet deadline was in part due to an upper minors system full of potential everyday players. In the past few weeks, we've seen Dominguez, Pereira and Wells make their big league debuts, while Sweeney and Jones might make theirs next season. If half of those guys stick as everyday types alongside Volpe and Judge, and rookie Peraza takes over another starting infield spot, then things become much easier for embattled GM Brian Cashman this winter. As it stands right now, Judge and Cole are the two stars, both in their 30s, making a combined $76 million per year. If the only other player close to that level who's under control for multiple years is Volpe, then New York is in real long-term trouble given its division. If Dominguez and one other young hitter click next season while Judge and Cole keep it up, Volpe continues improving and Rodon/Stanton stay healthy, then this is a clear and likely dangerous playoff team. That's too many ifs right now, though.
13. Arizona Diamondbacks
Last season's core rank: 20
Elite: Corbin Carroll/CF, Zac Gallen/RHS
Above average: Ketel Marte/2B, Merrill Kelly/RHS
Solid: Jordan Lawlar/SS, Geraldo Perdomo/SS, Gabriel Moreno/C, Brandon Pfaadt/RHS, Tommy Troy/3B, Alek Thomas/CF, Enmanuel Rivera/3B, Slade Cecconi/RHS, Jake McCarthy/RF, Kevin Ginkel/RHR, Kyle Nelson/LHR, Ryne Nelson/RHS, Drey Jameson/RHS
Carroll has made the leap in his rookie season, Gallen just keeps getting better, Lawlar is set to make his big league debut this week and Perdomo has had a breakthrough year. While all of the Diamondbacks' young pitching has debuted now, none of them has broken through to a slam-dunk long-term rotation type just yet -- and Thomas has stalled a bit. Arizona moves to the front of this somewhat muddled group because it has developed stars and might have a few more coming, but it could make another jump into the top 10 next year if the second tier of young players can progress a bit more.
14. Toronto Blue Jays
Last year's core rank: 5
Elite: Kevin Gausman/RHS
Above average: Bo Bichette/SS, Vladimir Guerrero Jr./1B, George Springer/RF
Solid: Daulton Varsho/LF, Ricky Tiedeman/LHS, Jose Berrios/RHS, Chris Bassitt/RHS, Orelvis Martinez/3B, Alejandro Kirk/C, Jordan Romano/RHR, Erik Swanson/RHR, Santiago Espinal/2B, Addison Barger/2B, Alek Manoah/RHS, Davis Schneider/2B, Tim Mayza/LHR, Nate Pearson/RHR
The Blue Jays ranked fifth last year -- basically at the front of a group of similar teams -- so they're now near the end of that same tier because of regression from Vlad Jr., Manoah and Kirk without anyone else taking a big step forward. The farm system will graduate Tiedemann, Martinez and Barger along with recent call-up Schneider, and there's a tier of high-upside prep picks in the next wave. In the short term, finding an "elite" or "above average" player from that group of prospects is key, but it's more important to get that group of underachieving big leaguers back on the right track.
15. Philadelphia Phillies
Last year's core rank: 8
Elite: Trea Turner/SS
Above average: J.T. Realmuto/C, Bryce Harper/RF, Bryson Stott/2B, Brandon Marsh/CF
Solid: Andrew Painter/RHS, Alec Bohm/3B, Taijuan Walker/RHS, Kyle Schwarber/LF, Mick Abel/RHS, Nick Castellanos/RF, Johan Rojas/CF, Ranger Suarez/LHS, Jose Alvarado/LHR, Gregory Soto/LHR, Edmundo Sosa/3B, Cristopher Sanchez/LHS, Seranthony Dominguez/RHR
There's always at least one organization at any given time that's consistently spending in free agency to help out a middling farm system, but its savvy GM has a better-than-average track record of finding solid value in that way while also knowing which prospects to trade. It's a good bet that whatever team Dave Dombrowski is running will fall into that description, but it's also been true of the Giants under Brian Sabean, the Nationals under Mike Rizzo and the White Sox under Kenny Williams. The Phils have been good at amateur player acquisition, so having a solid addition reaching the big leagues every year (Bohm, Stott, Rojas of late) is helpful, with Painter and Abel on the horizon.
16. Chicago Cubs
Last year's core rank: 22
Elite: None
Above average: Dansby Swanson/SS, Justin Steele/LHS, Nico Hoerner/2B, Ian Happ/LF
Solid: Seiya Suzuki/RF, Pete Crow-Armstrong/CF, Cade Horton/RHS, Jordan Wicks/LHS, Kevin Alcantara/CF, Adbert Alzolay/RHR, Owen Caissie/RF, Matt Shaw/2B, Jameson Taillon/RHS, Moises Ballesteros/C, Christopher Morel/3B, Hayden Wesneski/RHS, Ben Brown/RHS, Miguel Amaya/C, Nick Madrigal/3B, James Triantos/3B, Alexander Canario/RF, Daniel Palencia/RHR, Mike Tauchman/CF, Julian Merryweather/RHR, Patrick Wisdom/3B
The Cubs have done a number of things well in the past year. They signed Swanson to a megadeal starting in his age-29 year coming off an outlier, career season -- and then he followed it up with a near replica, the second-best year of his career. Steele has made "the leap" this season, as did Horton, last year's first-round pick. Those two point to a larger turnaround in the Cubs' general pitcher development. Crow-Armstrong might get a big league look this season after improving again this year, Wicks has had a solid big league debut, and Ballesteros and Brown had breakthroughs this year, as well. The key to completing this transition to perennial contender is to integrate these half dozen or so young players with little-to-no big league experience as soon as possible. If that happens by next season, the available payroll can then go to a handful of spots, which could potentially mean adding a couple more Swanson-type talents in free agency after 2024.
17. Pittsburgh Pirates
Last year's core rank: 22
Elite: None
Above average: Mitch Keller/RHS, Ke'Bryan Hayes/3B, Bryan Reynolds/CF, Paul Skenes/RHS, David Bednar/RHR, Oneil Cruz/SS
Solid: Endy Rodriguez/C, Termarr Johnson/2B, Henry Davis/C, Jack Suwinski/LF, Liover Peguero/SS, Johan Oviedo/RHS, Jared Jones/RHS, Connor Joe/RF, Colin Holderman/RHR, Angel Perdomo/LHR, Thomas Harrington/RHS, Carmen Mlodzinski/RHR, Quinn Priester/RHS, Anthony Solometo/LHS, J.T. Brubaker/RHS
The Pirates are progressing, with most of this list in the big leagues now. They also had breakthroughs from Keller and Bednar, not to mention drafting Skenes first overall in this year's draft. My criticism entering the year still somewhat holds, however: They haven't had a non-premium acquisition (i.e. high amateur bonus or headline return in a trade) become a key part of their core, while the development of that cohort has also been mixed. The gap between the Pirates and the clubs at the top of this ranking is largely just the efficiency of their players' development, because Pittsburgh is putting tons of capital toward acquiring young talent.
18. Chicago White Sox
Last year's core rank: 15
Elite: Luis Robert Jr./CF
Above average: Dylan Cease/RHS, Colson Montgomery/SS
Solid: Gregory Santos/RHR, Andrew Benintendi/RF, Yoan Moncada/3B, Noah Schultz/LHS, Bryan Ramos/3B, Andrew Vaughn/1B, Eloy Jimenez/DH, Michael Kopech/RHS, Aaron Bummer/LHR, Edgar Quero/C, Oscar Colas/RF, Jake Eder/LHS, Jordan Leasure/RHR, Garrett Crochet/LHR, Korey Lee/C, Nick Nastrini/RHS, Jonathan Cannon/RHS, Trayce Thompson/RF
Similar to the Nationals, the White Sox have done a good job with an old-school approach, acquiring potential star-level talents through multiple avenues. They have not been as good, similar to the Padres, at coaxing star-level talents into producing star-level production annually or at building a cohesive top-to-bottom roster that you need to regularly win baseball games. The mini teardown has begun and the new GM has been hired, but Chris Getz was the longtime head of player development, which was generally seen in the industry to be the worst department for the White Sox for the past five-plus years. That doesn't mean he can't be good in this new role, but the organization needs to nail its personnel choices for the next year or two to turn this ship in the right direction.
19. Minnesota Twins
Last year's core rank: 17
Elite: None
Above average: Carlos Correa/SS, Byron Buxton/CF, Pablo Lopez/RHS
Solid: Brooks Lee/SS, Edouard Julien/2B, Matt Wallner/RF, Royce Lewis/CF, Joe Ryan/RHS, Ryan Jeffers/C, Jhoan Duran/RHR, Walker Jenkins/RF, Emmanuel Rodriguez/CF, Bailey Ober/RHS, Griffin Jax/RHR, Marco Raya/RHS, Jorge Polanco/2B, David Festa/RHS, Christian Vasquez/C, Alex Kirilloff/1B, Trevor Larnach/LF, Willi Castro/3B, Brock Stewart/RHR, Jose Miranda/3B
The most notable changes here were swapping Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez, the emergence of the first four players at the top of the "solid" tier and Buxton moving down a tier due to durability issues. The Twins have a solid, mid-market payroll combination of scouting and development. Similar to Milwaukee, I'd bet on Minnesota regularly outpacing its core and payroll rankings, boosted a bit by playing in the Central Division.
20. Cincinnati Reds
AP Photo/Aaron Doster
Last year's core rank: 19
Elite: None
Above average: Elly De La Cruz/SS, Matt McLain/SS, Alexis Diaz/RHR
Solid: Hunter Greene/RHS, Andrew Abbott/LHS, Spencer Steer/3B, T.J. Friedl/CF, Jonathan India/2B, Tyler Stephenson/C, Nick Lodolo/LHS, Noelvi Marte/SS, Brandon Williamson/LHS, Rhett Lowder/RHS, Jake Fraley/RF, Graham Ashcraft/RHS, Christian Encarnacion-Strand/3B, Fernando Cruz/RHR, Connor Phillips/RHS, Sam Moll/LHR, Lyon Richardson/RHS, Edwin Arroyo/SS, Chase Petty/RHS
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The Reds may be this year's Orioles in terms of placing on the core rankings. The O's were 13th last year, but the sheer amount of intriguing young players on the verge of establishing themselves in the big leagues meant they could really move up in this year's ranking (and also in the win column) -- and they did. The Reds essentially rank in the same spot as last year with the same names and same number of players in each tier. But now, just three players on this list haven't made their big league debut and they are on the back half of the list. Cincy has the fifth-lowest payroll in baseball, so they have money to spend but not many holes to fill, which means this winter or next could be very exciting for Reds fans.
21. Milwaukee Brewers
Last year's core rank: 12
Elite: None
Above average: Christian Yelich/LF, William Contreras/C, Jackson Chourio/CF, Devin Williams/RHR
Solid: Sal Frelick/CF, Freddy Peralta/RHS, Joey Wiemer/CF, Jeferson Quero/C, Tyler Black/3B, Garrett Mitchell/CF, Jacob Misiorowski/RHR, Victor Caratini/C, Hoby Milner/LHR, Brice Turang/2B, Aaron Ashby/LHS, Joel Payamps/RHR
The Brewers are stealthily a model franchise. While the Rays, Braves and Dodgers get the most attention, the Brewers are also competitive to the end of the season -- if not in the playoffs every year despite a below-average payroll. A fresh wave of young talent is in the upper minors or just graduated to the big leagues, headlined by potential star Chourio but supported by potential solid players in Frelick, Wiemer, Quero, Black, Mitchell and Misiorowski. The Brewers' eye for talent in all markets and ability to not rely on free agency means they will continue to outpunch their ranking here and their payroll.
22. San Francisco Giants
Last year's core rank: 28
Elite: None
Above average: Logan Webb/RHS, Patrick Bailey/C, Camilo Doval/RHR
Solid: Luis Matos/CF, Marco Luciano/SS, Kyle Harrison/LHS, Thairo Estrada/2B, Carson Whisenhunt/LHS, Mike Yastrzemski/RF, LaMonte Wade Jr./1B, Wade Meckler/CF, Taylor Rogers/LHR, Mitch Haniger/RF, Wilmer Flores/1B, Casey Schmitt/3B, Mason Black/RHS, Ryan Walker/RHR, Tyler Rogers/RHR
The Giants coming in at 28th in last year's rankings was the most shocking outcome on the whole list. I think that was a low point for the organization in the past few years, with a down group of talent not finding much luck. This year's big league results aren't much different, but the young players have taken a step forward at the big league and minor league levels. I also liked their draft again, though none of those players are listed here yet since they're teenagers. The first eight players listed constitute a solid young core, and they should all be settled in the big leagues by next summer, with Webb and Bailey holding the potential to jump to the "elite" tier by then. The lack of a star on a mega contract means a rotating cast of role players who don't qualify for this exercise, but it also means no truly bad contracts, either, keeping things nimble while the Giants wait for the next wave of young players to show up.
23. Miami Marlins
Last year's core rank: 18
Elite: None
Above average: Sandy Alcantara/RHS, Luis Arraez/2B, Eury Perez/RHS, Jesus Luzardo/LHS
Solid: Jazz Chisholm Jr./CF, Jake Burger/3B, Braxton Garrett/LHS, Edward Cabrera/RHS, Trevor Rogers/LHS, Max Meyer/RHS, Jon Berti/SS, Xavier Edwards/2B, Jesus Sanchez/RF, A.J. Puk/LHR, Dax Fulton/LHS, Andrew Nardi/LHR, Steven Okert/LHR, J.T. Chargois/RHR
The Fish have resorted to trading for position players -- everyone on this list but Berti (minor league free agent) was acquired that way -- as they just haven't found success doing it internally. They have a solid playoff-caliber rotation and back end of the bullpen in the organization right now, and I don't think their amateur scouting or player development is bad, they just need a few more position players to break through.
24. Boston Red Sox
Last year's core rank: 24
Elite: Rafael Devers/3B
Above average: None
Solid: Triston Casas/1B, Masataka Yoshida/LF, Marcelo Mayer/SS, Brayan Bello/RHS, Trevor Story/SS, Roman Anthony/RF, Jarren Duran/CF, Ceddanne Rafaela/CF, Kyle Teel/C, Nick Yorke/2B, Kutter Crawford/RHS, Garrett Whitlock/RHS, Brandon Walter/LHS, Wilyer Abreu/RF, Luis Urias/2B, Blaze Jordan/1B, Connor Wong/C, Tanner Houck/RHS, Wikelman Gonzalez/RHS
There's a nice base of upper minors talent along with recently graduated types in Casas, Bello, Duran and Crawford. I think things are headed in the right direction, with a shot that another homegrown star materializes from the top 100-plus overall group of Mayer, Anthony, Rafaela or Teel. But the Red Sox need some players to graduate into the top two tiers, as signing any on the free agent market doesn't seem to be part of the current strategy.
25. Detroit Tigers
Last year's core rank: 25
Elite: None
Above average: Riley Greene/CF
Solid: Spencer Torkelson/1B, Kerry Carpenter/RF, Max Clark/CF, Tarik Skubal/LHS, Jackson Jobe/RHS, Colt Keith/3B, Jake Rogers/C, Javier Baez/SS, Akil Baddoo/CF, Jace Jung/2B, Reese Olson/RHS, Jason Foley/RHR, Ty Madden/RHS, Parker Meadows/CF, Matt Manning/RHS, Dillon Dingler/C, Troy Melton/RHS, Brant Hurter/LHS, Zach McKinstry/3B, Tyler Holton/LHR, Will Vest/LHR
A new regime is in charge and things are already going better in Detroit. Torkelson might be turning the corner, Carpenter has emerged and Skubal is pitching well. The farm system is trending up (11th!) with a strong draft headlined by Clark. We're also seeing the reemergence of Jobe and breakouts from Melton and Hurter, while Keith, Jung, Meadows and Madden have progressed. The Tigers are still ranked down here since the big league stars haven't materialized yet, but there's a bulk of solid young players and some momentum.
26. Kansas City Royals
Last year's core rank: 27
Elite: Bobby Witt Jr./SS
Above average: None
Solid: Vinnie Pasquantino/1B, Cole Ragans/LHS, Brady Singer/RHS, Maikel Garcia/SS, Carter Jensen/C, Cayden Wallace/3B, Kris Bubic/LHS, Mason Barnett/RHS, Salvador Perez/C, M.J. Melendez/RF, Carlos Hernandez/RHR, Gavin Cross/RF
The Royals have some clear things to celebrate in Witt Jr. and 2023 revelation Ragans. It basically ends there. They have been getting below-average results from their domestic and international scouting, in addition to player development, all while pushing their chips into rebuilding, where you have to rely on those three departments to produce. Anyone on Earth would've picked Witt Jr. with the second overall pick in 2019, so it makes one wonder what the Royals' plan has been for the past four years.
27. Los Angeles Angels
Last year's core rank: 21
Elite: Mike Trout/CF
Above average: None
Solid: Zach Neto/SS, Patrick Sandoval/LHS, Logan O'Hoppe/C, Taylor Ward/LF, Reid Detmers/LHS, Griffin Canning/RHS, Luis Rengifo/2B, Nolan Schanuel/1B, Anthony Rendon/3B, Tyler Anderson/LHS, Caden Dana/RHS, Ben Joyce/RHR, Mickey Moniak/CF, Max Stassi/C
Shohei Ohtani is as good as out the door, and Trout has had three straight seasons with injuries of note. Neto and Schanuel look like solid first-round picks who are everyday players, while Dana and Joyce both look like solid selections a few rounds later. There's a nice base of solid, current 1.5-to-3.0 WAR-type players to complement Trout, but more talent is needed, ideally in the "above average" tier.
28. Washington Nationals
Last year's core rank: 29
Elite: None
Above average: James Wood/RF, Dylan Crews/CF
Solid: C.J. Abrams/SS, Lane Thomas/RF, MacKenzie Gore/LHS, Josiah Gray/RHS, Cade Cavalli/RHS, Hunter Harvey/RHR, Keibert Ruiz/C, Stone Garrett/LF, Jake Irvin/RHS, Brady House/SS
I noted after the trade deadline that the Nats' farm system has moved from 24th before the 2022 season to 13th before this season to seventh now. The gap between that number and this one is that only the top four prospects in the system are both good enough and close enough to the big leagues to qualify for this exercise, while the actual current big league team doesn't have a ton of clear standout contributors. Abrams, Gore and Gray are solid young players acquired in the Soto and Scherzer/Turner deals who are progressing. Ruiz was acquired in that group and has stalled a bit, while Thomas, Harvey, Garrett and Irvin seem more like Band-Aid fixes for a few seasons. The Nats might have a nice group of potential future stars, but they have zero right now and the upper levels are thin on quality big leaguers.
29. Oakland Athletics
Last year's core rank: 26
Elite: None
Above average: Zack Gelof/2B
Solid: Tyler Soderstrom/C, Mason Miller/RHS, Ryan Noda/1B, Esteury Ruiz/CF, Paul Blackburn/RHS, Seth Brown/RF, Shea Langeliers/C, Lawrence Butler/RF, Brent Rooker/DH, Ken Waldichuk/LHS, Denzel Clarke/CF, Jacob Wilson/SS, Darrell Hernaiz/SS, Luis Medina/RHS
Early MLB free agency rankings
Now that the trade deadline has passed, Kiley McDaniel takes a look at who could get paid big this offseason.
Ohtani and rest of top 10 »
It's hard to look at this list and not think it's just the manifestation of tiny revenues, tiny payrolls and ownership forcing the baseball ops staff to thread the needle personnel-wise to be competitive. The 2020 and 2021 drafts account for the first three players on the list, along with Clarke. The rest were either acquired in trades while tearing down the team (Ruiz, Langeliers, Waldrichuk, Hernaiz, Medina), solid finds via low cost acquisition (Noda, Blackburn, Brown, Butler, Rooker) or their most recent first-rounder (Wilson). The player acquisitions and player development have not been good enough to field a playoff contender.
30. Colorado Rockies
Last year's core rank: 30
Elite: None
Above average: None
Solid: Ryan McMahon/3B, Ezequiel Tovar/SS, Nolan Jones/LF, Adael Amador/SS, Zac Veen/CF, Chase Dollander/RHS, Kris Bryant/RF, Kyle Freeland/LHS, Brenton Doyle/CF, Yanquiel Fernandez/LF, Sterlin Thompson/3B, Jordan Beck/RF, Justin Lawrence/RHR, Drew Romo/C, Gabriel Hughes/RHS
The Rockies organization is below average at most things, but they've had a solid run the past few years in acquiring and developing position players. The first four players all fit that description, as do a few more further down the list. On the negative side, "most things" includes signing free agents and acquiring and developing pitchers. Hughes is the best of a huge group of pitchers currently recovering from Tommy John surgery.
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