By The Athletic NHL Staff
6h ago
At times over each of the last few seasons, the Pacific has been characterized as one of the weaker divisions in the NHL.
Not anymore.
The Pacific ended last season with a bang. It produced three of the final four teams in the Western Conference, including the eventual champions and others that appear to be on the rise.
The defending champion Vegas Golden Knights lead the way, with a giant target painted on their collective backs by the other worthy contenders, of which there are plenty. Connor McDavid and Edmonton’s elite offense are primed for another run, while the Los Angeles Kings spent the summer adding to their already deep forward group. Coming off a surprise playoffs, Seattle’s young players could take another step and close the gap between the Kraken and the contenders in the West.
There’s even optimism for the non-playoff teams from a year ago. The Canucks finished last season strong under Rick Tocchet, and Calgary has both the talent and goaltending for a bounce-back year. Anaheim and San Jose are both still rebuilding, but have intriguing young talent that’s on the way up.
The Pacific should be an absolute battle.
Read more: NHL player poll: Who’s the top chirper? Which city should be next in expansion?
To set the stage, The Athletic put together a roundtable of six Pacific Division writers, asking them to catch us up on each team: who’s new, who’s gone and what the reasons are for optimism and concern.
We also asked each to make a bold prediction and pick the order of finish, from 1 to 8, with the first-place team receiving eight points, second place (seven), third place (six) and so on.
Here are the results of that poll, including each team’s total number of points and first-place votes:
Edmonton Oilers
47
5
Vegas Golden Knights
41
1
Los Angeles Kings
35
0
Calgary Flames
27
0
Seattle Kraken
27
0
Vancouver Canucks
21
0
Anaheim Ducks
12
0
San Jose Sharks
6
0
We have a near-unanimous pick at the top, bad news for the two teams at the bottom and a whole lot of uncertainty in between. Following is our team-by-team analysis, in order of predicted finish.
Edmonton Oilers
Who’s new: F Connor Brown, F Drake Caggiula, F Lane Pederson
Who’s gone: F Nick Bjugstad, F Klim Kostin, F Kailer Yamamoto
Reason for optimism: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl — ever heard of them? The Oilers have one of the greatest players of all time and the most productive goal-scorer in the NHL over the last five seasons. That’s a pretty good start. They also have a .683 points percentage since Jay Woodcroft was hired as coach in February 2022. That ranks behind just Boston and Carolina. They’ve lost to the Stanley Cup champions in the playoffs in back-to-back years. This group is motivated and primed to win the organization’s first title since 1990.
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Reason for concern: The Oilers added one notable player this offseason. That player, Connor Brown, hasn’t played since October because of an ACL tear. They lost three useful forwards because of cap constraints. There were no changes to the defence and goaltending on a team that finished 17th in the league in goals against last season. Though the Oilers were considerably better after defenceman Mattias Ekholm was acquired in February – they were sixth-best in goals against per 60 minutes through the end of the regular season, albeit with an easy schedule – the Oilers surrendered 3.5 goals per game in the playoffs. There are a few things to worry about heading into the season.
Bold prediction: Buoyed by an excellent playoff performance and the chance to run the league’s reigning best power play for a full season, Evan Bouchard will finish in the top three in scoring for defensemen.
— Daniel Nugent-Bowman
Vegas Golden Knights
Who’s new: Assistant coach Dominique Ducharme, F Max Comtois
Who’s gone: Assistant coach Ryan Craig, F Reilly Smith, F Phil Kessel, F Teddy Blueger, G Laurent Brossoit, G Jonathan Quick
Reason for optimism: The Golden Knights return all but one player from their Stanley Cup championship run, and look to have all of the necessary ingredients for another. Vegas rode a big, physical defense to the title, and the entire blue line will be back. Yes, veterans Alex Pietrangelo and Alec Martinez are another year older, but Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud are also quickly developing into top-four options, ready to take on bigger roles. Up front, the team is deep and talented at center, led by Jack Eichel, Chandler Stephenson and William Karlsson.
Reason for concern: If Vegas stays healthy, it’s going to be a really good team, but that’s no guarantee. The Golden Knights were very healthy through their playoff run, but they’re not that far removed from the 2021-22 season that was lost due to catastrophic injuries up and down the lineup. It’s one of the oldest lineups in the league, with many of the key players on the wrong side of 30. Plus, arguably the team’s most important piece — captain Mark Stone — has missed more than 80 games over the last two seasons with serious back injuries. It’s fair to wonder if he can make it through the season. If he does, Vegas should be primed for another good run.
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Bold prediction: Chandler Stephenson leads the team in points. He was only one behind Jack Eichel last season, and now he’s in a contract year. Stephenson has outplayed his meager $2.75 million cap in every year of the deal, and will do it again this season before cashing in next summer. He’s been one of the most reliable producers in Vegas, and that was with linemate Stone often injured. If Stone stays relatively healthy, Stephenson could be in for his biggest season yet.
— Jesse Granger
Los Angeles Kings
Who’s new: C Pierre-Luc Dubois, G Cam Talbot, RW Trevor Lewis, D Andreas Englund, G David Rittich, D Kevin Connauton
Who’s gone: F Gabriel Vilardi, F Alex Iafallo, D Sean Durzi, D Sean Walker, F Rasmus Kupari, G Cal Petersen
Reason for optimism: There was a fair amount of upheaval for a playoff club, but GM Rob Blake clearly felt something extra was necessary in order to get past Edmonton and potentially challenge Vegas. Dubois likely slots in as the No. 2 center and joins Anze Kopitar, Phillip Danault and Blake Lizotte to give L.A. one of the league’s strongest foursomes down the middle. Continued growth and improved production from young forwards Quinton Byfield and Arthur Kaliyev will only deepen their forward group. Having Vladislav Gavrikov for a full season should give them a top-four on defense they’ll feel comfortable matching against anyone. Top prospect Brandt Clarke offers great promise on a blue line that’s been bolstered.
Reason for concern: Byfield and Kaliyev might not take that big step. Dubois might have trouble finding chemistry with linemates, which figures to start with Kaliyev and point-per-game scorer Kevin Fiala on his wings. The goaltending might become a major issue, like in the early part of last season, if Talbot doesn’t flourish behind a goalie-friendly system and Pheonix Copley doesn’t replicate his solid netminding during his season-saving mission a year ago. The Kings also could have issues if they have trouble solidifying a third pairing on defense and don’t improve their penalty kill, an element that was erratic in 2022-23 and let them down in their playoff loss to the Oilers.
Bold prediction: Byfield, as an effective linemate for Kopitar and 40-goal scorer Adrian Kempe, finally finds his offensive touch in the NHL. He remains healthy, going well into double digits in goals and scoring between 40 and 50 points. Also, fifth-year coach Todd McLellan earns an extension after leading the Kings on a run to the Western Conference finals – or gets a pink slip after another first-round defeat.
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— Eric Stephens
Calgary Flames
Who’s new: GM Craig Conroy, coach Ryan Huska, F Yegor Sharangovich, D Jordan Oesterle, D Brady Lyle
Who’s gone: GM Brad Treliving, coach Darryl Sutter, F Milan Lucic, F Trevor Lewis, D Troy Stecher, D Michael Stone, F Matthew Phillips, F Nick Ritchie
Reason for optimism: This year’s Flames include prime rebound candidates and players entering the final year of their contracts who know they’re playing for their next contract. Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar seemingly have gotten over the culture shock that came with that blockbuster trade from Florida to Calgary. Nazem Kadri is coming off the longest offseason he’s had since 2016. Andrew Mangiapane no longer has a nagging shoulder injury. Jacob Markstrom appears healthy, too. The defense corps, which limited shots against, still has its leader in Ryan Huska — except he’s the head coach now. The Flames are too talented to tank, and if everyone plays well, there’s no reason why they can’t be a playoff team.
Reason for concern: The Flames could underwhelm again, showing that this core just isn’t good enough. Calgary still doesn’t have an offensive game-breaker and they’ll once again have to rely on scoring by committee, even with a new offensive assistant running things. Depending on what the Flames do with those pending UFAs, the team could ease the blow by facilitating a retool or accelerate the team’s descent into further cap trouble. The same scenario applies if the Flames have a good season, too. GM Craig Conroy could be doomed to repeat the mistakes of his predecessor, Brad Treliving, by letting a high-profile first-liner (Elias Lindholm) go for nothing in free agency next year, depending on how long he lets his situation linger.
Bold prediction: Kadri has a career-high in points with the Flames, reaching the 95-point plateau.
— Julian McKenzie
Seattle Kraken
Who’s new: D Brian Dumoulin, F Kailer Yamamoto
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Who’s gone: F Morgan Geekie, F Daniel Sprong, F Joonas Donskoi, D Carson Soucy
Reason for optimism: The Kraken’s second season was a snow day for the NHL’s newest marketplace — 100 points in the regular season, the rookie of the year in Matty Beniers, a raucous playoff crowd that witnessed the Kraken upset the defending Stanley Cup champions and take the Dallas Stars to seven games. The Kraken have team speed, a clear identity, an above-average blue line and a young group of stars ready to take another step forward. And momentum in the Pacific Division.
Reason for concern: The Kraken led the entire NHL in five-on-five shooting percentage, which is unlikely to be sustainable even if the club is loaded with talented finishers on the wing. What if this team underachieved in their first year, overachieved in their second year, and the truth is they’re just a playoff hopeful, as opposed to a burgeoning contender and consistent 100-point team? Seattle also lost useful depth players like Daniel Sprong and Morgan Geekie, who brought significant size up front and some goal scoring talent to the lineup. Kailler Yamamoto has a high motor and is a solid two-way winger, but he’s not as big or as prolific a goal scorer. That shift will leave the Kraken undersized up front, relative to the best teams in the Pacific Division.
Bold prediction: Tye Kartye establishes himself as an everyday second-line caliber winger and scores 20 goals in his rookie season, garnering some dark horse Calder trophy buzz.
— Thomas Drance
Matty Beniers will be a big part in the Kraken’s attempt to return to the playoffs. (Jerome Miron / USA Today)
Vancouver Canucks
Who’s new: D Carson Soucy, D Ian Cole, C Pius Suter, C Teddy Blueger, G Casey DeSmith G
Who’s gone: D Ethan Bear, D Oliver Ekman-Larsson, F Tanner Pearson, D Travis Dermott, D Kyle Burroughs
Reason for optimism: Vancouver has significantly upgraded its penalty-killing personnel — at least on paper, anyway — with the arrivals of Blueger, Cole, Suter and Soucy. The Canucks’ penalty kill ranked last in the NHL last season, so improving there could give the club a big lift. Filip Hronek should be a major upgrade for the back end. Those players’ arrivals, plus Rick Tocchet’s defensive structure, could yield much better goal prevention results at even strength, too. And if Thatcher Demko can bounce back and stay healthy, it’d be a huge upgrade over the quality of netminding they received last year. The combined impact of those factors could propel the Canucks into becoming legitimate contenders for a wild-card spot.
Reason for concern: As Jim Rutherford said on Wednesday, the Canucks are a playoff team if “everything goes right.” Well, there are a lot of uncertainties that need to break their way. Vancouver’s blue line is improved but there are still legitimate question marks — Soucy hasn’t proven himself in a top-four role and Ian Cole needs to prove he can sustain his form without the insulation of playing on a star studded Lightning team. Is this a playoff-caliber blue line? The penalty kill, while upgraded on paper, has a lot to prove. The Canucks also have to show us they can score enough at five-on-five. Last year, they ranked 26th in shots for and finished 20th in goals for at five-on-five, and that was mostly under Bruce Boudreau, who employed a much looser and freer offensive style. Can the Canucks score enough at even strength — particularly when the Pettersson line isn’t on the ice — once Tocchet has had a chance to fully clamp down on structure and defensive habits? Demko is super-talented but has yet to stay healthy for a full season as a workhorse starter. Vancouver’s power play also has to evolve after losing Bo Horvat, their most prolific power-play goal-scorer the last three seasons.
Bold prediction: Quinn Hughes finishes as a Norris Trophy finalist.
— Harman Dayal
Anaheim Ducks
Who’s new: F Alex Killorn, D Radko Gudas, G Alex Stalock, C Leo Carlsson, D Robert Hagg, D Ilya Lyubushkin
Who’s gone: D Kevin Shattenkirk, F Max Comtois, F Derek Grant, D Simon Benoit, D Nathan Beaulieu, G Anthony Stolarz
Reason for optimism: It can’t be worse than last season, right? The defense will have more snarl and the compete level will rise, helping to set a more upbeat tone through the team. First-year coach Greg Cronin will demand more from his young core, and veterans Killorn and Gudas will help change the tune in the dressing room so that losing is not accepted. Mason McTavish will only get better in his second season. There is also the promise held by No. 2 overall draft pick Leo Carlsson and an impressive prospect pool on defense that will start to break through this season or next. With his play-driving and playmaking, Carlsson showed in the recent Rookie Faceoff tournament that he isn’t far from NHL duty.
Reason for concern: What if twin stars Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry top out as 60-point players? The dip into free agency, for a second straight summer, could again deliver underwhelming results. John Gibson could have trouble rejuvenating a career that’s been on the downturn. The lack of forward depth could remain an issue, particularly on the offensive end. Cronin’s message might fail to grab the room and players might chafe at his demanding approach. The team could fail to improve measurably in numerous analytical metrics. Adam Henrique could struggle with injury and performance to render him unattractive in a potential trade.
Bold prediction: The Ducks won’t make the playoffs, but they’ll be drastically better within their own end and controlling the flow of play, allowing talents like Zegras, Terry and McTavish to take their games to another level. They’ll at least retain some relevance in the standings through American Thanksgiving.
— Eric Stephens
San Jose Sharks
Who’s new: F Anthony Duclair, F Mike Hoffman, D Jan Rutta, F Mikael Granlund, F Filip Zadina, D Kyle Burroughs, G Mackenzie Blackwood
Who’s gone: D Erik Karlsson, G James Reimer, F Steven Lorentz, C Noah Gregor, F Evgeny Svechnikov, F Jonah Gadjovich, F Mikey Eyssimont
Reason for optimism: Over the course of the season, some of the best youth in the system – William Eklund, Danil Gushchin, Thomas Bordeleau, Tristen Robins, Henry Thrun, Shakir Mukhamadullin – begin to force their way onto the roster. But then leaving them together with the AHL’s Barracuda might be better, to create a winning atmosphere at that level before making the jump. Eklund is perhaps the closest to making an impact with the Sharks, but is having him on a team that will struggle mightily better than letting him dominate with the Barracuda and leaving San Jose to have a better shot at landing Macklin Celebrini, the potential No. 1 overall pick? There is also a lengthy list of potential 2024 UFAs, allowing GM Mike Grier to build trade value and stockpile more draft picks.
Reason for concern: Is winning too many games to worsen their lottery odds for Celebrini a concern? It is if you’re dreaming of him and Boston College freshman Will Smith, the Sharks’ 2023 top pick and No. 4 overall choice, coming to San Jose in the fall of 2024. What if Kevin Labanc or newcomers Duclair and Hoffman don’t regain some of the past scoring form and leave Grier with depreciating assets? The goaltending is a question mark at best – Kaapo Kahkonen had a bad 2022-23 season after some initial promising moments following his trade from Minnesota. Blackwood replaces Reimer and has the talent to win the No. 1 job but is a wild card who struggled across his final few seasons with New Jersey.
Bold prediction: An easy bold one would be to say the Sharks won’t finish with the fewest points in the NHL, but I’m waffling on that. How about this one: Duclair will have 25 goals by the March 8 trade deadline to become the best trade asset San Jose has available to shop.
— Eric Stephens
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