Sean Payton can’t blame Russell Wilson for this. Will he anyway? Sando’s Pick Six
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By Mike Sando
5h ago
The Sean Payton era in Denver was already tabloid fodder before his Broncos made the wrong kind of history in his third game as their coach Sunday. The coach who mocked his predecessor, Nathaniel Hackett, lost 70-20 to the Miami Dolphins. The 50-point margin matched the combined scoring differential for Denver’s first nine defeats under Hackett.
The Pick Six column leads this week with a search for meaning in the Broncos’ wreckage and some tough questions about what comes next. Denver was an interesting study even before the Broncos became the first NFL team to allow 70 points since 1966.
Last week, Payton seemed to be setting the stage for a quarterback change, which many in the league still suspect is in the works. This week, Payton’s defense gave up 722 yards. Curiously, Russell Wilson remained in the game, taking hits, with less than five minutes remaining and his team down seven touchdowns. Only 14 more games to go!
Before considering what might come next, a look at the full Pick Six menu:
• Where does Payton go from here?
• Cardinals’ edge could be coaching
• Cue John Facenda for Pack’s comeback
• New head coach scorecard: 4-5 vs. 0-6
• J.C. Jackson and the 2022 free agents
• Two-minute drill: 49ers’ QB upgrade?
1. The Broncos are 0-3 under Payton and just lost by 50. Can Payton continue to win the blame game?
Two lines of thought emerged in conversations with coaches and executives around the NFL heading into Week 3. Both involved Payton’s treatment of Wilson.
Before getting into those, a quick history.
Payton began his Broncos tenure with a concerted effort to reduce Wilson’s profile after the quarterback’s rough first season with Denver. Wilson would no longer have his own office or his own personal coach at the facility.
As training camps were opening, USA Today asked Payton about Wilson’s struggles last season. This is when Payton ripped into Hackett.
“Oh, man, there’s so much dirt around that,” Payton had told USA Today in late July. “There’s 20 dirty hands, for what was allowed, tolerated in the fricking training rooms, the meeting rooms. The offense. I don’t know Hackett. A lot of people had dirt on their hands. It wasn’t just Russell. He didn’t just flip. He still has it. This BS that he hit a wall? Shoot, they couldn’t get a play in. They were 29th in the league in pre-snap penalties on both sides of the ball.”
Once the regular season began, Payton’s Broncos were the ones who couldn’t get a play in. There was no blaming Hackett this time. Payton shifted the blame to Wilson.
The Broncos have burned through timeouts early in games faster than any team. After losing to Washington last week, Payton blamed Wilson for struggling to communicate play calls quickly enough. He pointed to Wilson’s fumble as the turning point in the game. He mentioned that receiver Jerry Jeudy was open on a failed two-point try. Payton talked about simplifying play calls, delivering what amounts to a dagger for any veteran quarterback: “If we need to wristband it, we will,” he said.
This was when the two lines of thought crystallized.
“It’s a Bill Parcells salvage strategy,” one coach said. “You’ve got to get a guy to be accountable and admit his own wrongdoings before you can get any progress. There’s a rock bottom or an admission that he needs to hit first, and Russell has never had to do that. When it got close to that before, he just moved on to Denver from Seattle.”
During one wasted timeout against Washington, some noticed when Payton didn’t meet with Wilson on the field. Wilson instead conferred with his position coach. It might have been no big deal, but in this climate, every detail is a potential clue.
“I believe Wilson will have to play phenomenal to avoid getting benched,” an exec said, expressing the second line of thinking. “The way Payton has talked about Wilson, I would look for it after the Kansas City game, when they have a 10-day break.”
Wilson was the empowered star in Denver last season. Narratives were bent in his favor, at the expense of Hackett. Payton is the Broncos’ empowered star now. He has shaped public narratives accordingly. Does losing by 50 change any of that?
There isn’t much precedent. Payton started 3-0 with the Saints in 2006 and made it clear he loved Drew Brees, even after the quarterback suffered turnovers on three successive drives to open one game.
The Broncos visit Chicago this week. The Bears have lost 13 in a row dating to last season. Denver will presumably win. The Broncos play at home against the Jets in Week 5, followed by a trip to Kansas City for a Thursday night game in Week 6. Then, there are 10 days before a home game against Green Bay and another against the Chiefs before a Week 9 bye.
“The best move for them could be to look at the draft,” the exec said, “but here is the thing. Payton could not stomach people thinking he is bad. If he were to tank, everyone will have to know. Just like after the Washington game.”
2. The Cardinals shocked the Cowboys 28-16. Here’s what is most impressive about Arizona so far.
Arizona’s starting quarterback is a career backup (Joshua Dobbs) acquired from Cleveland 17 days before the season opener. The Cardinals have a first-time head coach (Jonathan Gannon), a first-time offensive coordinator (Drew Petzing) and a first-time defensive coordinator (Nick Rallis). They subtracted DeAndre Hopkins, J.J. Watt and much more than they added in the offseason. Their best player, Budda Baker, landed on injured reserve.
A team that is stockpiling future draft capital is 3-0 against the spread after upsetting the Cowboys as a 12.5-point underdog. This was the 15th time in 360 chances since 2000 that an underdog that big covered by so much, according to TruMedia.
Outperforming expectations can reflect well on coaching, which is what I like about the Cardinals so far.
The 2023 schedule served up NFC East opponents in Arizona’s first three games. Gannon and Rallis were with Philadelphia previously, so they know the NFC East. In looking for ways Arizona might gain some sort of edge, the Cardinals had to be hoping their head coach could put together effective plans against opponents he knows especially well.
So far this season, Arizona has led every game in the second half: 16-10 against the Commanders, 20-0 against the Giants, 21-10 against the Cowboys. Arizona did not let the Dallas game slip away.
The Cardinals remain in the early stages of a roster overhaul. No one will be shocked if they lose by three touchdowns on the road next week against the San Francisco 49ers, but now we also won’t be shocked if they cover the spread.
The performance against Dallas produced the best offensive EPA output (+14.0) by any team against the Cowboys since Cleveland beat Dallas 49-38 early in the 2020 season. The Cardinals’ offensive coordinator, Petzing, was on that Cleveland staff as tight ends coach.
This season, run defense is the Cowboys’ greatest vulnerability. That is where Arizona attacked, in a variety of ways. The Cardinals got 98 yards from running back James Conner, 55 from Dobbs and 54 from receiver RonDale Moore, shown breaking a 45-yard touchdown run below.
The Cardinals ran for 222 yards Sunday, with Dobbs completing 17 of 21 attempts (81 percent) for 189 yards and a touchdown.
3. Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers overcame a 17-0 deficit to beat New Orleans. Cue John Facenda and NFL Films, right?
Before Sunday, NFL teams were 18-719-2 (.025) since 1940 when trailing by exactly 17 points through three quarters, according to Pro Football Reference.
Make it 19-719-2 (.026) after the Packers beat the Saints 18-17 at Lambeau Field. Jordan Love’s 8-yard touchdown pass to Romeo Dobbs with 2:59 left was the difference.
Coming back to win from so many points down, so late in the game, stirs visions of epic gunslingers throwing their teams back into the lead. And there have been some of those, beginning with Bobby Layne outdueling Johnny Unitas in 1957, the first of these games on record.
“Unitas had dazzled Detroit with four touchdown passes, but his brilliant performance went for naught as the huge crowd rewarded Layne and ‘Hopalong’ Cassady with a standing ovation for minutes,” the Associated Press wrote then.
Cue John Facenda, but as the table below shows, these wacky one-off victories feature Gus Frerottes, Jeff Rutledges and Bobby Heberts as frequently as they feature the all-time greats. There’s Love at the top, the first quarterback since Mitch Trubisky in 2020 to add such a game to his ledger.
Love’s fourth-quarter stat line: 7-of-17 passing for 104 yards and the winning touchdown. Instead of facing Unitas on the other side, Green Bay finished against Jameis Winston, who had replaced the injured Derek Carr.
One reason Hall of Famers do not fill the table above: Top quarterbacks trail by large margins infrequently. Love’s predecessor, Aaron Rodgers, is 1-2 when trailing by 17 entering the fourth quarter. This was only the second time any Packers team came back to win from 17 or more down entering a fourth quarter. Green Bay did it despite missing five starters.
4. The Texans upset the Jaguars for their first victory under new coach DeMeco Ryans. Time to update the new coach scorecard.
First-year head coaches brought a combined 1-9 record into Week 3. They went 3-2, with all three victories over playoff teams from last season.
First-time coaches Shane Steichen, Ryans and Gannon are a combined 4-5. Second-time coaches Frank Reich and Payton are a combined 0-6.
Below we see where these coaches’ teams rank in EPA per game on offense, defense and special teams. We also see their records.
Before the season, when I polled NFL executives to rank teams in each conference, the feeling was that Houston would finish last in the AFC. The lone exec who ranked the Texans higher pointed to coaching.
“I think the Houston players will play for DeMeco Ryans,” this exec said. “I think DeMeco can win some close games maybe because of that in the end. Guys will not quit.”
Close games? How about a 37-17 victory at Jacksonville for Ryans’ first victory as an NFL head coach? With rookie C.J. Stroud at quarterback, Houston has scored 50 points on offense over the past two weeks, the most for the Texans over successive games since 2021 Weeks 15-16.
Ryans spoke afterward about all three phases contributing. The numbers back him up. Houston won the EPA battle on offense, defense and special teams. The Texans have accomplished that 19 times in 341 total franchise games. A blocked field goal try and recovery of a muffed punt helped Houston to a huge edge on special teams.
Four of the Texans’ past five three-phase victories came against Jacksonville. That is no shock given the Jaguars’ history, but it was surprising this time, given Jacksonville’s improvement. The table lays out those victories, showing how many points above expectation each unit contributed to the victories.
5. The Chargers named cornerback J.C. Jackson inactive after signing him to an $82.5 million contract 18 months ago. That makes this a good time revisit the 2022 class of highest-paid free agents.
The Chargers held on to beat the Vikings, 28-24, in a shootout that came down to the final play. They needed 18 receptions for 215 yards from Keenan Allen. They needed a stat line from quarterback Justin Herbert that seemed borrowed from a video game: 40-of-47 passing for 405 yards and three touchdowns.
Surely the Chargers could have used a top cornerback during a fourth quarter that saw Minnesota complete passes for 52 and 16 yards.
Eighteen months after the Chargers signed Jackson to a five-year, $82.5 million deal, the team named him inactive against the Vikings, despite Jackson not appearing on the injury report. The Vikings’ Kirk Cousins completed 32 of 50 passes for 367 yards and three touchdowns.
Jackson’s demotion invites a look at the highest-priced free-agent signings from the 2022 offseason. As the case was last week, when we stacked the highest-priced signings from 2023, there were notable misses.
Five of the 10 are starting for the teams that signed them: Christian Kirk, Brandon Scherff and Foyesade Oluokun for Jacksonville, along with Haason Reddick (Philadelphia) and Terron Armstead (Miami).
Two others would be starting for the teams that signed them, if not for injuries: Von Miller (Buffalo) and Marcus Williams (Baltimore).
Two others were traded: Za’Darius Smith (Minnesota to Cleveland) and Allen Robinson (Rams to Pittsburgh).
One is estranged from his team: Chandler Jones (Las Vegas).
As for Jackson?
“Yeah, just a coach’s decision,” the Chargers’ Brandon Staley said.
6. Two-minute drill: Brock Purdy a big upgrade from Jimmy Garoppolo?
The San Francisco 49ers are 3-0 for the 12th time in their history and for the second time under coach Kyle Shanahan. They’ve done it with Brock Purdy behind center, but with Shanahan doing such a good job coordinating the offense, and with such a talented roster, how much credit does the quarterback deserve? Purdy has missed some notable throws for potential big plays over the past couple of games, inviting criticism, but my Football GM Podcast co-host Randy Mueller, a three-time former NFL general manager, sees signs the 49ers have upgraded from Jimmy Garoppolo.
“Oh, I don’t think it’s even close,” Mueller said after the 49ers’ 30-12 victory against the New York Giants in Week 3. “I think you can see it in the way Kyle manages the game. Garoppolo is different when he gets pressured. He was pressured into mistake after mistake too often. … Kyle had to call plays different, he had to manage his plays different when Jimmy G was in there, and he doesn’t have to now. He can keep the throttle down. This kid can handle it.”
Garoppolo over his final two seasons with San Francisco had 13 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions and a 12.6 percent explosive pass rate when pressured. Purdy has seven touchdown passes, one interception and a 16.3 percent explosive pass rate when pressured during his 49ers career. Those totals are from Pro Football Focus charting and include playoff games.
We finally saw signs Sunday that the Cleveland Browns and Deshaun Watson could be making strides. Cleveland, a 27-3 winner at home against Tennessee, came out passing on early downs to a degree the team had not shown in the past with Watson (18 pass plays, eight rushes on early downs in the first 28 minutes). An early trick play seemed like a continuation of the team possibly trying to do too much, but it did not backfire. Watson was efficient (82 percent completions) and did not commit a turnover. …
Oddsmakers had kept the Jets ahead of the Patriots in AFC East handicapping even after Aaron Rodgers’ injury. The Patriots’ 15-10 victory over the Jets showed New York belongs in the fourth slot.
Jets fans wondering if the team could pry Kirk Cousins from the 0-3 Vikings are not wrong for dreaming. But as one exec put it, does what we learned about Cousins’ makeup in the Netflix “Quarterback” show make him seem eager to play in the nation’s most combative market? Cousins has a no-trade clause, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell likes and needs him, Rodgers has said he’s trying to return this season and, finally, Rodgers is the projected starter for 2024. There will be additional chances to revisit the situation, of course, with the Jets facing Kansas City next. …
The Vikings’ 11-0 record last season in one-score games set a record. Their 0-3 record in those games this season is a little more immediate regression than anticipated. …
Payton still owns the best offensive EPA game since 2000, according to TruMedia, but the Mike McDaniel-coached Dolphins own the No. 2 game after Sunday. Payton’s Saints were plus-44.0 EPA on offense during a 49-17 victory against the Cowboys in 2013 Week 10. That ranks first out of 12,416 regular-season and playoff performances since 2000. The Dolphins were plus-41.0 against the Broncos. On that note, we’ll close with a look at one of the better red-zone plays from Sunday.
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