My take on all of this House drama -- (edited)
Posted by
Fuzzy (aka mrfuzzy)
Oct 3 '23, 16:50
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What were the Dems thinking?
To a certain extent I think they were stuck with two lousy options. They could vote to support a speaker who was largely ineffective, didn't deal in good faith, was unable to stand up to the extremists in his caucus, and is essentially Trump's lapdog. Or they could side with the extremists and potentially plunge the government into chaos for some unknowable duration. In the end, I think it came down to McCarthy breaking the deal he made with them during the debt ceiling negotiations and then, after they bailed him out this Saturday, he went on the Sunday talk shows and accused them of trying to shut down the government. After all of that, there was no way they were going to save his bacon today. And they'll let Goetz take the "credit" for ousting him while they reap the political rewards of the GOP flailing for a bit.
What happens now?
I don't think this will last very long. Maybe the rest of this week but it wouldn't shock me at all for them to elect a new speaker tomorrow. The FC got what they wanted -- lots of attention, got rid of McCarthy, and successfully flexed their muscle. In their minds, the next speaker will now understand that they hold the power. What remains to be seen is whether or not the next speaker is a better politician than McCarthy is.
Although a power-sharing deal is possible between the Ds and Rs, it won't happen. The lessons of Liz Cheney are still too fresh in everyone's mind. However, someone who is willing to deal in good faith and able to occasionally stand up to the crazy caucus might be able to convince a few Dems that supporting him/her would be better than their other options.
Ultimately, I don't think this one will last long. But I also don't think this will be the last one of these. I predict we'll see at least one more attempt to vacate the chair, probably around the holidays. Maybe one more around the middle of next year, though I'm not sure that the House will have any other big decisions for the FC to get upset about next year.
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