ST Alpha - "economics is only slightly more predictive than phrenology. people aren't rational -- nm" (Reading a Post)

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economics is only slightly more predictive than phrenology. people aren't rational -- nm

Posted by hollywood big shot (aka pickmix) Jan 5 '24, 07:34

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Responses:

eh, as a whole they generally are in the economic sense. -- nm - mafic Jan 5, 09:50
I’ve always been a fan of reverse phrenology. - Znufrii, exceeds expectations Jan 5, 08:54
They should shut the fuck up until they work out some new models or whatever they need to be even slightly more accurate. - Krusty Jan 5, 07:42 6
- Again, I do think that stating a prediction that involves human behavior does inherently set up the conditions for it to be wrong. - Dano Jan 5, 08:19 1
  - Prediction and probability implies the idea that we get to rerun the experiment, which is hard to do with the economy. - Reagen Jan 5, 08:31
- Also, the media does a really shitty job reporting on it. The monthly series is very noisy and subject to revision, so is not even a solid indicator -- (edited) - Znufrii, exceeds expectations Jan 5, 08:15
- Any future looking predictions (in anything) are always going to be suspect. Nobody can really see the future. People try to read the current - pmb Jan 5, 08:02
- Unfortunately, it is human nature. "We" are always going to talk about the future. Whether fortune tellers or quants - JD Jan 5, 07:46 1
  - Sure, but we were all always right about movies. ;) -- nm - Volnelk Jan 5, 07:53
It is the generative AI of the social sciences. -- nm - Three Quark Baron Jan 5, 07:39

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