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In response to
"They should shut the fuck up until they work out some new models or whatever they need to be even slightly more accurate. "
by
Krusty
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Any future looking predictions (in anything) are always going to be suspect. Nobody can really see the future. People try to read the current
Posted by
pmb (aka pmb)
Jan 5 '24, 08:02
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circumstances, look to historical precedent and try to make comparisons. The disruption in the economy from covid was something a lot of economists got wrong (not all). I still think Paul Krugman is the best guy out there if only because when he's wrong he acknowledges it and tries to figure out what he got wrong. I saw another economist speak at a conference in mid-November and he showed how historical precedent was that we were heading to a big recession. This was to a room full of bankers and investors. It was like gloom and doom took over the room. So somebody basically asks how deep the recession will be and he says he expects it to be short and very shallow if even a recession (so basically the soft landing that is the ideal result). So some of it is just presentation (and I think political agenda). In any event, I suggest following Krugman. He gives understandable explanations and examines all sides (even if he's not always right).
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