Kiley at ESPN ranks MLB farm systems...
Posted by
David (aka David)
Feb 2 '24, 11:21
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"Now that we have ranked the top 100 MLB prospects heading into the 2024 season, let's see how all 30 major league farm systems compare.
While it's nice to have baseball's best farm system, it is still one degree removed from what franchises really want: wins at the major league level. Because of that, it's important to remember that some teams near the bottom of these farm system rankings are there because they're either winning all the time (often subtracting prospects as often as they're adding them) or have recently graduated a bunch of young core players and are waiting on the next group. Those are both great outcomes and how this is supposed to work.
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These rankings of all 30 organizations were done, for the most part, the same way as my previous versions. While at FanGraphs, research by Craig Edwards (who now works for the MLB Players Association) revealed empirical surplus dollar values for each future value tier of prospect, so we can now make an objective ranking of farm systems derived from my individual team lists, which will be published next week.
A benefit of this approach is that you can use your own judgment to disagree with a ranking if, say, a team has $500,000 more talent but the lower-ranked team has prospects of the sort you prefer. This gives you the tools to see exactly how close every team is and a more granular view of what their players are like, compared to the other 29 teams.
So just how bright does the future look for your favorite MLB team?
1. Baltimore Orioles ($371 million)
Last year: 1st, $466 million
Top 100 prospects: 6
This is now the fifth year that I've done this prospect rankings package, including the farm rankings. It has covered the rise, peak and now slight decline of the Orioles' farm system. You might be chortling at how being my top-rated farm system by $43 million is the beginning of the decline, but in this case it is:
2020: 17th-ranked ($211 million) "in the middle of a top-down rebuild."
2021: 8th-ranked ($256 million) "starting to see some results of their rebuild."
2022: Top-ranked ($344 million) "Elias appears to have taken what worked from the Astros while leaving behind the stuff nobody wanted."
2023: Top-ranked ($466 million) "in line with recent top farm systems ... the best ... [were] just above $500 million."
So, the number is a bit lower this year while also helped greatly by the top prospect in baseball, Jackson Holliday, who is worth $112 million and has a good shot to graduate by June, so the O's will fall around more than other clubs around that time. At that point, San Diego, which isn't graduating any of its top prospects, should be in a dead heat with Baltimore for No. 1.
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This is all very in the weeds but I bring it up because it'll be noteworthy when the Orioles finally lose the top spot. Holliday continues a borderline unbelievable streak: The Orioles have had the best prospect in baseball for the past three seasons with Gunnar Henderson in 2023, Adley Rutschman in 2022 and almost did it a fourth time because Rutschman was second in 2021.
You can read the other four linked previous rankings for some details about how this happened and how I perceived the progress, including how I don't love the top-down rebuild as a strategy even though O's general manager Mike Elias seems to have mastered it. Baltimore is drafting and developing well, mixing in some effective trades and now getting real results in the international market.
It was striking how much of a type the Orioles had for a few years (power first, some defensive/athletic value, Baltimore then teases out enough contact/walks to make it all work) and right when I thought I had them pegged, they took the exact opposite sort of player in the first round of last summer's draft: a slashing, 80-grade runner in Enrique Bradfield Jr.
I had already written this blurb before news broke about the new ownership group and the Corbin Burnes trade; yes the farm rankings figures are updated. This week might have signaled the beginning of the new era of Orioles baseball where the focus is trying to win baseball games this year, not being afraid to add some payroll for an upgrade that isn't locked up well into their 30s and then secondarily, also setting things up for the future.
2. Chicago Cubs ($328 million)
Last year: 11th, $220.5 million
Top 100 prospects: 5
The Cubs have had a steady upward climb up these rankings in recent years as they've made a more concerted effort to add young players while also improving their scouting and development processes:
2020: 24th
2021: 22nd
2022: 19th
2023: 11th
2023, post draft and trade deadline: 2nd
Pete Crow-Armstrong is actually the prospect who Mets fans should regret giving up on too early more than Jarred Kelenic. Taking Cade Horton with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2022 draft after he was a third-round type in March seemed very bold at the time, but has quickly become one of the best picks in the entire draft. Jordan Wicks did something rarely seen by developing more stuff after being a command-first pitcher in college. Like Crow-Armstrong, Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara were also acquired in trades while in the lower minors. Matt Shaw and James Triantos were both strong value picks in the draft, and the Cubs just signed one of the top players in the international class in shortstop Fernando Cruz. Add it all up and you have both top-100 level talent at the top and solid depth throughout the system.
The Cubs are currently right on the edge of projecting to get a 2024 MLB playoff spot, so adding a free agent like Cody Bellinger or Matt Chapman could make a big difference. But there is also plenty of youth ready to make a difference at Wrigley: Crow-Armstrong, Wicks, Michael Busch and Alexander Canario are all prospects with Opening Day big league roles. Also keep an eye on Horton and Ben Brown (and maybe Shaw, Caissie or Triantos if they get red hot) to show up in the second half and possibly push the Cubs into a playoff spot, even if they don't make a late winter free agency splash.
3. Detroit Tigers ($318 million)
Last year: 21st, $154 million
Top 100 prospects: 6
I was critical of the Tigers' choice at the top of the 2021 MLB draft. My top two prospects were high school shortstops and both were on the board for the third overall pick due to bonus pool shenanigans, but the Tigers instead took a prep right-hander and paid him nearly $7 million. Now that right-hander, Jackson Jobe (10th on the Top 100), is just ahead of those two prep shortstops: Jordan Lawlar (17th) and Marcelo Mayer (28th). That decision did look awful when Jobe struggled early in his pro career -- and could still ultimately be the wrong choice -- but departed general manager Al Avila and his scouting staff would deserve praise if this projection does hold. As I've written about at length, taking prep pitchers that high is the wrong choice about 90% of the time but teams still do it to try to land an ace; Jobe could now be that.
Detroit's new administration had a strong draft in 2023, landing Max Clark and my pick to click Kevin McGonigle. Some gains in the system -- led by Colt Keith, Jace Jung, Parker Meadows, Ty Madden, Keider Montero, Brant Hurter and Troy Melton -- give some hope to a fanbase that hasn't seen the org crack .500 since 2016. Of the graduated potential cornerstone players now in the majors, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Tarik Skubal look like the yesses while Kerry Carpenter, Matt Manning, Reese Olson, Casey Mize, and Alex Lange are the maybes. If Keith and Meadows can assert themselves into that first group in the first half of 2024, and Jobe arrives in the second half, it'll be much easier to see how this plan can come together for a homegrown contending club.
4. San Diego Padres ($284 million)
Last year: 23rd, $151 million
Top 100 prospects: 6
Say what you will about general manager A.J. Preller's struggles to get the on-field results to match the talent on the major league roster, but he knows how to build up a farm system. In the 2021 MLB draft, the Padres picked 27th and 62nd overall. This draft ended up including the eighth, 10th, 11th, 12th and 16th-ranked prospects on this week's Top 100 (in the minors). Of those five elite prospects in the draft, only two made it past the 22nd overall pick -- and the Padres got them both, landing the 11th and 12th best prospects in baseball (James Wood and Jackson Merrill) with those 27th and 62nd overall picks in 2021. Wood eventually became the headliner to land Juan Soto. The best players from the last two international signing classes? Yep, the Padres signed both and they're both on the Top 100 already: Ethan Salas and Leodalis de Vries.
I mentioned in the Orioles blurb that the top three farm systems all project to lose some of their best prospects by midseason (that's typical), while the Padres likely won't graduate any of theirs by midseason. That means if things play out as expected, the Padres have a good chance of having the best farm system in baseball as the draft and trade deadline approach. My bold prediction is that Merrill will see big league time in the summer, so the Pads may see him, Drew Thorpe and Jairo Iriarte, possibly Jakob Marsee, Robby Snelling, Graham Pauley or even Salas, as late-season talent infusions. He didn't make this year's Top 100, but keep an eye on Dillon Head, the Padres' first pick in the 2023 draft: I think he'll be comfortably on the list by the summer.
5. Milwaukee Brewers ($276 million)
Last year: 15th, $128.5 million
Top 100 prospects: 6
The Brewers are right up there with the Rays as teams that have mastered the playbook of competing for a playoff spot annually with a bottom-tier payroll. That's not super surprising as Brewers general manager Matt Arnold worked in Tampa Bay before going to Milwaukee. Given the run of success in Milwaukee, it is also not surprising that the Brewers' last head of baseball ops, David Stearns, was one of the biggest free agent prizes this winter -- ascending above the various former Rays front office people now making decisions around the league.
Top 100 prospects by team
Which franchises have the most players on our list?
6: Brewers, Mets, Orioles, Padres, Reds, Tigers, Yankees
5: Cubs, Dodgers
4: Guardians, Pirates, Giants, Rays
3: D-backs, Mariners, Nationals, Rangers, Red Sox, Twins, White Sox
2: Cardinals, Phillies, Rockies
1: Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins
0: Angels, Royals
Note: This reflects Orioles-Brewers trade that sent No. 91 Joey Ortiz to Milwaukee
I point all that out to say the Brewers are at a crossroads right now, though both options are still pretty good. They have lost Josh Hader, Brandon Woodruff and now Corbin Burnes. Willy Adames is set to hit free agency after the season with Devin Williams following in 2025. Odds are now that zero or one of those players will get a long-term deal to return, so the Brewers need another wave of young talent to fill the gaps soon to be left behind.
Some of those players are already in the majors: Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Abner Uribe and Brice Turang all graduated from prospect status in 2023 as did new acquisition DL Hall. And this year, Milwaukee will get a likely Rookie of the Year run from the No. 2-ranked prospect in baseball, the newly extended Jackson Chourio and they should also get most or all of a rookie season of the other player in the Burnes trade, the 91st-ranked player on my Top 100, Joey Ortiz.
What makes this system so good is that there are also four more Top 100 prospects (Jeferson Quero, Jacob Misiorowski, Tyler Black and Brock Wilken) that will be in the upper minors this season, with Mike Boeve, Robert Gasser, Eric Brown Jr., Luis Lara, Bradley Blalock, and Luke Adams not far behind on talent or timeline.
That adds up to 18 players with average big leaguer or better upside who will open in High-A or higher and have a 2023-2025 MLB debut window. And that is without even getting into the intriguing younger wave of recent international and high school acquisitions (another interesting thing the Brewers are doing; more in their team prospect rankings) a year or two behind this group. Oh, and Milwaukee won the NL Central last year and has either finished first or second in the division or made the playoffs for seven straight seasons.
6. New York Yankees ($252 million)
Last year: 4th, $277 million
Top 100 prospects: 6
The Yankees are aggressive and successful internationally, which is how half of their top dozen prospects were acquired. The rest of that group is comprised of domestic draft picks, two of them picked after the fifth round.
Those two sentences basically tell you everything you need to know about the approach of Brian Cashman: Rely on the scouting and development groups, often without top-tier picks or bonus pools, to find good players because he's going to trade a lot of them away to fill major league needs. That's probably how it should be for a team like the Yankees, but it's also what makes their spot on this list quite impressive.
The Yankees now have the challenge of trying to integrate six young position players into prominent roles over the next two seasons to set them up for the next decade while also running high payrolls and looking to win at the highest level. How that transition goes for Anthony Volpe (he's mostly done it), Jasson Dominguez, Spencer Jones, Austin Wells, Everson Pereira and Oswald Peraza -- along with Will Warren and Chase Hampton on the mound -- might determine the lasting legacy of the Cashman era.
7. Tampa Bay Rays ($249 million)
Last year: 7th, $255.5 million
Top 100 prospects: 4
Death, Taxes and the Rays having a good farm system. Tampa Bay was No. 1 in these rankings in both 2020 and 2021 before the Orioles stole the top spot, and the Rays haven't been below seventh in the five rankings I've done for ESPN.
One thing that is interesting to watch play out with his franchise: The Rays will get on specific kicks, sometimes by accident and other times because they found a soft spot in the market. Making trades for international players before their own teams truly know what they have is one that has paid off of late: I mentioned in Junior Caminero's top 100 write-up that Tampa Bay is often very early, if not first, to scout opposing organizations' Dominican Summer League teams. Curtis Mead (No. 47 in my Top 100) was acquired from the Phillies just 46 pro games after signing from Australia. The Rays have also been aggressive in giving seven-figure draft bonuses to first baseman at a time when other teams are avoiding that type of player -- Kyle Manzardo (now a Guardian) and Xavier Isaac have worked out from this strategy with Tre' Morgan a possibility to join them. Tampa Bay has also always been willing to bet on high upside prep position players with Carson Williams (No. 13 on the Top 100) the latest hit and 2023 draftee Adrian Santana having all the makings of another one.
8. Los Angeles Dodgers ($247 million)
Last year: 6th, $265 million
Top 100 prospects: 5
The Dodgers' free agent spending this winter has become enough of a storyline that people might soon forget the Dodgers went a long time not giving out megadeals under this management, instead surviving due to strong decision-making and an excellent scouting and development machine. Here's the scary part for the rest of MLB: The system's pitching depth is positively wacky -- at just the right time for the big league team -- led by a Double-A pitching staff that might have had a dozen big leaguers on it (Nick Frasso, River Ryan and Kyle Hurt are the best ones that are still in the org and prospect eligible). And after a couple of iffy classes, the international scouting group is dropping bangers of late, headlined by Josue De Paula, Joendry Vargas, Eduardo Quintero and Oswaldo Osorio with a deep tier just below them.
Since the Dodgers' top three prospects will all likely retain their prospect status and a couple players from that international group will likely rocket up the rankings, keep an eye on this as a potential top-five system at this point next year -- provided they don't make some big trades to help that big-money MLB roster.
9. Minnesota Twins ($241 million)
Will Brooks Lee become the latest prospect to make an impact in the Twins' infield? Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Last year: 17th, $191.5 million
Top 100 prospects: 3
It seems like every season as part of a plan, the Twins are integrating a couple of rookies in the beginning of the year and then a few more join them by the end of the year. Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner and Jose Miranda were the main additions in 2023. This year it isn't as clear if any rookie will be in a big role on Opening Day, but Brooks Lee (the fourth infielder I've mentioned here, thus the recent Jorge Polanco trade) is the leading candidate with a number of role player lingering in the upper levels (Austin Martin, David Festa, Matt Canterino, Cory Lewis) along with some high upside types who could become an option in the second half (Emmanuel Rodriguez, Marco Raya). Players from the last two drafts and international signing classes litter the lower minors and given the solid indicators in that group, I'd bet on one or two breakouts.
10. Cincinnati Reds ($237 million)
Last year: 5th, $276.5 million
Top 100 prospects: 6
The Reds will probably always run a payroll in the bottom half of the league under their current ownership, so they need the farm system to deliver to compete for a playoff spot. Cincinnati got closer to making the postseason than anyone expected in 2023, with a great group of rookies leading the way -- and it looks like it may have another few years of solid rookie crops ready to follow.
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On the hitting side, there's star power at the top and so many players arriving in the majors that finding a place to play them all will be a real challenge in Cincinnati. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Will Benson and T.J. Friedl graduated from my rankings in 2023 with Noelvi Marte set to join them. Deeper in the system, Sal Stewart, Edwin Arroyo, Cam Collier and Ricardo Cabrera are at different stages of development behind them.
The Reds have a ton of pitching depth that just arrived in the majors (Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft, Nick Lodolo) behind headliner Hunter Greene, with more pitchers who should be graduating in 2024 (Connor Phillips, Lyon Richardson) or in 2025 (Rhett Lowder, Chase Petty, Ty Floyd). That group of pitchers plus closer Alexis Diaz and a veteran addition or two should be enough to be competitive, though it is hard to say when that many young arms will come into their own. It will take patience, but all the pieces for success are already in the org and we're starting to see the results.
11. New York Mets ($235 million)
Last year: 12th, $204 million
Top 100 prospects: 6
I was surprised how boldly former general manager Billy Eppler pivoted when spending big with even bigger expectations didn't work out for the Mets in 2023. The decision to trade away Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and David Robertson before the deadline paid off for the future, though, returning three Top 100 prospects and another who could join the list in Marco Vargas.
Those acquisitions came at a time when this system was already on the upswing because it has brought in talent both domestically and internationally while focusing on adding players, rather than trading them away to contend. After graduating Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos to the majors, the Mets are poised to see Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, Luisangel Acuna, Ronny Mauricio and Ryan Clifford follow by the 2025 All-Star break, which will give the major league team nearly an entire lineup of solid everyday players for the league minimum. After coming to the Mets from the Brewers, relying on integrating and developing a young wave of talent to build his next contender should feel familiar to new president of baseball operations David Stearns.
12. Texas Rangers ($228 million)
Last year: 8th, $230.5 million
Top 100 prospects: 3
I don't totally understand how the top player on my 2023 MLB draft board fell to the Rangers at No. 4 overall. These sorts of things are happening more often now so maybe I shouldn't be surprised, but Wyatt Langford is going to be a star. Evan Carter has already proved that he's a very good big leaguer at the least while Sebastian Walcott could be a top-10 prospect in baseball by midseason.
Beyond those three top prospects, the Rangers have a lot of depth that seems to fall in three specific buckets: hasn't quite lived up to expectations (Jack Leiter, Brock Porter, Kumar Rocker, Cole Winn), should be good, but not great (Justin Foscue, Jonathan Ornelas, Owen White, Abimelec Ortiz) and has a good tool or two (Emiliano Teodo, Marc Church, Maximo Acosta, Ian Moller).
13. Boston Red Sox ($223 million)
Last year: 14th, $196.5 million
Top 100 prospects: 3
Ownership has made it clear that the Red Sox are purely a business and that going above the CBT line is not part of their business plan. That means the farm system will be counted on more than in recent years with the success of the scouting and development group providing reasons for optimism: Triston Casas, Brayan Bello and Jarren Duran look like core players among recent prospect graduates (you might include a few more players) and there should be a couple more coming from the group of Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel and Ceddanne Rafaela.
Right now on the major league roster, only Rafael Devers is projected for 3+ WAR though, and the second-best projection belongs to a player with 0.1 career WAR in Vaughn Grissom. I don't know exactly how this puzzle gets solved, but I'm not blaming the scouts and coaches.
14. Pittsburgh Pirates ($222 million)
Last year: 9th, $230 million
Top 100 prospects: 4
Now entering the fifth season under general manager Ben Cherington, the Pirates haven't made the playoffs since 2015. Adding young talent has been the primary focus for this entire front office, and Pittsburgh is still in the bottom third of the league in terms of expected wins while also being 29th in payroll. The good news is a much-needed core of above-average big leaguers is developing with Oneil Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Henry Davis and Liover Peguero capable of making up more than half of a contention-worthy lineup with Paul Skenes possibly joining Mitch Keller at the top of the rotation soon.
Outside of Skenes, there is a group of former seven-figure draft bonus types like Termarr Johnson, Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones, Thomas Harrington and Anthony Solometo whose development will go a long way in deciding how much things are really looking up in Pittsburgh.
15. San Francisco Giants ($207 million)
Last year: 20th, $174.5 million
Top 100 prospects: 4
The Giants' farm system had a great 2023, graduating Patrick Bailey and Luis Matos to the majors with Marco Luciano and Kyle Harrison on their heels and seeing notable gains from Carson Whisenhunt, Reggie Crawford, Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong and Wade Meckler. I also liked their 2023 draft class, headlined by two first round talents in Bryce Eldridge and Walker Martin.
San Francisco is sitting somewhere in the middle third of the league in both major league payroll and expected record, so having Luciano and Harrison turn into core players with Whisenhunt and Black getting to the big leagues this year could change the math for contention in a tough NL West.
16. Washington Nationals ($203 million)
Last year: 13th, $197 million
Top 100 prospects: 3
General manager Mike Rizzo got a contract extension this year, which is a vote of confidence from ownership that he can complete making this rebuild into a contender like he did previously by reaching the playoffs five times in his first 10 years, punctuated by winning a World Series in 2019. Washington is just turning the corner now, with about a half-dozen solid young players on the big league team and a top-heavy farm system with many of the system's best prospects now in the upper minors.
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Dylan Crews, James Wood, Brady House, Robert Hassell and Daylen Lile should all be in the upper minors this year, with debuts likely coming in 2024 or 2025. If two of those players -- likely from those first three names -- can be big league stars, then things are probably headed in the right direction. There's another wave behind them in the lower minors (Elijah Green, Jarlin Susana, Yohandy Morales, Cristhian Vaquero, Travis Sykora and Victor Hurtado) that all could have star upside. This farm system is starting to look like it did when Rizzo was building that 2019 championship core if you squint, so 2024 is a key year for this group to come into focus.
17. Seattle Mariners ($200 million)
Last year: 29th, $108 million
Top 100 prospects: 3
Seattle is in going-for-it mode in terms of subtracting rather than adding prospects, even if its major league payroll doesn't seem to suggest it wants to win all that badly. The good news is the Mariners' farm system has been very productive on all fronts and they appear to have found an edge in the draft that allows them to improve the MLB team via trade while keeping the best prospects for themselves.
Colt Emerson is the biggest arrow-up guy from the 2023 draft -- yet another post-draft arrow-up prep position player in a system that also has recently selected Harry Ford, Edwin Arroyo (since traded to the Reds) and Cole Young. The Mariners feel good enough about their ability to hit here that they grabbed Jonny Farmelo, Tai Peete and Aidan Smith from that player demographic in last year's draft. After the success of Noelvi Marte and Julio Rodriguez as high-dollar international signings, the Mariners also added Felnin Celesten, Lazaro Montes and Dawel Joseph.
This system isn't flush with top-notch pitching but only because they seem to be hunting for hitters at high picks and recently graduated George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, and Matt Brash, giving them an abundance of young major league pitching to the point where most of the league is trying (or should be) to trade for one of those players.
18. St. Louis Cardinals ($193 million)
Will rocket-armed Masyn Winn lock up the Opening Day shortstop job in St. Louis this spring? AP Photo/Julio Cortez
Last year: 10th, $228 million
Top 100 prospects: 2
The organization that always seems to figure it out had its first sub-.500 season since 2007. It wasn't a huge drop-off in talent that we could see coming for years and instead was the result of some poorly timed bad seasons, young players who were below replacement level and other stuff that can be fixed as quickly as the next season.
Jordan Walker, Ivan Herrera, Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman have all graduated, impacted the lineup to varying degrees and should be counted on going forward alongside a solid veteran position player core, along with top prospect Masyn Winn, the leader in the clubhouse to be St. Louis' Opening Day shortstop. Victor Scott and Thomas Saggese just missed the Top 100 and aren't much further behind on the position player side, so the core competency of the org is doing what it needs to do.
The issue I had with the Cardinals' MLB roster construction last year was having a rotation of over 30-year-old innings-eater pitchers. That's still mostly the case and also where the farm system is needed to upgrade, but the org is tending to target pitchers with fastball shapes that aren't as conducive to getting swings and misses. Tink Hence and Tekoah Roby are the best options internally but are late 2024 or early 2025 MLB arrivals who are more No. 3 or No. 4 starters than future aces to me. I may suggest a trade with a team that has big league pitching depth -- like Seattle -- to balance things out.
19. Cleveland Guardians ($187 million)
Last year: 3rd, $311 million
Top 100 prospects: 4
The Guardians were one of the only other teams regularly capable of executing ballin' on the budget strategy the Rays have mastered -- regularly competing with a bottom third payroll -- then Cleveland won 76 games in 2023. But one down year doesn't invalidate the front office's ability, and there is a fresh crop of young players who are now ready for big league roles in Cleveland and with the good versions of Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, this looks like a playoff team again with another emerging core.
Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Steven Kwan, Tyler Freeman and Bo Naylor are the recent graduates from prospect status of note -- but I'd also guess that Kyle Manzardo and Brayan Rocchio graduate from my rankings by midseason with George Valera, Juan Brito and Angel Martinez all likely to debut in 2024 along with intriguing Rule 5 pick Deyvison De Los Santos.
Deeper in the minors, Daniel Espino (when healthy) is arguably the best pitching prospect in the minors and should be getting back on a mound this season while their top prospect Chase DeLauter is on track to arrive late in 2024 or more likely in 2025.
20. Chicago White Sox ($172 million)
Last year: 25th, $137 million
Top 100 prospects: 3
The White Sox turned the page on one incarnation of their major league team by trading Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly and Jake Burger. Dylan Cease and Yoan Moncada remain as the last two core players whose contracts end in the next two seasons, so Chicago is building back up with a farm system on the upswing.
Colson Montgomery could be in Chicago by the second half of 2024 and followed the next season by a number of potential everyday players and rotation candidates. Lefty Noah Schultz is the other prospect with a real shot to be a core player -- with some Chris Sale vibes about him -- but he has only thrown 27 pro innings. The farm system still needs more depth and quality to project another contending team coming soon, but that should continue as new general manager Chris Getz appears to be in young player addition mode.
21. Arizona Diamondbacks ($168 million)
Last year: 2nd, $354.5 million
Top 100 prospects: 3
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This system has been hit hard by graduations to the major leagues who became key contributors to last year's World Series team, including NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno, Brandon Pfaadt and Alek Thomas. Jordan Lawlar is a top-20 prospect in the game and may also join that group of major league regulars soon after making his debut late last season.
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There is another wave coming from the low minors who may backfill -- headlined by infielders Jansel Luis and Ruben Santana may backfill and I'm on board for the Druw Jones turnaround.
This year's system ranking is mostly a byproduct of graduating prospects that are now the core of a solid big league team, and I'm sure Arizona would rather have last October's playoff series wins than a better place on my list.
22. Colorado Rockies ($161 million)
Last year: 16th, $192 million
Top 100 prospects: 2
The Rockies have been hard to pin down of late in terms of big picture strategy, and they had five notable pitchers (three prospects, two pitchers in the big league rotation) go down with Tommy John surgery last season, but they've been doing a pretty good job of developing position players.
Adael Amador, Yanquiel Fernandez, Sterlin Thompson, Dyan Jorge and Robert Calaz were clear arrow-up prospects while Cole Carrigg from the 2023 draft class is intriguing and former high picks Drew Romo and Jordan Beck at least held serve last season. I don't see a path to contending soon, particularly in the NL West, but these players could make up a solid big league core starting in 2025.
23. Philadelphia Phillies ($158 million)
Will 2024 be the year talented pitching prospect Mick Abel puts it all together for the Phillies? Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire
Last year: 24th, $143.5 million
Top 100 prospects: 2
The Phillies are counting on getting at least one frontline starter to join Aaron Nola and (pending free agent) Zack Wheeler in their big league rotation from the prospect duo of Andrew Painter (returning from elbow surgery this summer) and Mick Abel (high-octane stuff but command that isn't ready yet).
The Phillies also have a solid group of high-upside position players with 2024 breakout potential in Justin Crawford, Aidan Miller, Starlyn Caba, Bryan Rincon and Eduardo Tait. There is a steady flow of young players getting to the big leagues here, and both the domestic and amateur scouting groups are above average.
24. Toronto Blue Jays ($126 million)
Last year: 22nd, $152 million
Top 100 prospects: 1
The Jays are ranked here for now as their top two prospects -- left-handed pitcher Ricky Tiedemann and third baseman Orelvis Martinez -- add up to $57 million in prospect value but will likely both graduate over the summer, taking Toronto into contention for the worst farm system in baseball if there aren't big improvements. The Jays do have two upside prep picks in left-handed pitcher Brandon Barriera and shortstop Arjun Nimmala along with a recent international signee in outfielder Enmanuel Bonilla that may be a solid prospect as well, but outside of those three this system has a lot of contact-first, lower-impact hitters and solid depth pitchers rather than potential impact players.
25. Oakland Athletics ($112 million)
Last year: 19th, $184 million
Top 100 prospects: 1
The A's have completed their teardown -- trading stars like Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Sean Murphy before their team control expired -- and making the big league product a punchline, to say nothing of their owner. They've also graduated a wave of the prospects acquired in those trades along with recent draft picks -- a group that includes Ken Waldichuk, Tyler Soderstrom, Mason Miller, Zack Gelof, Kyle Muller, Esteury Ruiz, Shea Langeliers and Ryan Noda. Those players give the franchise a young core in the majors, but it isn't clear yet which of those players will be above-average regulars, much less any potential stars to build this next version of the team around, eventually in Las Vegas.
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I wasn't sure right-handed pitcher Luis Morales ($3 million at age 20) was the right international signing, but he's now their lone Top 100 prospect. The 2021 draft class continues to look very strong, but, while I like individual players from their 2023 draft class, I didn't like the value of the selections on the whole. This is an important season in terms of potential breakouts for young big leaguers and/or steps forward from the system to bring this group from simply being a lot of young players to a clearer group of impact ones.
26. Kansas City Royals ($89 million)
Last year: 28th, $113 million
Top 100 prospects: 0
I'll try my best not to be mean here, but I can't break down the Royals' weak system (no prospects in my top 125) as a function of a competitive team that's going for it or a temporary down cycle after a bunch of prospects have graduated. There are some solid prospects who I think will be decent big leaguers or have a chance to break through to make my Top 100, but there just hasn't been enough talent coming into the system or improving once they enter it.
Cole Ragans was a big win for the pro scouting staff last season, and recent international signee Yandel Ricardo could be a win for the international department, but I'm hoping to see more examples of that in 2024.
27. Houston Astros ($88 million)
Last year: 27th, $116.5 million
Top 100 prospects: 1
I'll continue pointing out that the two teams run by former Braves execs (Dana Brown and Perry Minasian) and the Braves themselves are three of the bottom four farms in baseball, alongside a team that just switched management. I'm not sure that means anything, but it could underline either a strategy or just where each team is in their competitive cycle.
I really liked the value the Astros were able to get while usually drafting late recently (landing players like Ryan Clifford, Drew Gilbert, Zach Dezenzo, Jacob Melton, Brice Matthews, Zach Cole, Colton Gordon and Chayce McDermott) under scouting director Kris Gross, who recently took a promotion with the Mets while Houston is now run by a recently former scouting head that helped build the Braves under Brown.
Losing Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, and Jeremy Pena to the big league team while trading Gilbert and Clifford for Justin Verlander were tough blows to a system that's in a down cycle to support the big league club, but looks primed to rise next season.
28. Atlanta Braves ($87 million)
Last year: 30th, $44 million
Top 100 prospects: 1
Like Baltimore, the Braves have run the gamut of farm system rankings in the five years I've been doing these rankings for ESPN.com. They went from third in 2020 to 13th in 2021 to 27th in 2022 to 30th last year. I have to point out that Atlanta's graduated/traded talent in this span might be the best in baseball -- Spencer Strider, Michael Harris, Shea Langeliers, Bryce Elder, Ian Anderson, Vaughn Grissom -- and that is the actual reason for having a farm system.
As I say above, players in the Top 100 drive value these rankings, the Braves have about eight players -- mostly recent draftees along with a few international signees -- with paths to jumping onto next year's list and that would begin the next cycle of Atlanta moving up this list.
29. Miami Marlins ($82 million)
Last year: 18th, $185.5 million
Top 100 prospects: 1
There have been solid recent graduations in Miami, with Eury Perez, Max Meyer, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera all either in the big league rotation or expected to join soon. I also liked the bold decision Miami made to take the top two prep pitchers in the 2023 draft -- Noble Meyer and Thomas White -- along with thumpers Kemp Alderman and Brock Vradenburg soon after.
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But there have also been some clear negative results in the system as of late. Dax Fulton was progressing well but got his second elbow surgery, Marco Vargas was traded to the Mets for a rental reliever (though the Fish made the playoffs), and there wasn't a notable jump forward in the system with a number of half or full steps back. After coming from the Rays, new President of Baseball Ops Peter Bendix will likely take an infrastructure-and-process oriented view to building things back up and there's a good bit of work to be done.
30. Los Angeles Angels ($66 million)
Last year: 26th, $134.5 million
Top 100 prospects: 0
The Angels haven't made the playoffs since 2014 and haven't won a playoff game since 2009. Shohei Ohtani just moved across town and Mike Trout has missed more games than he's played in the past three seasons. In an effort to make the 2023 playoffs, they traded a 50 FV prospect who just missed my Top 100 in center Edgar Quero along with a few other solid prospects, then when it became clear they wouldn't make the playoffs (they missed by 16 games), the Halos put a bunch of good players on waivers to sneak under the luxury tax (they barely did).
If they had Quero & Co. from last summer's trades they would be out of the basement here, but just by a spot or two. While Zach Neto, Logan O'Hoppe and Ben Joyce have recently graduated and become important big league pieces, with Nolan Schanuel to join them soon, there just hasn't been enough incoming/improving talent to make this project work."
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