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May 28 '24, 10:35
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Chris Herring, ESPN Senior Writer
May 28, 2024, 08:00 AM ET
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With the NBA Finals just days away, 28 other teams have now shifted their focus solely on preparing for next season, starting with what could be a wild free agency period and offseason. As they watch the final two teams fight for the Larry O'Brien Trophy, each is trying to figure out what tweaks (or overhauls) are necessary to reach the winner-take-all stage that's about to unfold.
With free agency just 33 days away, here are 10 blockbuster trades and moves teams should make to address their organizational shortcomings and roster holes.
Philadelphia 76ers sign LeBron James
After yet another early playoff exit -- and another campaign in which superstar big man Joel Embiid dealt with injury issues -- Philadelphia needs to add a big star in hopes of taking the next step in its evolution.
ESPN's Brian Windhorst reported the Sixers would love to add nine-time All-Star and two-way wing Paul George, who so far has seemed lukewarm on the prospect of staying with the LA Clippers. ("Yeah, if it works that way, absolutely," he said when asked about the potential of signing to play with Kawhi Leonard and James Harden long term.)
But what if Philly landed LeBron instead?
It would require James to opt out of the one year and $51.4 million he has left on his Lakers deal (Rich Paul already referred to James as a free agent during a Western Conference finals broadcast last week). After a season in which both he and Anthony Davis were the healthiest they've been as a duo since teaming up in 2019-20, James might feel like there isn't enough upside to win another title with the purple and gold.
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If he reaches that conclusion, he could do far worse than the Sixers, who not only have a boatload of cap space (they could offer James a max of three years for $157 million) but also Embiid, the 2022-23 MVP, and 23-year-old speedster Tyrese Maxey, who will be a restricted free agent this summer, meaning the 76ers can match any offer made to him. James made a point to praise Maxey earlier this postseason on his "Mind the Game" podcast with JJ Redick. "You can't get a hold of him [defensively] because the motherf---er don't get tired," James said of Maxey, who played in his first All-Star Game in February. (Another thing not to be ignored: The Sixers have the No. 41 pick in this year's draft, and they could theoretically use it to take James' son Bronny.)
James would be replacing Tobias Harris, who never panned out as a third or fourth option in Philly and likely closed out his Sixers tenure with a scoreless performance when Philly got eliminated by the Knicks in the first round of the 2024 playoffs. James creates far more offense on his own than Harris, who too often stands in the corner. Just 34.8% of James' buckets from inside the arc this postseason were assisted, while 62.5% of Harris's 2s stemmed from the courtesy of a teammate. James is also coming off the best perimeter shooting season of his career (41%); one in which he tweaked his shot to square his shoulders with the basket better.
James would also help the Sixers play faster, particularly if and when the plodding Embiid isn't on the floor. James finished second in the NBA in fast-break points with 363. Not far down on the list, in fifth, was Maxey, with 280.
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2:24
Why Stephen A. doesn't see LeBron testing free agencyStephen A. Smith breaks down why LeBron James will stay with the Lakers this offseason.
Oklahoma City Thunder sign Klay Thompson
Throughout the second half of their season, a number of teams -- Houston one night, Phoenix another -- boldly showed the Thunder they were going to dare third-year guard wing Josh Giddey to shoot by leaving him wide open at the arc.
The logic was simple: With Oklahoma City, one of the league's most unguardable teams because of its spacing, you have to pick your poison. The solution, opposing teams hoped, was to more or less ignore Giddey, who's been a subpar 3-point shooter throughout his career.
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That was the test OKC knew it would face come playoff time. It didn't matter as much against the overmatched Pelicans. But the Dallas Mavericks, who had the league's best defense for the final 15 games of the season, tightened the screws. In that semifinal round, Oklahoma City scored a paltry 95.5 points per 100 possessions with Giddey playing (a rate that would've ranked worst in the league among regular-season offenses); with him benched, the offense surged to 116.5 points per 100 possessions (a rate that would've ranked in the NBA's top 10 offenses). As such, Giddey's playing time diminished as the series went on and coach Mark Daigneault resorted to bringing him off the bench for Games 5 and 6.
All of which explains why a knockdown shooter like Thompson would make a lot of sense here. Devastating injuries have sapped the lateral ability he had when he was named to All-Defensive Team back in 2019. The shooting numbers are down, too -- but that's a relative critique.
Even if he was a hair under 39% from 3 this past season, the 34-year-old still canned 268 triples. (The season before, when he hit 41.2% of his 3s, Thompson drained a league-best 301.) Gilgeous-Alexander was already throwing kickout passes a longer average distance than anyone outside of Luka Doncic, per Second Spectrum, because of how much space he had to work with. (Oklahoma City also uses its guards to screen off the ball in a way that's similar to what Golden State does.) Thompson would amplify all that.
He would need considerable incentive to leave the Warriors, who seem set on making one last push with their championship core. But perhaps the Thunder -- who still have a couple years before they realistically need to worry about the punishing luxury tax aprons due to their youth -- would construct a deal with Thompson that includes more years than Golden State would agree to.
Los Angeles Lakers sign Paul George
If the Lakers lose James, it wouldn't be surprising to see them move extremely quickly to hold things together. The clearest way to do so would be maxing out George, who, even at 34, still stands out as one of the NBA's best two-way players. At three deflections per game on defense, he ranked among the league's top 10 in that regard, while also logging a career-best mark from three-point range at 41.3% on nearly eight tries per game.
It's not clear that the Clippers -- who agreed to a slightly less than max extension of three years with Leonard -- want to max out George. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that the Clippers were reluctant to go that far, and have so far offered him less than that. (Also of note: Harden is also a free agent this summer.) All of which might present an opening for the Lakers if they're willing to spend.
play
2:42
Stephen A.: The Clippers need to clean houseStephen A. Smith goes off on why the LA Clippers should not keep Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden together.
Beyond mere money, George preserved his body -- and played in the most games he's played (74) since the 2018-19 campaign -- by not having to create as much as a lead ball handler. With Harden joining the Clippers, George brought the ball up the floor to start the Clippers' possessions 10.6 times per game this past year, down 47% from the season before, according to data from Second Spectrum.
All of which gets into the next question: Who will be running the Lakers' offense if James is gone, and point guard D'Angelo Russell is a free agent?
Lakers trade for Trae Young
If Los Angeles loses James and replaces him with George, who's settled into handling the ball less, the Lakers would be wise to find someone who takes no issue with handling it more.
Young, as someone who shared ballhandling responsibility with Dejounte Murray the past two seasons in Atlanta, fits that bill. His efficiency can wane; particularly from deep, but he's also a playmaker whose penetration would create easy looks for Davis, who would immediately become the best big Young has ever played with. You can already imagine how confused defenders will be in trying to decipher Young-Davis pick-and-rolls, and ascertaining whether Young is shooting floaters -- he ranked in the league's 98th percentile, per Second Spectrum, in terms of how often he attempted them -- or throwing lobs for Davis.
All that said: Young isn't a free agent. Acquiring him would mean the Lakers deciding to part ways with draft picks and a handful of very solid players: guard Austin Reaves, forward Rui Hachimura and one of either Gabe Vincent or Jarred Vanderbilt.
Russell, who the club held onto at the trade deadline as he was in the midst of the hottest shooting stretch of his career, would need to opt out in order for Young to become a Laker.
play
1:34
Should the Lakers pursue Trae Young in the offseason?Brian Windhorst breaks down what the Lakers need to prioritize in the offseason in order to keep LeBron James on the team.
Orlando Magic sign D'Angelo Russell
After Orlando's first-round elimination, Magic star Paolo Banchero was asked what elements the team needed to take the next step.
He quickly identified one. "Having a guy who can set the table and be reliable," he said. "We have a lot of guys who can make shots and make plays. Me, Franz [Wagner] and Jalen [Suggs]. [But] I would rather be more of an offensive hub than the point guard, if that makes sense."
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Banchero has a chance to be the organization's first superstar since Dwight Howard and getting someone to organize the offense would keep him happy over time.
Russell might not be the guy who checks all the boxes, but the Magic, last in the NBA with just 903 3s this season, are desperate for shooting. Russell, 27, is coming off a campaign in which he not only hit 226 of them, but did so at a 41.5% clip. And Russell is a good passer who averaged better than six assists per game while sporting a 3-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Chicago Bulls sign Chris Paul
Last week, Lonzo Ball said he thinks he'll be able to return to play after missing the past two and a half seasons with repeated setbacks to his surgically repaired left knee.
That would be fantastic news for the Chicago Bulls, who have been mediocre since Ball first went down with the injury. Before Ball got hurt back in mid-January 2022, this was a first-place team in the Eastern Conference, one that thrived in transition with Ball's smart hit-ahead passes. Chicago won games late with closing lineups that surprised opponents by tightening the vise defensively.
Even if Ball is able to come back now that he's had a meniscus transplant, Chicago is going to need a table setter, either to serve as a starter as Ball eases into things or to relieve him and play decent minutes. And who better to do that than Paul, who, even as he nears the age of 40, is still a solid offensive player.
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He came off the bench for the first time in his career with Golden State -- which could opt to waive him to avoid having to pay him his $30 million salary that becomes guaranteed if he remains on the roster June 28 -- and shot 44% overall and 37% from 3 on nearly five tries per game. Paul's assist-to-turnover ratio, the best in NBA history among players who've logged 1,000 games, was stellar again this season at 5.17-to-1.
He wouldn't be a long-term answer for the Bulls, who have a ton of questions to answer about their roster at large. (Among them: Will 34-year-old free agent DeMar DeRozan be brought back this summer? How about 22-year-old restricted free agent Patrick Williams? And what about the trade chatter with Zach LaVine?) But giving them stability at guard will be a plus for a team that abruptly learned just how much good point guard play matters. Having Paul would make them better, whether it's as a starter or off the bench.
LA Clippers sign James Harden
After the Clippers acquired Harden, they lost their first five games with him in the lineup before becoming arguably the league's best team for the next few months, once the group hit a rhythm.
That alone is enough to bring Harden back, even with the way the season ended. Harden, for all his bravado, can still be an entire offense unto himself when he's at his best. He makes things so much easier for his teammates; Leonard and George were tremendously efficient on the floor when Harden ran the show.
Will the Clippers be a championship contender going forward? That question still has everything to do with Leonard's health come playoff time. But Harden can still perform at a high level for long stretches, and that should be enough for the Clips to bring the free agent back this offseason.
San Antonio Spurs trade for Darius Garland
One of the bigger questions for the future of the league centers on the San Antonio Spurs, and who will ultimately serve as soon-to-be superstar Victor Wembanyama's floor general.
Garland, still just 24 years old, could be a great fit despite his down season. It's fair to wonder whether he's best utilized sharing the ball so much with another star guard in Donovan Mitchell, and whether Cleveland's spacing on offense was ideal by having both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen on the floor together. (It wouldn't be surprising if the Cavs, facing those same questions as they try to convince Mitchell to sign an extension, seek to move Garland and/or Allen.)
Should the Spurs deal for Garland, they'd be banking on him not only making life easier for Wembanyama, but also on a return to form for the one-time All-Star as he generates more ballhandling opportunities. To his credit, Garland performed far better after returning from a 19-game absence that stemmed from a fractured jaw, hitting 84 triples -- 10th best in the NBA -- after the All-Star break. He connected on almost 40% of his tries from deep in that span.
Even with Garland playing in just 57 contests, he managed to rank 10th in the league with 58 passes directly into the restricted area. For context, Spurs guard Tre Jones, despite playing in 20 more games than Garland, finished the season with 37 such passes. Garland's added experience with manipulating defenses as a lead ball handler would help San Antonio.
All that said, the Spurs would need to maneuver some in order to take on Garland's deal. San Antonio has about $20 million in cap room this summer, meaning it might need to move someone like backup center Zach Collins -- who's set to make an average of $18 million over the next two seasons -- in order to absorb Garland's hefty salary.
play
1:28
The teams Windhorst could see trading for Donovan MitchellBrian Windhorst breaks down three teams, including the Lakers, that could pursue Donovan Mitchell if he doesn't sign an extension with the Cavaliers.
Washington Wizards trade for Jarrett Allen
Last season was clearly one to forget for the Washington Wizards and their fans -- and one that might have sparked more criticism if not for the Pistons tying the league record for consecutive losses in a season.
Washington parted ways with coach Wes Unseld Jr. midway through the campaign. After doing so, it still managed to lose 16 consecutive contests at one point, tying a franchise record. In the midst of the skid, Jordan Poole was struggling so much that he was booed at home in a game he fouled out of while going scoreless. Things were so sideways that interim coach Brian Keefe later elected to bring Poole, who is owed almost $96 million over the next three seasons, off the bench for a 12-game stretch.
So, needless to say: There are plenty of things that need fixing. Among them is rim protection, where the Wizards ranked third worst in the league by allowing opponents to shoot almost three percentage points better than their season averages when contesting their attempts near the basket. (Also of note here: At the deadline, Washington dealt away center Daniel Gafford, who's been a boon for the Mavericks. It left the Wizards with a need at center.)
That's where a player like Allen can clearly help. The one-time All-Star held opponents 7.5 percentage points beneath their averages -- one of the league's 15 best marks, among players who saw action in 50 games and defended at least four such shots per night.
Allen is on a good contract of just $20 million per season, meaning the Wizards would likely have to part ways with some of its draft picks in order to make a deal.
Memphis Grizzlies trade for Mitchell Robinson
One of the greatest signs of organizational health for the Memphis Grizzlies these past few years has been offensive rebounding.
During the 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23 campaigns -- the Grizzlies reached the playoffs in each one -- Memphis finished fourth, first and sixth in offensive rebound percentage, respectively. It's been a strong source of offense for the team because of how defenses collapse on Ja Morant when he drives to the basket. Even when Morant misses his acrobatic layups, defenders are often so out of position in trying to stop him that they have no realistic chance of securing a defensive rebound. As such, Morant collects countless "Kobe Assists," or makes that stem from quick putbacks.
There obviously wasn't much opportunity for that this season, with Morant first suspended, then out with a season-ending labrum tear. But even if he had played more, the team was also without injured center Steven Adams, who'd been Memphis' best offensive rebounder.
In gauging the lost season and the franchise's finances, the Grizzlies traded Adams to Houston. Absent Morant and Adams, Memphis fell to a pedestrian 13th in offensive rebound percentage this season.
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Enter Robinson, who more or less lost his starting role to Isaiah Hartenstein after missing 50 games following a midseason ankle surgery, and should be available in a trade. He's one of the league's premier offensive rebounding bigs, having finished second in the league in offensive rebound rate in 2021-22 and first in 2022-23. (He would have finished second in percentage this season, but with just 31 games played, he didn't qualify for the league's statistical leaderboard.) But New York will presumably want to have more money available for Hartenstein, who's also a great rebounder but also has an innate passing ability for a big man.
The only caveat in trading for Robinson and his $15 million per year salary is that Memphis would almost certainly have to send out the same amount of salary -- possibly someone like sharpshooter Luke Kennard -- in order to make the deal work. Memphis is projected to be over the first apron, and as a small-market team, likely won't want to deepen its financial position just to improve on the boards.
Still, acquiring a boardsman and lob threat like Robinson would be a solid step toward building the Grizzlies back into what they were before last season's injury-marred mess.
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