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I hate to dredge up a topic that was heated at the time, but I think it's good to discuss - what impact did young folks have on Biden dropping out?

Posted by colin (aka colinski) Jul 23 '24, 08:45

Specifically, what effect did some young folks saying "we'll vote Dem, but we won't vote for Biden" have?

Biden made it clear that he did the math and was not interested in courting young voters angry about his responses to Gaza. I believe he did the math and just said "fuck 'em, I can win anyway". But then he had his debate performance and things started to fall apart.

I'm not saying the protest vote (or not-vote) was what pushed him out, but it had to have been part of the calculation. If that's true, then didn't it work? Isn't that an effective way to push for change? Everyone seems very positive about Harris as the candidate, she seems to be better positioned now to beat Trump than Biden was.

Responses:

What would the connection even be? If I'm Biden, I'd see such protest votes as a matter of course in a democracy with freedom of speech. -- nm - con_carne Jul 23, 09:08
I doubt polling was a factor. It would have been the donor flow and discussion with his family. -- nm - Max Jul 23, 08:55 3
- The politico article says that internal swing state data from polling done last week is what finally convinced him -- nm* - ty97 Jul 23, 09:03 2
  - well then. Is it known if the younger demographic tipped the swing state numbers? -- nm - Max Jul 23, 09:07 1
    - he had actually been improving his share of the senior votes over 2020. this was just the bottom falling out with swing voters -- nm - hollywood big shot Jul 23, 09:13
Directly, I would say close to zero. Indirectly, maybe 10%. I don't think Biden thought about it at all and I don't think anyone who pushed Biden - pmb Jul 23, 08:53
I don't think any to be honest. I seriously believe his health drove this. - Pippy Jul 23, 08:49 8
- Yeah—getting Covid was the last straw -- nm - Trending Jul 23, 08:57
- 100000000% (I work in finance. I calced this number myself.) -- nm - ☀️ mandy chem ☀️ Jul 23, 08:52 6
  - word. But my calc actually was for Debate Performance/Health. -- nm* - LFG Jul 23, 08:53 5
    - and that interview. that interview was disastrous. -- nm - ☀️ mandy chem ☀️ Jul 23, 08:55 4
      - "President Putin".. also pretty bad. -- nm - colin Jul 23, 08:55 3
        
        see, that is where I was like.." Okay, this is over" -- nm - Pippy Jul 23, 09:02 2
        
        "vice president trump" for me. -- nm - ☀️ mandy chem ☀️ Jul 23, 09:12 1
        
        Me too. -- nm - mara Jul 23, 09:39
Threatening to allow the opposition to win may “work” on some level, sometimes, but it won’t always. Plus it’s just irrational. -- nm - mara Jul 23, 08:48 2
- The concept of lesser evil seems to be lost to a good number of people everywhere, but mostly in the US. (NM) - Marlowe Jul 23, 08:49 1
  - I never understood the stance to begin with: I won't vote for the guy continuing to support the war, but the other guy who will win will continue it? - Pippy Jul 23, 08:52
maybe 10%? the votes he was bleeding in battleground states weren't the little college snots -- nm - hollywood big shot Jul 23, 08:46

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I hate to dredge up a topic that was heated at the time, but I think it's good to discuss - what impact did young folks have on Biden dropping out?

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