There is an interesting dichotomy between the polls for the senate races and the presidential race in the swing states.
Posted by
Fuzzy (aka mrfuzzy)
Sep 4 '24, 07:29
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Arizona is a good example of this. The Dem candidate for senate has a clear lead but Harris does not. This plays out in some of the other swing states as well. Some possible explanations:
a) Incumbency matters - Incumbent senators likely have some support even among the MAGAts.
b) Dislike of Harris - For some people, they may have a particular issue with Harris that they don't have with the Dem senator candidate. Those reasons may vary and some may even be legitimate.
c) The polling models have overcorrected - After missing badly in 2016 and still not looking great in 2020, the survey houses have probably leaned heavily into weighing their sample in favor of Trump in an effort to avoid undercounting his support. They may have overcorrected for this but you don't see that as obviously in the Senate polls.
Personally, I think it's a mix of A and C. I am hopeful that in swing states in which the Dem senate candidate is leading by at least 5 points, that state is more likely to go for Harris.
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