ST Alpha - "apropos of nothing/everything: I still can't believe this election is so close. -- nm" (Reading a Post)

SlickerTalk
Search Archives
The Leaderboard
The FAQ

Login
Create Account

Search Dr. S. Talk
TT/ST Wiki
How Well Do You Know ...

RSS Feed

Hosting by DigitalOcean

Support ST on Ko-Fi

Down to Post

Backboards:

Posts: 151

apropos of nothing/everything: I still can't believe this election is so close. -- nm

Posted by ty97 Sep 13 '24, 13:01

(No message)

Responses:

I'd agree if there weren't so many different things supporting the Rs. For me, the big thing is that old people vote and young people don't. - con_carne Sep 13, 13:41 2
- The youth vote did swing to Harris pretty strongly, but numbers aren't (yet) showing her getting Biden 2020 numbers with that group. - ty97 Sep 13, 13:46
- and that's exactly why her endorsement is a big deal. -- nm - Jovian Sep 13, 13:43
I think the electoral "college" race is very close. the Dems may need to outdo the MAGA by 8 million votes in the popular! - mud Sep 13, 13:11 2
- good reminder that we only engage in this mania every four years because the person who gets the most vote doesn't necessarily win -- nm - mr mooch Sep 13, 13:26
- When I speak of the election, the EV count is what I mean. PV is nice, but meaningless, as Hillary learned. -- nm - ty97 Sep 13, 13:13
I'm really unclear on whether it really is or it's just the polling. There are just so many unknown factors involved as well. Like all the efforts to - pmb Sep 13, 13:06 13
- If the state level polling in places like WI/MI is off the way it was in 2016/2020 then it's a huge problem for Dems. Of course, no way to know.... - ty97 Sep 13, 13:15 4
  - I mean, we see the rallies, right? it's hard not to think that if the R ticket were as pop as polls say that the rallies would be bangers. -- nm - ☀️ mandy chem ☀️ Sep 13, 13:16 3
    - Right. The revival atmopheres have been replaced by a kind of sadness and self-pity. -- nm - David Sep 13, 13:28
    - Such a small % of voters go to any rallies, it's a non-indicator to me. - ty97 Sep 13, 13:17 1
      - It is a bit of a gauge of enthusiasm. But hard to draw concrete info from it. -- nm - pmb Sep 13, 13:20
- it's important to remember she's only been a candidate for about 50 days and trying to rebuild Obama/Hillary/Biden's coalition from 0mph - mr mooch Sep 13, 13:13 7
  - You think just 80%? I feel like they came flocking back 10 minutes after the announcement and grew from there. -- nm - pmb Sep 13, 13:21 5
    - the youth vote is apparently still lagging by double digits -- nm - mr mooch Sep 13, 13:25 4
      - I am surprised. I know the Palestinian issues continue to be a problem (though I remain boggled at the idea that Trump would be better for them). - pmb Sep 13, 13:28 3
        
        "How could it be worse?" To which I say they have terrible imaginations. - Reagen Sep 13, 13:45 1
        
        He'd have help from any number of other world leaders in chucking Netanyahu into the volcano. -- nm - Will Hunting Sep 13, 14:00
        
        The guy who said "they (Israel) should just finish it"? That guy? Is better for Palestinians? -- nm - zeitgeist Sep 13, 13:32
  - every critical moment she had to execute so far (rollout, VP, DNC, debate) she's done it flawlessly. he's done nothing to change that trajectory -- nm - mr mooch Sep 13, 13:18
I'm not convinced it is. -- nm - David Sep 13, 13:02 15
- I'd sooner believe 53-46 than 50-48. -- nm - Reagen Sep 13, 13:23 1
  - the national polls were pretty consistently in the 5% lead range this week (up a few points from the last round) -- nm - mr mooch Sep 13, 13:47
- In any case he's still likely to get ~>40% of the popular vote, which is insane. There are way too many deplorables. -- nm* - Max Sep 13, 13:11 2
  - Agree with David and Max here. -- nm - JaxSean Sep 13, 13:19
  - Agreed. -- nm - David Sep 13, 13:13
- Indicators are that it is. Obviously we don't get to see the reality until the election. -- nm - ty97 Sep 13, 13:04 9
  - The "indicators" are polls and the media. I've stopped believing in the former, and the latter has incentive to exaggerate the matter. - David Sep 13, 13:06 8
    - Would be great if polls were wrongly biased against Dems this year, and it's a possibility (something we can only decide post-election alas) -- nm - ty97 Sep 13, 13:26 7
      - I do think MAGA folk are more likely to answer random calls and answer polls than others. But I admit I'm still blown away by the "undecided voters" - pmb Sep 13, 13:31 5
        
        If that's true, it would have been true in 2020 as well. Also, I think polls adjusted for historical/expected turnout. - ty97 Sep 13, 13:34 4
        
        I think they were off in 2020. I don't think they predicted a PV spread that big. The EC makes everything more complicated (needlessly so). -- nm - pmb Sep 13, 13:42 3
        
        Polls were off in 2020, at least in the key swing states. They overstated Biden by a few points. -- (edited) - ty97 Sep 13, 13:50 2
        
        But in the mid-terms it largely went the other way (remember the red wave?). -- nm - pmb Sep 13, 14:07 1
        
        Yes, but mid-terms have acted differently -- nm - ty97 Sep 13, 14:35
      - But it was the cycle in 2020 and especially 2022. - David Sep 13, 13:29
omg right? like what the actual f*ck. he talked about eating cats and dogs on the debate stage. how is anyone voting for him? -- nm - ☀️ mandy chem ☀️ Sep 13, 13:02 10
- If he is elected, maybe we deserve to go under as a nation - Pippy: Conceptionalizer of Plans Sep 13, 13:29 1
  - Yup, Aaron Rupar said this election is our national dementia test. We fail this, we deserve to have our self-determination removed. -- nm - mara Sep 13, 16:59
- HE GONNA PROTECT US FROM IT!!! -- nm - MAGA Sep 13, 13:12 2
  - I assume the playbook is "I showed up in Springfield and I couldn't find any dog eaters because they all left because they were scared of me." - Max Sep 13, 13:13 1
    - Mission Accomplished -- nm - 45 Sep 13, 13:14
- did I tell you guys ever about once when we went to the elk lookout in mosquito creek (2020?) there was a woman there with anti child trafficking - ☀️ mandy chem ☀️ Sep 13, 13:09 3
  - beer and fries can ease many ills. -- nm - mud Sep 13, 13:13 2
    - the bar at the foot of the hill in mosq creek has "whatever kind of fries you want." curly, waffle, crinkle cut, frozen, fresh, tots... it's perfect. -- nm - ☀️ mandy chem ☀️ Sep 13, 13:14 1
      - I feel like that would be a great concept for a fast food franchise. - pmb Sep 13, 13:17
- The man basically has a 50/50 chance of winning right now - ty97 Sep 13, 13:03

Post a message top

Replies are disabled on threads older than 7 days.