ST Alpha - "I'm not convinced it is. -- nm" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "apropos of nothing/everything: I still can't believe this election is so close. -- nm" by ty97

I'm not convinced it is. -- nm

Posted by David (aka David) Sep 13 '24, 13:02

(No message)

Responses:

I'd sooner believe 53-46 than 50-48. -- nm - Reagen Sep 13, 13:23 1
- the national polls were pretty consistently in the 5% lead range this week (up a few points from the last round) -- nm - mr mooch Sep 13, 13:47
In any case he's still likely to get ~>40% of the popular vote, which is insane. There are way too many deplorables. -- nm* - Max Sep 13, 13:11 2
- Agree with David and Max here. -- nm - JaxSean Sep 13, 13:19
- Agreed. -- nm - David Sep 13, 13:13
Indicators are that it is. Obviously we don't get to see the reality until the election. -- nm - ty97 Sep 13, 13:04 9
- The "indicators" are polls and the media. I've stopped believing in the former, and the latter has incentive to exaggerate the matter. - David Sep 13, 13:06 8
  - Would be great if polls were wrongly biased against Dems this year, and it's a possibility (something we can only decide post-election alas) -- nm - ty97 Sep 13, 13:26 7
    - I do think MAGA folk are more likely to answer random calls and answer polls than others. But I admit I'm still blown away by the "undecided voters" - pmb Sep 13, 13:31 5
      - If that's true, it would have been true in 2020 as well. Also, I think polls adjusted for historical/expected turnout. - ty97 Sep 13, 13:34 4
        
        I think they were off in 2020. I don't think they predicted a PV spread that big. The EC makes everything more complicated (needlessly so). -- nm - pmb Sep 13, 13:42 3
        
        Polls were off in 2020, at least in the key swing states. They overstated Biden by a few points. -- (edited) - ty97 Sep 13, 13:50 2
        
        But in the mid-terms it largely went the other way (remember the red wave?). -- nm - pmb Sep 13, 14:07 1
        
        Yes, but mid-terms have acted differently -- nm - ty97 Sep 13, 14:35
    - But it was the cycle in 2020 and especially 2022. - David Sep 13, 13:29

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