ST Alpha - "The "indicators" are polls and the media. I've stopped believing in the former, and the latter has incentive to exaggerate the matter." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "Indicators are that it is. Obviously we don't get to see the reality until the election. -- nm" by ty97

The "indicators" are polls and the media. I've stopped believing in the former, and the latter has incentive to exaggerate the matter.

Posted by David (aka David) Sep 13 '24, 13:06

But I'm an optimist who never believed people would vote for 45 in 2016. Now, it strikes me as a disqualifying decision to do so. So, I have a bias as well.

Responses:

Would be great if polls were wrongly biased against Dems this year, and it's a possibility (something we can only decide post-election alas) -- nm - ty97 Sep 13, 13:26 7
- I do think MAGA folk are more likely to answer random calls and answer polls than others. But I admit I'm still blown away by the "undecided voters" - pmb Sep 13, 13:31 5
  - If that's true, it would have been true in 2020 as well. Also, I think polls adjusted for historical/expected turnout. - ty97 Sep 13, 13:34 4
    - I think they were off in 2020. I don't think they predicted a PV spread that big. The EC makes everything more complicated (needlessly so). -- nm - pmb Sep 13, 13:42 3
      - Polls were off in 2020, at least in the key swing states. They overstated Biden by a few points. -- (edited) - ty97 Sep 13, 13:50 2
        
        But in the mid-terms it largely went the other way (remember the red wave?). -- nm - pmb Sep 13, 14:07 1
        
        Yes, but mid-terms have acted differently -- nm - ty97 Sep 13, 14:35
- But it was the cycle in 2020 and especially 2022. - David Sep 13, 13:29

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The "indicators" are polls and the media. I've stopped believing in the former, and the latter has incentive to exaggerate the matter.

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