ST Alpha - "I'm curious to see the Selzer poll that should come out this weekend (I think we have to wait until the weekend, but not sure)" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "I respect that, and I remember that you were actually more optimistic than me in 2022. That was the week I gave up on polling because it was so wrong." by David

I'm curious to see the Selzer poll that should come out this weekend (I think we have to wait until the weekend, but not sure)

Posted by ty97 Oct 28 '24, 18:48

It's the well regarded poll of Iowa. While no single poll is ever perfect, Ann Selzer tends to get a very good read on Iowa.

Now, I don't expect Harris to win Iowa of course, I don't think anyone does. But the poll, if it's as accurate as it normally is (which we don't know until after the election of course) will give us an idea on the midwest / rural / white vote landscape.

Her poll in 2020 the weekend before the election had Trump +6. People attacked her for being an outlier, being too pro-trump vs the other polls. Trump won Iowa by 8.2 in 2020.

So if that poll shows up as, say, Trump +4, while it's one poll, that could be a good sign.

I dunno, I'm grasping now haha.

Responses:

This conversation is so very ST. I say I've given up on polling. Your reply is that you're excited to see a certain poll. -- nm - David Oct 28, 18:56 4
- Also I'm in Sickos mode, peering in on election coverage of SK - Reagen Oct 28, 19:03 1
  - I've been reading about the Georgia (country) election -- nm - ty97 Oct 28, 19:05
- but muh priors! -- nm - Reagen Oct 28, 18:59
- haha, just one very very specific poll! -- nm - ty97 Oct 28, 18:56

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I'm curious to see the Selzer poll that should come out this weekend (I think we have to wait until the weekend, but not sure)

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