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LYC - here is my completely simplistic reason why i remain cautiously optimistic that it is going to be Harris

Posted by Andie Oct 29 '24, 05:59

Biden beat the incumbent Trump in 2020.

I don't recall a big swell of excitement for Joe, he was just seen as likeable, dependable, known.
He won.

Harris has generated some real energy.
Trump has gone even further off the rails.

my thoughts really boil down to "if 2020 Biden can beat 2020 Trump, 2024 Harris can beat 2024 Trump."

Responses:

It makes me nervous to say it but I think she wins easily. - Volnelk Oct 29, 07:53
My hesitation with that view is that I feel like both sides view this like Avengers Endgame. Last chance to save the world. - pmb Oct 29, 07:47 1
- This is where I'm at. - ReluctantCynic Oct 29, 07:53
As of today I'm slightly confident that she wins PA, MI, WI and gets exactly 270 EV. -- nm - Max Oct 29, 07:19 1
- I think WI is table stakes at this point due to changing electorate there. PA is the roughest by far. -- nm - ☀️ amandachem ☀️ Oct 29, 07:24
From your mouth to God's ears. (NM) - Marlowe Oct 29, 07:06
My current personal take is: I know nothing and at this point there's not much I can do but vote. In my mind it's exactly 50/50. -- nm - Dano Oct 29, 07:02 6
- I do think the illusion or feeling it’s 50/50 is important to manufacture, especially if you are going to say it’s stolen…going 50/50 to say 55/45 in - Trending Oct 29, 07:14 1
  - It could definitely all be manufactured. I don't have the time or energy to dig into everything to have a confident opinion. I'll just vote and see. -- nm - Dano Oct 29, 08:13
- When I do see an indicator that makes me think it could swing one way I can immediately find something that makes me think the opposite. -- nm - Dano Oct 29, 07:04 3
  - Yeah, that's one of the reasons it keeps looking like a manufactured neck and neck horserace. -- nm - con_carne Oct 29, 08:10
  - Trump just took a shit on the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier...why that is bad for Kamala Harris -- nm - Beaker 🍺 Oct 29, 07:12
  - Yes. -- nm - ty97 Oct 29, 07:11
That could very well be true. Here are my concerns. - Inigo Oct 29, 06:50
She's also picking up vocal Republicans switching to vote for her. He is not switching Democrat voters to him. - JaxSean Oct 29, 06:36 4
- He actually has. Particularly black men and Latinos (though we'll see if that holds after this weekend). There's something of a realignment happening. -- nm - pmb Oct 29, 07:39
- 2020 already saw a huge spike in turnout, I'm curious how 2024 plays on that front. - ty97 Oct 29, 06:43 2
  - I fully expect a huge spike again. -- nm - JaxSean Oct 29, 07:07 1
    - The Dems biggest potential vulnerability right now, I feel, is turnout of Dem and Dem-leaning voters. -- nm* - ty97 Oct 29, 07:12
She has shown up in my dreams twice the last couple weeks. Political advertising really has gone too far. -- (edited) - Bayronmax Oct 29, 06:22
But she's black and female (though I'm still leaning toward her winning) -- nm* - prayformojo Oct 29, 06:18 1
- Yeah—damn— -- nm - Trending Oct 29, 06:23
I had a similar thought…Biden beat Trump soundly…how is Trump picking up votes, when even Republicans are jumping ship post 1/6 -- nm - Trending Oct 29, 06:16 3
- In percentages, the denominator matters. If Trump picks up zero votes, but some Biden voters stay home, then Trumps % goes up. -- nm - ty97 Oct 29, 06:33 1
  - This isn't a prediction, just a theoretical avenue that would allow for the outcome -- nm - ty97 Oct 29, 06:34
- racism and sexism are things that exist outside of this space. -- nm - ☀️ amandachem ☀️ Oct 29, 06:23
my very conflicted note is: I get that polls are bullshit, but if betting sites have trump winning nevertheless, that's worrisome. -- nm - ☀️ amandachem ☀️ Oct 29, 06:15 10
- Make of it what you will, but trading in DJT (which is basically a bet on Trump winning) - Brian Oct 29, 07:33 4
  - I see that stock trading activity as a grift ledger. -- nm - Max Oct 29, 07:55
  - (Hi!) I wonder if it's more of a GME type meme stock than a prediction vehicle. Not sure. - ty97 Oct 29, 07:54
  - ! hello there. -- nm - mud Oct 29, 07:38
  - It's an exercise in Tinkerbell "clap harder!" -- nm - Reagen Oct 29, 07:38
- I'm very slightly confident Harris wins but I also created a trailing stop sell on my market index funds just in case. - Max Oct 29, 07:17
- that would mainly be because MAGA love giving money to grifters and are a cult worshipping Trump so are dumping dollars into him winning - Beaker 🍺 Oct 29, 06:55 2
  - betting odds aren't about actual winning and losing. it is the sites predicting who will bet the most on an outcome and tweaking the odds so they - Beaker 🍺 Oct 29, 06:57 1
    - Good to know. Makes sense. -- nm - James Bond (aka Igor) Oct 29, 07:07
- They did last time too. Bettors are at best a second derivative. -- nm - Reagen Oct 29, 06:43

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LYC - here is my completely simplistic reason why i remain cautiously optimistic that it is going to be Harris

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