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In response to
"LYC - here is my completely simplistic reason why i remain cautiously optimistic that it is going to be Harris"
by
Andie
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That could very well be true. Here are my concerns.
Posted by
Inigo (aka Inigo)
Oct 29 '24, 06:50
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It's not just the national polls going in Trump's favor the past two months. Favorability and who people want to control Congress has also moved towards Trump and Republicans.
Early voting is down and will likely be 15% to 30% lower than 2020. Lower turnout usually favors Republicans.
Harris' numbers with young men and younger people overall are a significant dropoff from Biden in 2020.
Men overall (even black men) aren't enthused about her. If she wins, imo, it'll have to be a record turnout from women on election day despite that not happening in early voting.
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