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Final Selzer poll of Iowa: HARRIS +3 -- (link)

Posted by ty97 Nov 2 '24, 16:03

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https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/ (www.desmoinesregister.com)

Responses:

one reason for the gender chasm is Iowa GOP forced a six-week abortion ban on the state this year -- (link) - mr mooch Nov 2, 17:29 1
- I wonder how this translates to states without a ban, or states with a ban that have amendment on the ballot? - ty97 Nov 2, 17:42
.....I'll be in my bunk. -- nm - znufrii Nov 2, 17:02
Max U also has Trump up just 3 pts in OH, so not inconsistent with that margin either -- (link) - mr mooch Nov 2, 17:01
landslides can be like Hemingway’s bankruptcy: gradually then suddenly (see 1980) -- nm* - mr mooch Nov 2, 16:42
lol sure -- nm - Nate Cohn Nov 2, 16:41
Important point -- (link) - ty97 Nov 2, 16:24
- net 10% change from 2020. - Will Hunting Nov 2, 16:20 11
- “In a June 2024 Selzer poll, Trump led Biden by 18 points” -- nm - mr mooch Nov 2, 16:45 2
  - I don't really pay attention anything but the finals Selzer polls. Too much fluctuation otherwise. -- nm - ty97 Nov 2, 18:37
  - if she is running up these margins with senior voters (senior women specifically) in more blue states than Iowa…. -- (link) - mr mooch Nov 2, 16:48
- Four years ago at this time, polls were showing a Iowa close-ish, and Biden wiping the floor across the board with Trump. Then Selzer came in +7 Trump -- (edited) - ty97 Nov 2, 16:22 7
  - If she’s right, down ballot might be huge because 2020 was assumed Biden and no one wanted him with a majority… - Will Hunting Nov 2, 16:26 6
    - Yeah, this is tough to google for. What is this about people voting for Biden but then wanting Republicans in Congress? Pls and thank you. -- nm - con_carne Nov 2, 16:31 5
      - People in 2020 didn't *like* Biden's policies but didn't want Trump. Best way for that to be the case is to have - Will Hunting Nov 2, 16:45 2
        
        Thanks! -- nm - con_carne Nov 2, 16:59 1
        
        I could be wrong, but I think it's as realistic as anything to explain that particular set of polling misses above and beyond his own. -- nm - Will Hunting Nov 2, 17:21
      - Theory is anti Trump Republicans won’t vote for him but want to put a check on Kamala by giving her a Republican Congress. -- nm - Dano Nov 2, 16:40 1
        
        I think that was 2020 --- this year, the fact it's so damn close in theory, you might see a silent wave go the other way in case he wins. -- nm - Will Hunting Nov 2, 16:46
Now, to stay true to my beliefs: THIS IS ONLY ONE POLL. And this could be the year Selzer misses really badly. But I don't bet against her. -- (edited) - ty97 Nov 2, 16:07
!!!! -- nm - Reagen Nov 2, 16:04 5
- I meant to insert those at the end -- nm - ty97 Nov 2, 16:06 3
  - I saw it and had to reread it 3 times to make sure I was actually seeing that right. -- nm - Reagen Nov 2, 16:15 2
    - It’s like only +3? That’s great for Kamala. Wait, what? -- nm* - Dano Nov 2, 16:42
    - I was dreaming of something like Trump +2. Didn't expect it, but was hoping. Even let myself dream of a tie for a second. Never this! -- nm* - ty97 Nov 2, 16:18
- I had a similar reaction, maybe !! -- nm - mud Nov 2, 16:06
NO, I do NOT think Harris is going to win Iowa. However you need to understand the history of the Selzer Iowa poll and how it does NOT herd. -- (link) - ty97 Nov 2, 16:03 1
- (also, I can't rule out that Harris might win Iowa) -- nm - ty97 Nov 2, 16:26

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