ST Alpha - "Four years ago at this time, polls were showing a Iowa close-ish, and Biden wiping the floor across the board with Trump. Then Selzer came in +7 Trump -- (edited)" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "- net 10% change from 2020." by Will Hunting

Four years ago at this time, polls were showing a Iowa close-ish, and Biden wiping the floor across the board with Trump. Then Selzer came in +7 Trump -- (edited)

Posted by ty97 Nov 2 '24, 16:22

And she was basically right, despite all the naysayers. That was the first real impression of how tight it was going to be and how polls still weren't getting it.

So *IF* she's right again, well WOW

Responses:

If she’s right, down ballot might be huge because 2020 was assumed Biden and no one wanted him with a majority… - Will Hunting Nov 2, 16:26 6
- Yeah, this is tough to google for. What is this about people voting for Biden but then wanting Republicans in Congress? Pls and thank you. -- nm - con_carne Nov 2, 16:31 5
  - People in 2020 didn't *like* Biden's policies but didn't want Trump. Best way for that to be the case is to have - Will Hunting Nov 2, 16:45 2
    - Thanks! -- nm - con_carne Nov 2, 16:59 1
      - I could be wrong, but I think it's as realistic as anything to explain that particular set of polling misses above and beyond his own. -- nm - Will Hunting Nov 2, 17:21
  - Theory is anti Trump Republicans won’t vote for him but want to put a check on Kamala by giving her a Republican Congress. -- nm - Dano Nov 2, 16:40 1
    - I think that was 2020 --- this year, the fact it's so damn close in theory, you might see a silent wave go the other way in case he wins. -- nm - Will Hunting Nov 2, 16:46

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Four years ago at this time, polls were showing a Iowa close-ish, and Biden wiping the floor across the board with Trump. Then Selzer came in +7 Trump -- (edited)

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