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In response to
"Yeah, this is tough to google for. What is this about people voting for Biden but then wanting Republicans in Congress? Pls and thank you. -- nm"
by
con_carne
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People in 2020 didn't *like* Biden's policies but didn't want Trump. Best way for that to be the case is to have
Posted by
Will Hunting (aka JoeMetz)
Nov 2 '24, 16:45
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split government -- which people assumed Biden was going to win given all the polls had him up 5-7%.
So, if you know who's at the top, but you don't want him to have a mandate, you vote the other guy lower.
Sarah Gideon was up about 5% over Susan Collins in every poll in 2020. Collins won by 9%. People wanted her to be a bulwark against what they thought was going to be Biden's policies.
Iowa -- last poll in 2020 was Jodi Ernst down 1%.
North C -- Cunningham up 6% over Tillis. There was a late scandal there so that played in as well.
Montana -- Daines over Bullock by 4%
Arizona -- Mark Kelly over Martha McSally by 9%.
Maine -- Gideon up 5 over Collins
Real results
Iowa -- Ernst by 6
Arizona -- Kelly by 3
Montana -- Daines by 10
North C -- Tillis by 2
Maine -- Collins by 9
There was an average of 8% swing in the last week between polls and actuals across every close swing Senate race.
Donald Trump didn't do anything to swing those seats. He only closed the gap a few points so how did the GOP senate guys gain an average of 4-5% more vote than him in the last week?
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