ST Alpha - "according to their SoS, Iowa counts fast, and should be done by 10 pm election night. So we'll know quickly whether that poll was true or not. -- nm" (Reading a Post)

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according to their SoS, Iowa counts fast, and should be done by 10 pm election night. So we'll know quickly whether that poll was true or not. -- nm

Posted by Reagen Nov 3 '24, 04:34

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Responses:

It was 11:00 (their time) in 2016. My goal now is to stay up long enough to see at least one swing state called (NC seems likeliest) plus Iowa. -- nm - mara Nov 3, 06:31 2
- Michigan is allowed to tabulate early vote this time around so probably not a late night call again -- nm - mr mooch Nov 3, 06:33 1
  - Ah, thanks. -- nm - mara Nov 3, 06:35
Just saw this Seltzer poll. This is definitely a dream scenario for Harris. I thought I was optimistically hoping for Trump +2. Wow! -- nm - Inigo Nov 3, 06:22
Same size of 808 feels cray to hang your reputation on. (Note that I could totally see this result being true.) -- nm* - amanda Nov 3, 05:23 12
- most analysis of the crosstabs seems to come down to "women who remember what life was like before Roe are breaking for Kamala en masse" also, Tariffs -- (edited) - mr mooch Nov 3, 06:01
- Statistics is wild. -- nm - znufrii Nov 3, 05:40 9
  - For example, the Birthday Paradox, which seems impossible even when you understand the math. - Bayronmax Nov 3, 06:13 2
    - What's it....23 people? -- nm - Will Hunting Nov 3, 06:14 1
      - yup. -- nm - Reagen Nov 3, 06:23
  - I always liked stats (I know, you're all shocked) but seeing the physical implications of sample sizes was really wild in my stats class. -- nm - Reagen Nov 3, 05:43 5
    - I just always think there are so many demos to represent. Like white ladies with postgrad degrees living in large towns who usually but - amanda Nov 3, 05:47 4
      - There's a lot of correlation between these groups though - Reagen Nov 3, 05:57 3
        
        But what about atheists vs agnostics?? -- nm - mara Nov 3, 06:37 2
        
        I don't care and I don't know. - Reagen Nov 3, 06:45 1
        
        Heh -- nm - mara Nov 3, 06:45
- It's a surprisingly sufficient size if your sample is truly well distributed - Reagen Nov 3, 05:30
Emerson Iowa poll yesterday had Trump +9 -- nm - Dano Nov 3, 04:51 14
- I wonder what Selzer is thinking. Being the outlier that much has to be nerve-wracking. -- nm - Will Hunting Nov 3, 05:02 13
  - a big difference is that she apparently asks "are you voting" and uses that, while the other polls are using some secret sauce to make it match - Reagen Nov 3, 05:14 12
    - It certainly seems compelling to argue that polling firms in general are over-engineering their results out of fear of missing again -- (edited) - znufrii Nov 3, 05:32 5
      - Agreeance. The one thing that really makes think it's true is women. Trump's campaign is intimating that the results are bad becase - amanda Nov 3, 05:44 4
        
        If Selzer is to be believed, it's old women to the rescue. -- nm* - Dano Nov 3, 06:16 1
        
        the other thing is that while momentum is hard to measure, it can be a snowball running downhill at shocks - Reagen Nov 3, 07:11
        
        NYT et al: "The story of this first post-Dobbs presidential election is how disaffected young single men, the most important group - are feeling" -- nm - Reagen Nov 3, 05:46 1
        
        nathanfillion.gif -- nm - znufrii Nov 3, 05:49
    - Whatever her methods, the large gap has to be scary. Either she’s got a bad method this time or they do. - Will Hunting Nov 3, 05:26 2
      - (and some Trump surrogate came out with "nuh uh, our internals say +5" - which is just "oh so we're only lightly fucked") -- nm - Reagen Nov 3, 05:34
      - Not uncharted territory for her to be in - last time, aggregate was T +1.5 or so. - Reagen Nov 3, 05:33
    - Yeah. I think she trusts her process and reports the results without trying to force them into something that "makes sense." -- nm - Dano Nov 3, 05:19 2
      - Based on even her own polls, if true this seems to be late breaking. MSG could have actually been the tipping point. Remains to be seen of course. - Dano Nov 3, 05:35 1
        
        re: your last line - I was gonna say "sorta sounds like the campaign a narcissist might run!" -- nm - Reagen Nov 3, 05:38

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