ST Alpha - "Emerson Iowa poll yesterday had Trump +9 -- nm" (Reading a Post)

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In response to "according to their SoS, Iowa counts fast, and should be done by 10 pm election night. So we'll know quickly whether that poll was true or not. -- nm" by Reagen

Emerson Iowa poll yesterday had Trump +9 -- nm

Posted by Dano (aka dano) Nov 3 '24, 04:51

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Responses:

I wonder what Selzer is thinking. Being the outlier that much has to be nerve-wracking. -- nm - Will Hunting Nov 3, 05:02 13
- a big difference is that she apparently asks "are you voting" and uses that, while the other polls are using some secret sauce to make it match - Reagen Nov 3, 05:14 12
  - It certainly seems compelling to argue that polling firms in general are over-engineering their results out of fear of missing again -- (edited) - znufrii Nov 3, 05:32 5
    - Agreeance. The one thing that really makes think it's true is women. Trump's campaign is intimating that the results are bad becase - amanda Nov 3, 05:44 4
      - If Selzer is to be believed, it's old women to the rescue. -- nm* - Dano Nov 3, 06:16 1
        
        the other thing is that while momentum is hard to measure, it can be a snowball running downhill at shocks - Reagen Nov 3, 07:11
      - NYT et al: "The story of this first post-Dobbs presidential election is how disaffected young single men, the most important group - are feeling" -- nm - Reagen Nov 3, 05:46 1
        
        nathanfillion.gif -- nm - znufrii Nov 3, 05:49
  - Whatever her methods, the large gap has to be scary. Either she’s got a bad method this time or they do. - Will Hunting Nov 3, 05:26 2
    - (and some Trump surrogate came out with "nuh uh, our internals say +5" - which is just "oh so we're only lightly fucked") -- nm - Reagen Nov 3, 05:34
    - Not uncharted territory for her to be in - last time, aggregate was T +1.5 or so. - Reagen Nov 3, 05:33
  - Yeah. I think she trusts her process and reports the results without trying to force them into something that "makes sense." -- nm - Dano Nov 3, 05:19 2
    - Based on even her own polls, if true this seems to be late breaking. MSG could have actually been the tipping point. Remains to be seen of course. - Dano Nov 3, 05:35 1
      - re: your last line - I was gonna say "sorta sounds like the campaign a narcissist might run!" -- nm - Reagen Nov 3, 05:38

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