Answering some questions from B2.
Posted by
Marlowe
Nov 21 '24, 15:33
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1) Bolsonaro is in Brazil. In fact, I *believe* he had to give his passport to the Federal Police a while back, so low flight risk (he can always use a small plane or drive to Argentina, where Milei may be friendly.)
2) I do think there is a better than 50-50 chance Bolsonaro will go to prison. The evidence against his inner circle is getting heavier and heavier. I just read that the singing aide (who is delivering the goods to avoid prison time of his own) just gave up Braga, who was the VP candidate, on a platter; no one knows for sure if Bolsonaro was mentioned or not. In any case, they have shown little loyalty to each other, and Braga may turn against Bolsonaro if it gets to that. Or some of the other 30+ people. The media seems to think that, as the leniency to the aide has been maintained after this afternoon, he must have given evidence against Bolsonaro.
3) Hard to say where the country stands. We just had local elections a month ago, and the right was strong, but Bolsonaro and his direct support, not as much. His cronies have been silent for the past week (since a lone wolf died as he tried to bomb the Supreme Court and the Congress a week ago). Now, I'm deeply into a bubble, but from my POV, nobody is even thinking about him anymore. New leadership to the far Right began to appear already. But, I think about 20-ish% are still strong supporters. The middle will likely veer away from him and look for someone "better".
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