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In response to
"It’s a new eruption in the same area as recent ones. This was not unexpected, they just wouldn’t know exactly when and where the fissure would form I guess. -- (edited)"
by
znufrii
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any of them could theoretically go at any time, but some of them are much more likely to have a bigger boom.
Posted by
mafic
Nov 21 '24, 18:04
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the one near the blue lagoon is a much more distributed system, so it's less likely to be a giant explosive thing when it does go. there are fissures and craters over something like 30 square km, so you're not likely to get a pressure buildup that'll end with something big. because of that it's also more likely to go with less warning, and from a less predictable source. the ones that are big volcanoes with a central crater or vent are more likely to build up and erupt in a more violent fashion, but the monitoring systems are more likely to catch that buildup further in advance.
with the scale of Iceland's monitoring they're probably catching most of the buildup at least a month out. problem is predicting the actual eruption. like they can go "we're seeing crustal deformation and temperature change, and earthquake swarms so something's coming," but then it can just not happen for months. they're getting better at narrowing it down now, but it's still not an exact science.
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