Let's go, Lions! ‘We hate the Lions’: Why sportsbooks are scared of a Detroit Super Bowl win By Ben Fawkes
Posted by
JD (aka Jason Dean)
Nov 22 '24, 10:23
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The Detroit Lions’ Week 11 52-6 dismantling of the Jacksonville Jaguars, combined with the Kansas City Chiefs’ 30-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills, vaulted the Lions into a unique position. For one of the few times in the history of the franchise, they became the consensus Super Bowl favorite at around +325 odds. In fact, by the account of several oddsmakers, it’s likely the first time the team has been favored to win the title in 70 years. After all, the Lions have only made the playoffs 18 times since 1935.
That status has also positioned the Lions as the team most likely to keep those oddsmakers up at night after roaring to a 9-1 start this season. After last season’s inspiring run to the NFC Championship Game, the money has poured in on Detroit, which could cost sportsbooks significantly in payouts to bettors if the Lions were to win Super Bowl LIX.
“They’re by far our biggest Super Bowl liability and pretty much our only one at this point,” BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini told The Athletic. “Anything inside of 10-1 [odds] we don’t tend to build crazy liability that we’re worried about, but everybody has been on them. At this point, the Lions winning the Super Bowl would be a huge problem for us. If I could remove them from futures, I would.”
Adding to the growing liability on Detroit, fans tend to favor their home team with their wagers, and Michigan is one of the 38 states with legal sports betting (and the 10th-largest by population). The Lions opened the offseason in the 12-1 range to win the Super Bowl, but those odds have dropped significantly to just over 3-1 since. The betting money has followed that success.
“The betting momentum in favor of Detroit started prior to the season as they attracted a large number of Super Bowl future wagers,” said Brad Bryant, general manager at Mohegan Sun FanDuel Sportsbook, noting the Lions have been one of the Mohegan Sun’s “top-wagered teams on a weekly basis.”
At DraftKings Sportsbook, 31 percent of bets (No. 1 among NFL teams) and 31 percent of total dollars wagered (also No. 1) were on Detroit to win the Super Bowl earlier this week. The Lions are third in ticket count for Super Bowl futures at The Borgata in Atlantic City, where sportsbook director Thomas Gable noted Detroit has the most total dollars wagered to win the Super Bowl “by a pretty good stretch.”
“We hate the Lions,” Cipollini said, adding that the number of bets on the Lions is the first thing that he looks at every week. “I haven’t seen something like this in my time at BetMGM. Every single week, they’re our worst team. I think something like 95 percent of the bets last week [vs. the Jaguars] were on Detroit.”
With an NFC-best 9-1 record and winners of eight straight games, the Lions have vaulted from a top-five preseason power rating among oddsmakers to the consensus No. 1 team in the league. Out of 10 oddsmakers The Athletic polled, nine of them had the Lions as their highest power-rated team. (One had the Baltimore Ravens slightly above Detroit.)
The Lions also have the NFL’s best record at 8-2 against the spread, and bettors placing a moneyline wager or standard six-point teaser on Detroit have cashed that ticket in nine of 10 weeks.
And the action isn’t only in Michigan. Bookmakers noted the increased interest in betting the Lions at several sportsbooks from Mississippi to Las Vegas.
“That’s 100 percent true,” Ed Salmons, vice president of risk at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, said. “Weekly bets on Lions point spread, moneyline, teasers and game over and Lions team total over.”
Several other oddsmakers agreed, noting they’d seen an increase in betting on the Lions compared to previous seasons and that the public was regularly tossing Detroit in moneyline parlays and teasers. In the upcoming Week 12, Lions at -7.5 is currently the most-bet Week 12 side by both total money and tickets at BetMGM and DraftKings.
“[The public] will include Detroit in parlays and tease the spread down,” The Borgata’s Gable noted. “We opened [with] the Lions -8 against the Colts [in Week 12] and took respected money right away against the Colts. Now it’s 7.5.”
It’s easy to see why the public is in love: The Lions are a ridiculous 41-16 ATS (72 percent) in their past 57 games since the middle of the 2021 season. That includes a 22-8 ATS mark in the first half since the start of last season. Double-digit favorites in the NFL are 5-0 ATS this season, and the Lions are responsible for two of those covers — the 52-6 laugher vs. Jacksonville as a 14-point favorite and a 52-14 demolition of the Tennessee Titans as a 13-point favorite. It’s one thing to cover a 14-point spread; it’s another to have it be a rocking-chair win.
Looking ahead to a potential title matchup, when six oddsmakers were asked to make a spread on a Chiefs-Lions matchup on a neutral field, their responses were:
Lions -4.5
Lions -2.5
Lions -2
Lions -1.5
Lions -1
And one pick-em
The oddsmaker framing the matchup as a pick-em explained, “One concern I have is the coach. When you talk about Detroit vs. the Chiefs and Andy Reid, there’s a big difference there. And the Lions haven’t gotten [to the Super Bowl] yet. The Chiefs have been there.”
As the Lions keep steamrolling through teams, oddsmakers are certainly rooting against a Detroit Super Bowl victory. And history might be on their side.
Several of the oddsmakers contacted by The Athletic, who have worked in sports betting since the 1970s, could not recall a time when Detroit had been favored to win pro football’s championship. Per Pro Football Reference, however, the Lions were favored by three points 70 years ago in the 1954 championship game against the Cleveland Browns … who obliterated the favorites by a score of 56-10.
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