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In response to "My outlook hinges on the "government efficiency" and "tariffs". If they truly do the things they've talked about I expect it will be nasty" by oblique

Here's my fear, first that he'll get the benefit of all the work Biden did with the Chips Act and the IRA so that a ton of manufacturing jobs come on

line in his first year or 2, masking a lot of other problems. Of course he will take all the credit for that and get the upside (possibly growing his margins in the Congress), and then all of it starts to crash into a far deeper hole than would have happened if his policies slowly created issues (like inflation) that people hate. I don't see how the sum of his policies don't create big issues (unless maybe the tariffs surprisingly result in some improved trade terms, or other things work in counterintuitive ways). But timing can extend and deepen the issues that make the results much longer lasting.

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