"What should we expect from the forthcoming (G20) summit sequence?
Posted by
Loyola
Sep 8 '09, 05:45
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Nothing meaningful.
This is a sophisticated delaying action and you are seeing masters of economic policy spin at work. When something goes wrong on a colossal, global scale, here�s the playbook (e.g., as applied to capital requirements).
1. Agree that there is a problem, but be very vague about it. �It�s complicated� is a good watch phrase.
2. State some completely bland principles to which no can object.
3. By all means, have a spat with the French or Germans. But then patch it up amicably at the big summit; agree to do a bit of everything, in principle. People are wowed by your leadership.
4. Send the job of formulating technical details to a committee of experts, asking them to report at the end of 2009 � and then make adjustments through the end of 2010.
5. Rely on the experts to produce a report of mind-numbing detail, which few really understand. The experts know their job and will deliver.
6. Provide leaks of this work and your �true feelings� to sympathetic reporters. They will help declare victory against great, albeit vaguely specified, odds.
7. At this point, it�s 2011 and either (a) new people are in power, or (b) other things have gone sufficiently well that everyone has forgotten about the financial fiasco of 2008-09.
There will be some minor changes, and these will be much trumpeted. But what will really change in or around the power structure of global finance � as it plays out in the United States, Western Europe, or anywhere else?
Nothing"
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