ST Alpha - "Again, you're worrying about the second thing prematurely." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "It's the risk-reward that's all screwed up. If you're at the Colts 40 you go for it. But deep in your territory you play the odds. And the odds are" by pmb

Again, you're worrying about the second thing prematurely.

Posted by David (aka David) Nov 16 '09, 14:34

The odds that matter are based on a team getting 8.7 yards a play needing to get 2 yards to win a game, something they almost did. Had that happened, we're not having this conversation. Nobody says a word about that and I know this because he did the same thing against the Falcons last month. It was in the 3rd quarter and they were clinging to a lead. The Patriots converted and drove down to score on the drive. The media didn't even notice. 76% of the time, New England converts on 4th and 2 under BB. What you're worrying about has 3:1 odds against ever happening. Do you see what I'm saying?

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I see, but you can't look at the decision in a vaccuum. The decision is a chance with good odds of succeeding versus terrible consequences if you - pmb Nov 16, 14:43 1
- This is where we disagree. I see this as the decision that -does- take place in a vacuum. - David Nov 16, 14:47

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Again, you're worrying about the second thing prematurely.

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