ST Alpha - "I think most of the people praising belichick are just hoping they can convince him it was a good idea so he'll make the same stupid call again -- nm" (Reading a Post)

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I think most of the people praising belichick are just hoping they can convince him it was a good idea so he'll make the same stupid call again -- nm

Posted by dogbert Nov 16 '09, 16:13

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Responses:

I just know that Gregg Easterbrook thinks it was the right decision. That's enough for me to know it wasn't. -- nm - Will Hunting Nov 16, 16:44 2
- Conversely: Jay Mariotti thought it was a stupid call and a no-brainer to punt. -- nm - David Nov 16, 16:58
- ew. damnit. do i need to change again? -- nm - TFox Nov 16, 16:46
The call to try to convert wasn't bad. The *play* they chose to run sucked. - TWuG Nov 16, 16:41 4
- The ball hit his hands a yard and a half past the marker. He was driven back while he bobbled. -- nm - David Nov 16, 16:42 3
  - True enough. Get better recievers, then. - TWuG Nov 16, 16:50 2
    - Dude, that was Kevin Faulk. He's got over 400 career receptions. He almost never bobbles a ball like that. -- nm - David Nov 16, 16:54 1
      - I dunno. I think every reciever, even the best have bobbles like that. It just usually doesn't make that big a diff. - musubi Nov 16, 17:01
And more evidence that it was the right call: -- (link) - the wrong element, bad guy Nov 16, 16:25 25
- I don't buy his math. - musubi Nov 16, 16:42 11
  - Brady's historical performance on 4th down is even better than what he uses. And there is no way that Peyton was only 30% to get in at the end either. -- nm - TFox Nov 16, 16:43 10
    - agree. you give the colts a huge momentum swing, hand the ball to the best qb ever after showing no confidence in your defense. I would say the td was - dogbert Nov 16, 16:51 3
      - Yes, because a 79 yard TD drive in under 2 minutes gave them no momentum. - the wrong element, bad guy Nov 16, 16:55 2
        
        I can only assume this is sarcasm, but it seems to show even more evidence the choice was poor. yes, indy has tons of momentum which would tip the - dogbert Nov 16, 17:01
        
        Momentum is horsehockey. It was all about field position and time on the clock. - musubi Nov 16, 16:58
    - Yup on both those. I am not convinced there is enough sample size for last minute drives to say those historical percentages are significant. - musubi Nov 16, 16:47 5
      - There haven't been enough two-minute drills where a team needed a touchdown to get a success rate? For shame, musubi. -- nm - TFox Nov 16, 16:49 4
        
        Starting from the opponents 30? That happens almost never. - musubi Nov 16, 16:52 3
        
        Also, this statement, "But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it." - musubi Nov 16, 16:57 2
        
        I agree with you on that. Drop him a comment and see if he replies. -- nm - David Nov 16, 17:00 1
        
        Maybe after I go home, it's time to roll. 'night TT. (nm) - musubi Nov 16, 17:02
- I really like that web site and had no idea they were affiliated with the NY Times now. -- nm - David Nov 16, 16:41
- I wish they had Brady's convert percentage on 3rd/4th and 2 also - stewie Nov 16, 16:36 6
  - That it makes sense with league average performance, letting Brady take a shot, and if you miss having to give Peyton the ball, it's a slam dunk. -- nm - TFox Nov 16, 16:37 5
    - I thought you were against going for it last night. Have you changed your mind or am I misinterpreting you here? -- nm - David Nov 16, 16:43 3
      - It has been a whirlwind emotional experience for me, David. I reserve the right to change my mind to a better answer when its merited. :) - TFox Nov 16, 16:46 2
        
        As I said last night, the timeout on 1st and 10 was the one everyone should be screaming about. That should never happen. - David Nov 16, 16:51
        
        How about not running on 2nd and 3rd down before the 4th down call? - musubi Nov 16, 16:49
    - And updating the calculation with Spawn's stat earlier, the win percentage jumps to 87% going for it. -- (link) - TFox Nov 16, 16:41 [Backboard]
- i love you for posting this. thank you. -- nm - TFox Nov 16, 16:30
- that means it should be the right call all game long then. why are they ever punting? - dogbert Nov 16, 16:30 3
  - No. The statistics that he analyzed are pretty specific as to the amount of time left (and the number of timeouts left). -- nm - mara Nov 16, 16:33 2
    - and the stats are also including QB's from every terrible team in the league in coming up with the 53% TD percentage. I would be willing to bet alot - dogbert Nov 16, 16:40 1
      - right, but the better qbs skew it even further towards going for it. -- nm - TFox Nov 16, 16:42
did he not make the same call in Cleveland ? -- nm - lone canadian leafs fan Nov 16, 16:19

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