ST Alpha - "I don't buy his math. " (Reading a Post)

SlickerTalk
Search Archives
The Leaderboard
The FAQ

Down to Post

Backboards:

Posts: 162

In response to "And more evidence that it was the right call: -- (link)" by the wrong element, bad guy

I don't buy his math.

Posted by musubi Nov 16 '09, 16:42

I think there's too much noise in his historical averages to buy what he's selling.

I certainly think Belicheck's call was defensible, but I don't buy this guy's arguement that it's clearly right. It's just not convincing me.

Responses:

Brady's historical performance on 4th down is even better than what he uses. And there is no way that Peyton was only 30% to get in at the end either. -- nm - TFox Nov 16, 16:43 10
- agree. you give the colts a huge momentum swing, hand the ball to the best qb ever after showing no confidence in your defense. I would say the td was - dogbert Nov 16, 16:51 3
  - Yes, because a 79 yard TD drive in under 2 minutes gave them no momentum. - the wrong element, bad guy Nov 16, 16:55 2
    - I can only assume this is sarcasm, but it seems to show even more evidence the choice was poor. yes, indy has tons of momentum which would tip the - dogbert Nov 16, 17:01
    - Momentum is horsehockey. It was all about field position and time on the clock. - musubi Nov 16, 16:58
- Yup on both those. I am not convinced there is enough sample size for last minute drives to say those historical percentages are significant. - musubi Nov 16, 16:47 5
  - There haven't been enough two-minute drills where a team needed a touchdown to get a success rate? For shame, musubi. -- nm - TFox Nov 16, 16:49 4
    - Starting from the opponents 30? That happens almost never. - musubi Nov 16, 16:52 3
      - Also, this statement, "But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it." - musubi Nov 16, 16:57 2
        
        I agree with you on that. Drop him a comment and see if he replies. -- nm - David Nov 16, 17:00 1
        
        Maybe after I go home, it's time to roll. 'night TT. (nm) - musubi Nov 16, 17:02

Post a message top

I don't buy his math.

Replies are disabled on threads older than 7 days.