ST Alpha - "Your mistake is in taking the probablility of coming back from 3TD in the 4th quarter as a whole." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "your IM is hilarious in its inept simplicity -- nm" by Guy

Your mistake is in taking the probablility of coming back from 3TD in the 4th quarter as a whole.

Posted by Reagen (aka Reagen) Nov 20 '09, 09:55

Each TD is an independent event. Once those first two TDs are scored, the fact that they've already done something very improbable doesn't matter. That next TD (assuming enough time is left on the clock) is just as probable as any other TD.

Responses:

strategy on the field might reflect the true probability, but wouldn't the betting odds change? -- nm - Max Nov 20, 10:13 2
- can you explain that a little better? i'm not sure i follow. -- nm - TFox Nov 20, 10:14 1
  - If a 10 touchdown game is more rare historically than a 9 TD game, at the 9th TD, aren't I going to bet against the game seeing a 10th in the game? -- nm - Max Nov 20, 10:21
This is so correct, it could not possibly be rationalized otherwise. - TFox Nov 20, 10:02

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Your mistake is in taking the probablility of coming back from 3TD in the 4th quarter as a whole.

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