ST Alpha - "Having now checked out the BB discussion of the same, I *think* I'm about to back up Guy." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "Okay, I was on the fence all week, but Simmons convinced me that Belichuk screwed up on Sunday. " by Name Withheld By Request

Having now checked out the BB discussion of the same, I think I'm about to back up Guy.

Posted by Name Withheld By Request (aka BlueKopo) Nov 20 '09, 11:03

The thing about the whole "3TDs only happens four times" kinda deal isn't so much that each TD is statistically more unlikely to occur individually. Just that the particular circumstances dictate that such a scenario is incredibly rare and there's likely good reason for that.

The odds of winning an individual NFL game can be relatively high for a good team. The odds of winning 16 in a row are incredibly low. Doesn't that mean that the whole 3TDs in the 4th have some merit in that it occurs so infrequently?

Responses:

Well, it looks like Guy might have gotten that from Simmons. - the wrong element, bad guy Nov 20, 11:13 1
- yes. i didn't mention his name so as not to 'tarnish' the statistics with ST hatey -- nm - Guy Nov 20, 11:14
the difficulty in scoring 3tds in a 4Q comes from a variety of things - Reagen Nov 20, 11:08 2
- 4) limited plays to make those TD drives happen. defenses can (sometimes) adjust to what was working for the offense and stop it. -- nm - Guy Nov 20, 11:13
- That's fair, so you would have to compare the success factor vs only the games involving the situation. - Name Withheld By Request Nov 20, 11:13

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Having now checked out the BB discussion of the same, I *think* I'm about to back up Guy.

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Having now checked out the BB discussion of the same, I think I'm about to back up Guy.