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i think it will come down to Up In The Air v. Avatar for Best Picture

Posted by mr. squiggles (aka chris) Dec 21 '09, 14:19

Hurt Locker didn't make enough money to seriously contend despite the critical accolades

this feels like a year that Hollywood wants to reward a mainstream release and ignore the independents

Responses:

You don't think there'll be a major rerelease on noms? - Reagen Dec 21, 14:26 20
- Summit's marketing dept is horrible -- nm - mr. squiggles Dec 21, 14:28
- Not enough of one to matter. God help me, I agree with Pixie. -- nm - David Dec 21, 14:28 18
  - FWIW, I don't think Avatar wins unless it winds up approaching the #1 film of the year. -- nm - David Dec 21, 14:29 17
    - if its legs come even close to Titanic's, it will be hard to beat -- nm - mr. squiggles Dec 21, 14:32 16
      - How are you defining Titanic legs? Not arguing, just curious. - David Dec 21, 14:39 4
        
        It started out kind of slow and picked up steam when girls started seeing it multiple times. -- nm - the liioulu with icicles Dec 21, 14:45 3
        
        yeah, David, geez. -- nm - Reagen Dec 21, 14:46 1
        
        I'm not actually sure that it answers David's question. But it is relevant. - the liioulu with icicles Dec 21, 14:49
        
        The 6.88 legs of the HSX variety or the 20.35 legs of the overall variety. -- nm - Will Hunting Dec 21, 14:46
      - It would need to delist around $425 for that to be the case here. - Will Hunting Dec 21, 14:36 4
        
        I think this one is already up to a 35% chance of making a billion. That percentage could be doubled in 10 days. -- nm - David Dec 21, 14:40 3
        
        Not worldwide for Avatar...I mean the Titanic/Avatar combo reaching 1Bil domestic. -- nm - Will Hunting Dec 21, 14:41 2
        
        I'd say that's about 50/50 at this point. -- nm - Reagen Dec 21, 14:42
        
        I'm still thinking Avatar winds up in the 280-300 range, but we'll know a lot more in the next 6 days. -- nm - David Dec 21, 14:42
      - If that happens, winning the Oscar would be less of a story than Cameron buying Norway. -- nm - Reagen Dec 21, 14:35 4
        
        $1.51 billion domestic total! No, really. I just did the math. -- nm - David Dec 21, 14:41 3
        
        I want $400mil for my next budget. Basically, it'll be $50k on screen and then $399.950,000 for me to swim around in. - James Cameron Dec 21, 14:42 2
        
        I believe the primary difference between Cameron and everyone else is that his mega-expensive movies make you understand where the money went. - David Dec 21, 14:46
        
        Hey, it's three times now that he's spent obscene amounts of money and made it work. - Reagen Dec 21, 14:45
      - I'm not expecting it to make $70M in its 9th weekend in release. -- nm - Dano Ho Ho Dec 21, 14:35
I think it's going to be more complicated than that. With 10 nominees this year. -- nm - the liioulu with icicles Dec 21, 14:22 5
- There'll still be at most three major contenders with the rest just happy to be there. -- nm - Reagen Dec 21, 14:25 2
  - *smiles and waves* I will lambaste you all with my manganimity! -- nm - Shambo si Dec 21, 14:26
  - yup. -- nm - znufrii Dec 21, 14:26
- not really. having more noms is (1) a publicity move so that more movies can cash in on the nomination; and (2) if anything it will dilute the vote - mr. squiggles Dec 21, 14:24 1
  - It could also dilute the vote for front runners. - the liioulu with icicles Dec 21, 14:27
though i think Best Director will be Cameron v. Bigelow -- nm - mr. squiggles Dec 21, 14:21 7
- Bigelow seems to be winning most everything so far, yes? -- nm - Will Hunting Dec 21, 14:21 6
  - Interesting showdown. -- nm - the liioulu with icicles Dec 21, 14:24
  - so far. the question will be whether the academy will split the awards b/w Picture and Director if "Hurt Locker" is not Best Pic - mr. squiggles Dec 21, 14:22 4
    - [deleted] 3
      - there was about one a decade almost like clockwork. -- nm - Reagen Dec 21, 14:27
      - until the past decade, they had almost never done it in the history of the awards -- nm - mr. squiggles Dec 21, 14:25 1
        
        except for the 18 times they did. -- nm - mafic Dec 21, 14:45

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i think it will come down to Up In The Air v. Avatar for Best Picture

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