ST Alpha - "I honestly have no idea. The average film of this scale makes a factor of 1.4 beyond its holiday box office take." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "Give me your rough guess....where's it finish? -- nm" by Will Hunting

I honestly have no idea. The average film of this scale makes a factor of 1.4 beyond its holiday box office take.

Posted by David (aka David) Jan 5 '10, 13:09

In other words, take the total after the Sunday after New Year's Day and multiply it by 1.4. That's what applicable December films that have earned over $200 million have done. That's a total that puts Avatar just under $500 million. I'd been staying away from this "Titanic is in trouble" stuff because it's the same mistake people made with The Dark Knight. The problem is that until a film slows down, estimates are supposition rather than modeling and Avatar just. will. not. slow. down.

It looks likely to beat The Dark Knight. Beyond that is something we'll have a better idea about next Sunday.

Responses:

The problem with that 1.4 number is that those December blockbusters were already showing mid to large dropoffs before January. - Inigo Jan 5, 13:14 1
- I completely agree. That's why I said that about supposition. - David Jan 5, 13:18
PS: Four weeks ago today, over 65% of Yahoo readers claimed they were most excited about Sherlock Holmes. -- nm - David Jan 5, 13:12 3
- I was more excited about Sherlock Holmes. Not now, after having seen both movies -- nm - Roger More Jan 5, 13:13 1
  - More than anything, I'm amazed that one film is going to beat the other by a box office total of Iron Man. -- nm - David Jan 5, 13:19
- I still want to see it, but I am waiting for my expectations to me low enough. - Beryllium Jan 5, 13:13

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I honestly have no idea. The average film of this scale makes a factor of 1.4 beyond its holiday box office take.

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