ST Alpha - "I'm intrigued why a larger turnout is supposed to help Coakley, if the polls show Brown ahead. " (Reading a Post)

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In response to "voter turnout in Boston strong early (55k v. 24k for the whole special primary) -- (link)" by i'm gay for batman

I'm intrigued why a larger turnout is supposed to help Coakley, if the polls show Brown ahead.

Posted by Dr.Vermin also has two guns! (aka Dr.Vermin) Jan 19 '10, 14:24

My first thought would be that the larger the turnout, the more representative the crowd would be of the projection made by the polls. But that's a completely uninformed hypothesis.

Correct me?

Responses:

Pixie's mostly right. It's the "Oh wow, the Republican might win, so I better get out and vote," mentality. - Name Withheld By Request Jan 19, 14:49
Polls rely on "likely voter" models. Greater than expected turnout screws with those models making the results suspect. - TWuG Jan 19, 14:35
mostly the overwhelming Dem registration advantage in the state -- nm - i'm gay for batman Jan 19, 14:30

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I'm intrigued why a larger turnout is supposed to help Coakley, if the polls show Brown ahead.

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